See the full version of this piece at FantasyLabs
We’re in the second half of the 2018 NFL season, and we’re still on pace for a record-breaking campaign with an average of 24.0 points per game per team. The action continues with an 11-game main slate that kicks off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
In this positional breakdown, I'm looking at the tight ends at the top of the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
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Model Tight Ends
This week, there are four tight ends at the top of our individual Pro Models. The two I find most intriguing are Jordan Reed and Trey Burton.
Jordan Reed: Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 51 O/U
- $4,400 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel
UPDATE (11/10): Wide receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle) will miss Week 10.
For the past month, Reed has been in a smash spot thanks to the injury-induced absence of slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle). With all of Crowder’s middle-of-the-field targets available, Reed has looked like a strong play each week — but he’s horribly disappointed, turning his 7.8 targets into 4.5 receptions and 37.8 scoreless yards per game since Week 6. What should have been a match made in fantasy heaven with short-armed tight end-loving quarterback Alex Smith has turned into a 16-week prison sentence.
But maybe — just maybe — this is the week Reed will turn his targets into usable production.
Crowder might return this week after getting in limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday, but he’s still questionable, and even if Crowder plays, the Redskins are one of the most injured teams in the league, especially on offense.
- Wide receiver Paul Richardson: Shoulder, IR
- Running back Chris Thompson: Ribs, out
- Left tackle Trent Williams: Thumb, out
- Left guard Shawn Lauvao: knee, IR
- Right guard Brandon Scherff: pectoral, IR
- Right tackle Morgan Moses: knee, questionable – exited Week 9 with injury
Without Richardson and Thompson, there should be extra targets for Reed, and with as many as four starting offensive linemen out, the Redskins could have a quick, short-yardage passing game plan that funnels the ball to the tight end.
And Reed has a great matchup. The Bucs are 29th in pass defense against tight ends (34.0% DVOA) and have allowed a top-two mark of 14.9 FanDuel points per game to the position. Every starting-caliber tight end to face the Bucs this season has trashed them.
- Zach Ertz (Week 2): 14.9 FanDuel points, 11-94-0 receiving on 13 targets
- Vance McDonald (Week 3): 19.2 FanDuel points, 4-112-1 receiving on five targets
- Trey Burton (Week 4): 15.6 FanDuel points, 2-86-1 receiving on four targets
- Austin Hooper (Week 6): 17.6 FanDuel points, 9-71-1 receiving on 10 targets
- David Njoku (Week 7): 13.2 FanDuel points, 4-52-1 receiving on six targets
- Greg Olsen (Week 9): 16.6 FanDuel points, 6-76-1 receiving on six targets
On top of that, they are severely injured. Middle linebacker Kwon Alexander (knee, IR) is out, as is backup middle linebacker Jack Cichy (ankle, IR). In the secondary, strong safety Chris Conte (knee, IR), outside cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (shoulder, IR) and slot corner M.J. Stewart (foot) are all out. On the line, defensive end Vinny Curry (ankle) is out.
Trey Burton: Chicago Bears (-7) vs. Detroit Lions, 44 O/U
- $3,900 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
UPDATE (11/10): Wide receivers Allen Robinson (groin) and Taylor Gabriel (leg) will play after practicing in full on Friday.
Burton has had more than six targets in a game just once this year, but he’s the No. 7 fantasy tight end with 12.4 DraftKings points per game, hitting his salary-based expectations at a 75% rate.
Discounting his two duds — the only games in which he’s failed to hit the 20-yard threshold — Burton has hit 15.3 DraftKings points per game: When Burton is involved in the game, he produces.
The Lions offer an enticing matchup for Burton. The Lions have the league’s third-worst PFF coverage grade at 51.8, and against tight ends in particular they are 30th in pass defense (35.1% DVOA).
Strong safety Quandre Diggs and free safety Glover Quin have combined to allow a 74.4% catch rate in their coverage.
Lining up in the slot and out wide on 51.0% of his snaps and facing a secondary that will be more vulnerable than usual without No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay (knee), Burton has significant upside. He leads the team with five receiving touchdowns and is tied for first with eight red-zone targets and six targets inside the 10-yard line.
Read the rest of the piece on FantasyLabs.
Positional Breakdowns & News
Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
