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NFL Expert Picks: 16 Favorite Bets for Week 4

Sep 30, 2018 8:50 AM EDT
  • The Action Network's NFL experts give their favorite bets for Week 4 of the 2018 season, including one for Monday night.
  • Find out if it's different with the Patriots this time and whether Baker Mayfield and the Browns can get another win.

I think Jared Goff just completed another pass.

While the Rams are the toast of the NFL right now, there are some other major storylines ahead of the Week 4 slate, including:

  • Will the Patriots avoid losing three straight games for the first time since 2002, when they lost at home to some guy named Favre?
  • Can the Texans, Raiders and Cardinals avoid starting off 0-4, effectively ending any hope for the postseason? (Only the 1992 Chargers have recovered from an 0-4 start to make the playoffs.)
  • Can Ryan Fitzpatrick become the first player in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in four straight games?

You will see those questions touched on as you read through our staff’s favorite Week 4 NFL bets, which include picks for both Sunday and Monday Night Football. Let’s jump right in with some early Sunday afternoon action.

All odds pulled from 5Dimes overnight on Sept. 28, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


SUNDAY’S EARLY ACTION

Sean Koerner: Texans +1 (at Colts)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Texans are clearly not as bad as their 0-3 record. This divisional matchup is a must-win game for them to avoid an 0-4 start, which would essentially drop them out of the playoff picture.

On the other side, the Colts made it clear they do not trust Andrew Luck’s arm strength by bringing in Jacoby Brissett to attempt the Hail Mary throw at the end of their Week 3 loss to the Eagles.

Luck’s shoulder issues, coupled with offensive line woes, have forced the Colts to get the ball out quick with short passes. Given this predictable approach and lack of a running game, expect the Texans to take advantage with their superior pass rush.

Houston ultimately should be slight favorites in this matchup.

Matt LaMarca: Texans +1 (at Colts)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

I agree wholeheartedly with Sean about the Texans being underrated. They’ve outgained their opponents by roughly 150 yards through their first three games, and their Pythagorean expectation of 1.1-1.9 suggests they’re unlucky to be 0-3 right now.

The Texans should have winless motivation on their side, which we have seen in the past in this spot: Winless underdogs have gone 30-20-2 against the spread in Week 4 since 2005. The Colts have also looked far from impressive this season, with Luck averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

I’ll gladly take the superior side as an underdog in a desperate spot.

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Credit:

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bears defensive end Khalil Mack

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