Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No), and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
In 2025, we’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception, with only eight heading into Week 2. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Here are my two NFL interception props for Week 3:
NFL Props, Interceptions Week 3
- Jordan Love to Throw an Interception vs Browns (+105, via bet365)
- Baker Mayfield to Throw an Interception vs Jets(-105, via bet365)
Jordan Love to Throw an Interception (+105)
Through two games, the Packers look like one of the best teams in the NFL.
However, the Browns could prove to be a challenging matchup to avoid turnovers. That’s why I think even though the Packers may win this game, I expect Jordan Love to throw an interception in Week 3.
The Browns don't have an interception yet this season, but through two games, they’re posing a significant challenge to opposing run games.
The Browns have only allowed 45.5 rush yards per game and one rushing TD, which means Packers running back Josh Jacobs may not be as effective this week. Although they’ve given up five passing touchdowns, Cleveland also ranks third in receiving yards per game.
Looking at Love and how he historically performs against defensive pressure and the blitz, I’m encouraged by the possibility of an interception.
Since the start of last season, Love’s turnover-worthy-play rate nearly doubles when he sees pressure and is blitzed, which checks both boxes for the Browns as they rank top 10 in pressure rate per dropback while also ranking seventh in blitz rate.
Love will also be missing one of his top targets in TE Tucker Kraft, who is out with a knee injury. He is another weapon lost for the Packers after WR Jayden Reed got hurt.
Baker Mayfield to Throw an Interception (-105)
This isn’t a bet because I think Baker Mayfield is a bad quarterback. In fact, he’s one of my favorites to watch because he loves to sling it all over the field.
Through two games, Mayfield is averaging 35 pass attempts per contest. Throwing so much, the chances of him throwing an interception for the first time this season increase with each game.
Mayfield threw 16 interceptions last season, which was tied for first with Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins.
The thing about Mayfield is that he doesn’t really need pressure in his face to make a horrible throw in traffic. This season, he has five turnover-worthy plays when having a clean pocket, which leads the NFL.
He’s actually been a bit lucky not to have thrown one yet considering the passing frequency of the Bucs offense. This is a bit of a carryover from last season, when 62% of TWP’s came when he didn’t face pressure.
I mention this because the Jets are bottom five in pressure rate per dropback, yet they have 10 passes defended, which is tied for eighth in the NFL.
Couple all of this with the absence of left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka out or limited, and Mayfield may have multiple interceptions before the clock hits zero.
Jets +7 is also a “Luck Rankings” play from my guy Nick Giffen, so if he likes the Jets to keep it close, it’s likely because Mayfield is keeping them in it.
