NFL Odds Today: Bets, Picks for Every Game in Week 8

Here's everything you need to know about NFL odds today: the latest lines for every game, plus bets and picks for every team in every game.

Yes, all of them. Every single game. Every single team. Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you.

NFL Week 8 Betting Preview by Schedule

Below, we'll go through how to bet on every game in Week 8, with a focus on bets for fans of each teams — or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game — and my expert picks at the end.

Sunday Night Football: Bears vs Chargers Odds, Picks, Bets

• Justin Fields is out again, so get excited for a Sunday night rookie road debut for Tyson Bagent out of Division II Shepherd University. Bagent won his first start, completing 21-of-29 passes for 162 yards and a score without a turnover.
• A 2-4 team is somehow an 8.5-point favorite against a 2-5 team. The Chargers have yet to win by nine or more this season and did so only three times last year.

The Bears offense has quietly ranked above average over the past four weeks, and the offensive line is coming together nicely with a top five Run Block Win Rate. The run game is thriving, even with Fields and the top couple RBs sidelined, and that should continue to be the case against a leaky Chargers defense that's really never been able to stop the run under Brandon Staley, almost by design.

D'Onta Foreman has filled in nicely with rushing lines of 15/65 and 16/89 the last two weeks. Those are earned yards too, not some long run skewing the numbers. With a rookie QB on the road, expect the Bears to stay committed to the run game. It does look like Chicago rookie Roschon Johnson is back, so that could limit Foreman's opportunities. You can sprinkle 75+ yards at +425 (Bet365) as a nice escalator.

Hear me out, Chargers fans — haven't you ever heard of hedging on happiness?

This should be an easy one for Los Angeles. The only real way this goes sideways is if the Chargers turn it over, and Herbert has been doing that lately with four interceptions the last three games and at least one in all three. That injury seems to be bugging him, and the Bears rank top 10 in intercepted passes.

LA has to have this one to save its season. Think of it as an investment in the future.

Feels like a good Sunday night to check out early and take the family trunk-or-treating.

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Monday Night Football: Raiders vs Lions Odds, Picks, Bets

• Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared to start after missing a game with a back injury. Careful, though — that's the sort of thing that can crop up again on any play. It looked like rookie Aidan O'Connell was in line to start if Jimmy G couldn't go, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him play at some point.
• The Lions will likely be without David Montgomery and a couple offensive linemen again, but the stellar rookie class — Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs — are all off the injury report.

Garoppolo leads the league with eight interceptions, an impressive feat considering he's only played about four-and-a-half games versus seven for most starters. That interception rate will regress in time but his career rate has never been good.

Raiders backup QBs have thrown four INTs of their own, so Las Vegas quarterbacks have combined for 12 interceptions, almost two per game and at least one in every outing. There's no posted line yet, but this was -120 his last game, an implied 55%. That's low the way the Raiders are giving the ball away.

The Lions are just way better. Detroit ranks top 10 by DVOA both passing and rushing, both offense and defense. That's everything, and that's even after the drubbing the Lions took in Baltimore, which shows just how good this team has been for the season. By contrast, the Raiders rank bottom five at three of the four and have three wins only because they've eked out close ones against other bad teams.

The Lions defense has played much better at home and should respond with pride after last week, and the offense should have no problem scoring on a defense that just gave up 30 to the Bears' backups. Chicago's only real plan that game seemed to be just run everything away from Maxx Crosby, and the Raiders had no answer and lost 30-12. If the Bears can do that, just imagine what Ben Johnson's offense will do.

Lions by a million. I love this spot for Detroit, bouncing back after an embarrassing loss in front of a rare home Monday night crowd against a bad, poorly coached team. Everything about it screams Blowout City. This is my favorite spread pick of the week, and I'll also look at some Lions blowout escalators: Detroit -13.5 (+162), -20.5 (+350), and -27.5 (+870).

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Week 8 Full Betting Card, Expert Picks

• Lions -7.5 & Lions blowout escalators
• Ravens 1H -4.5
• Titans +3
• Bengals +5.5 & ML +200
• Jaylen Waddle over 57.5 receiving yards
• Nico Collins longest reception over 22.5 yards| 75+ yards (+205)
• Adam Thielen 7+ receptions (+130) | 10+ (+360)
• Jaguars 1Q -1.5 (+146) | Steelers 4Q ML (+125)
• Seahawks blowout escalator -9.5 (+215) | -13.5 (+350) | -20.5 (+830)
• Rams 1H +3.5
• Giants/Jets under 36
• Week 9 Lookahead: Texans -2.5 vs Bucs

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Games Completed/In Progress

Rams vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, Bets

• This game matches strength and strength and weakness on weakness. The Rams have been terrific offensively both running and passing at seventh overall in DVOA, but the Cowboys rank third defensively. Both teams are below average the other direction, with L. A. ranking 20th and Dallas 18th.
• The Rams face a team coming out of a bye for a second straight week. Both Sean McVay (2-5 ATS) and Matt Stafford (4-8-1 ATS) have struggled in that spot, while Dallas coach Mike McCarthy is the most profitable coach after a bye in our Action Labs system at 12-4-1 ATS.

Might this be a matchup of the best quarterbacks in the NFC? Stafford has played brilliantly, and the Rams offense is peaking at fourth in DVOA over the past four weeks now that Cooper Kupp is back on the field next to breakout rookie WR Puka Nacua. The Cowboys offense is trending the other direction, in the bottom quarter of the league over the same stretch.

The Rams have the firepower to hang with Dallas and score on this vaunted defense — at least for a while. The Rams have been far better early in games but drop off mightily in the second half: 5th in Offensive DVOA and 14th on Defense in the first half versus 17th and 27th in the second half.

It feels like Dallas will let the Rams hang around, doesn't it? The Cowboys tend to do that at times, and this is a bit of a look-ahead spot with the huge game in Philadelphia next week.

Still, there's enough of a talent differential for the Cowboys to win out in the end. Micah Parsons and Dallas's No. 1 Pass Rush Win Rate will eventually beat a leaky Rams line, and Stafford hasn't been good over the middle where Dallas is vulnerable.

Trust Dallas to find enough answers following a bye, even if it's not comfortable.  If you prefer, you can wait and bet Dallas live on the moneyline or at -2.5 or below if this stays tight early.

This line feels too high as well as the Rams are playing offensively. Dallas might have too much talent late, but LA can hang around until halftime, and the inflated game line gets us above a key number for the first half. A tie or even down a field goal is good enough! Trust those Rams first half trends.

Los Angeles is +230 to lead at the half if you want to get aggressive.

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Jaguars vs Steelers Odds, Picks, Bets

• The Jaguars are banged up and exhausted. This is the final week after a brutal month that included two games in London, no bye before a return home, then a short week before a Thursday game. This is one last road trip before a badly needed bye week at last.
• Jacksonville has a long list of questionable players expected to play through injury, including Trevor Lawrence, guards Walker Little and Brandon Scherff, CB Tyson Campbell, and S Andre Cisco. With the bye week up next, don't be surprised if some of these guys end up sitting or playing limited minutes.

It looks like the Jaguars might just be the much better team, and if they are, we might know quickly.

Jacksonville ranks second in DVOA the last four weeks, including top six on both offense and defense. That improved defense looks like a massive mismatch against a struggling Steelers offense that's been particularly terrible early in games, dead last in first half DVOA.

The Jaguars have been better early, and the offense has done well getting an early lead with its scripted plays. After this long month and with all the Jacksonville injuries, it wouldn't be shocking to see things go sideways late on the road. Get your money early and get out.

You already know this is a Rah Rah Mike Tomlin underdog spot. Tomlin is 72% ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, and he's 16-4-3 ats (80%) as a home dog of seven or less.

The Steelers are outmatched on paper here, but what else is new? Tomlin always seems to find a way to hang around. Pittsburgh has been far better in the second half — sixth on offense and fifth on defense by DVOA versus 22nd and 32nd earlier — so this sets up for the usual Pittsburgh comeback script.

You've seen it the last two games. Pittsburgh beat the Ravens and Rams by winning 14-0 in each fourth quarter. The game script sets up well for the Steelers late, especially if Jacksonville tires out at the end of its long month. If you really want to get frisky, you can bet Pittsburgh to trail at the half but win at +850 (FanDuel).

I'm not totally convinced this is a great Rah Rah Tomlin spot. Feels like a trap, especially at Jacksonville -2.5. I'd rather split my bet, isolate, and play both Jaguars early and Steelers late at plus money. At least one should hit and make us profitable, and we might well get both. I like the Pittsburgh angle because it works if the Steelers are good but might also cash if they're bad but get some garbage time late.

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Vikings vs Packers Odds, Picks, Bets

• The Packers continue to monitor big injury names. It looks like both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones will play, albeit somewhat limited. G Elgton Jenkins will play and stabilize the line with David Bahktiari sidelined. CB Jaire Alexander looks like a true game-time decision.
• For whatever reason, this division rivalry hasn't typically been close of late. The Vikings won only one of 12 games, then the Packers won just one of seven. They've split the last three years, but five of the last seven games did not finish within one score.

If you've watched any Packers games this season, you know they've been miserable in the first half. Green Bay's offense just can't get it going early. Even in the huge Opening Day win against the Bears, most of the scoring came in the second half.

Green Bay's offense ranks 30th in DVOA in the first half but leaps to fifth after halftime. The Vikings defense also matches that trend, with Brian Flores's unit fourth in first half DVOA. Flores has quietly done an incredible job with this defense. They're top five in DVOA on that side of the ball the last four weeks, while Green Bay's offense ranks 29th overall during that stretch. Count on Minnesota's defense early.

This looks like a great buy low/sell high spot. The Vikings are flying high after Monday night's shocking win over the 49ers, but that's the exact spot to sell on a team, and the Packers are playing for their season.

Matt LaFleur is 14-6 ATS (70%) after a loss. He's also 16-7 ATS (70%) as an underdog, including 4-2 ATS as a division dog. Jordan Love already won outright earlier this season as a short home dog. You don't get to bet on the Packers as home underdogs often. They've only been dogs of 2+ points nine times since 2006 when the starting QB plays, and they're 7-2 ATS in those games.

As a Vikings fan, I have way too much invested in this one emotionally to need any money tied to it. Looks like an unpredictable toss up.

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Eagles vs Commanders Odds, Picks, Bets

• Jalen Hurts does not appear to be fully healthy. He wore a knee brace during the second half last week for precautionary reasons but is not on the injury report.
• Philadelphia has won 10 of the last 13 meetings in this division rivalry, but it's been competitive lately. Washington embarrassed the Eagles in Philly last fall and took them to overtime in September.

Just trust the better team. Washington shouldn't be able to run on this No. 1 run defense by DVOA, and Haasan Reddick and the pass rush should get after Sam Howell all game with his propensity to eat sacks. The Commanders also have no answer for A.J. Brown or, like most other teams, in the trenches.

Now that the full game line is a touchdown, duck the big number and play just the first half. Washington has been terrible early on, bottom four by DVOA on both offense and defense in the first half. Trust the Eagles to set the tone and take control early.

Philadelphia's pass defense has been surprisingly beatable, and the Eagles have been especially bad against opposing tight ends. They rank dead last against tight ends by DVOA.

Logan Thomas has gone over 32.5 receiving yards in four of six games this season, including all three losses when Washington is passing late. He was over against the Eagles with 41 yards. This looks like a nice over, and you can also play 50+ yards as an escalator at +270 (Bet365).

Philadelphia is the better team, but division games on the road are always tricky and Washington has played the Eagles tight lately. Philly might also be looking ahead to Dallas next week. I'll stay away.

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Patriots vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, Bets

• The home team usually wins in this division rivalry. New England has won eight of 11 at home but has long struggled in Miami, where the Dolphins have won eight of their last 10 against the Patriots.
• Despite New England's win over Buffalo, both teams are trending down. Miami is actually below league average in DVOA the last four weeks, and New England's defense ranks in the bottom 10 and is feeling the loss of Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez.
• Miami's drop off coincides with injuries. The offensive line is missing its LT, LG, and C again, which can kill an entire offense. It sounds like Tyreek Hill and Xavien Howard will play, but Jevon Holland is still in concussion protocol and it looks too early for Jalen Ramsey.

Bill Belichick proved he's still got something in the tank last week, and you've seen enough of these games against high-powered offenses to know what to expect. Belichick will grind the game down, run the ball against a bad rushing defense to chew up the clock and keep Miami's offense on the sidelines to ugly the game up and keep things close.

A windy day should help the under, and Mac Jones road unders are 12-6 (67%) for his career. Under 47 makes this a high line for the Dolphins, so it makes sense to play both angles together. New England is good at defending outside runs and deep balls, so it sets up well for the Patriots and the first matchup would've hit this SGP in September.

Even with Tyreek Hill likely to play, this sets up as a Jaylen Waddle game. New England's pass defense has been great at two specific things: limiting deep balls and shutting down opposing WR1s. The Patriots rank first by DVOA against opposing WR1s, and they held Tyreek Hill to five catches for 40 yards in September.

Of course, the problem for Dolphins opponents is that Miami has two stud WRs with blazing speed. Waddle's numbers have been a bit suppressed by blowout scripts so far, but he had 86 yards against the Patriots in September and is averaging 60 yards a game. He's listed at +175 for 75 yards and +475 for 100 (Bet365), and those look like nice escalators  since he can always break off a long one.

I was eyeing this angle early praying Tyreek Hill would actually play since I need him to soak up New England's WR1 coverage. Happy to lock in this number now that Hill looks set to go. I want to believe Miami's offense gets right with a huge game, but all the offensive line injuries are a real concern.

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Texans vs Panthers Odds, Picks, Bets

• For the fifth time in NFL history, QBs drafted first (Bryce Young) and second (C.J. Stroud) overall will face off as rookies. Three of the last four matchups have gone to No. 2, and No. 2 draft picks are a perfect 7-0 SU against No. 1 picks over the past decade, per Cameron Wolfe.
• Both teams are coming off an early bye week, which should be huge for both rookie QBs. Carolina will break in a new play caller in Thomas Brown. Trends after the bye week favor both road favorites and home underdogs and cancel out in this case, though Frank Reich is 3-0-1 ATS after the bye.
• The teams are going in opposite directions in terms of health. Houston is finally close to full strength in the secondary and on the offensive line, but Carolina is missing three of its best defensive starters.

Coming into the season, much was made about C.J. Stroud not having good weapons, but Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell have put those concerns swiftly to bed. Collins is averaging 91 yards a game, and he leads the league at 18.9 yards per catch. Carolina is missing its best corner and has been bad against WR1s.

Collins has been a weekly deep threat for the Texans, and he has reeled in a catch of at least 25 yards every game this season, which means he's hit this over 100% of the time. You can also play Collins to hit 75 yards at +205 at bet365, something he's done in four of six games already.

Thielen has become Bryce Young's security blanket in a huge way. After a quiet Carolina debut, he's racked up at least seven catches in five straight games for the Panthers and we've already profited from his big games a few times in this column.

Thielen's lines have risen over the past month but he's still plus money to do what he's done each of the past five games, and he's had 11 catches in three of the past four. You never know how that holds up under a new play caller, so don't get overconfident, but Thielen should keep getting fed.

I bet the Texans -3 on the Lookahead last week specifically to avoid the line moving past the key number. I still lean Houston, but -3.5 feels too steep for a rookie QB/coach combo on the road, especially with the variable of Brown calling plays for the first time. Instead, I'll ride with receiver overs on both sides and hope for the shootout Stuckey predicted in the Six Pack this week.

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Falcons vs Titans Odds, Picks, Bets

• Ryan Tannehill remains out, so Titans rookie Will Levis will make his debut at QB.
• Desmond Ridder finally covered a first half last spread for the first time in his professional career last week — by one point! — so he's 1-10 ATS in the first half. He also got his first road win, now 1-4 SU on the road.
• The Titans are coming off a bye and might be shifting toward the future. They traded star S Kevin Byard, and this could be the final game in a Titans uniform for players like Derrick Henry or DeAndre Hopkins.

This total has dropped throughout the week but hasn't moved far enough. One team debuts a rookie QB and the opposing QB makes just his 12th start and hasn't been any good.

These teams are a Spider-Man meme. The DVOA metrics on both sides of the ball are comically similar, and it's no wonder since Arthur Smith came over from Tennessee. Both teams skew very run-heavy, and both defenses have been terrific against the run. That should make for an ugly, low-scoring game with points at a premium.

Unders at 37 or below since November 2019 are 20-5-1 (80%). So, when scoring is suppressed, books simply can't set a total low enough. Totals at 35.5 or below since 2012 are 5-1 to the under.

When the total is this low and points are so hard to come by, three points is a lot — especially for a home underdog like Mike Vrabel. Vrabel is 61% ATS as a home underdog, and he's 68% ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. When he's a home dog of three or more points, he's a ridiculous 8-4 SU, with bettors seeing an awesome 83% ROI on the moneyline.

The Titans will play hard no matter what, and Tennessee had the bye week to get Levis ready and prep for a matchup against its old offensive coordinator, so advantage Vrabel. He's 5-0 ATS coming out of the bye, and Tennessee has been far better at home (8th in Defensive DVOA and 15th on offense) than on the road (25th and 30th).

I can't believe I'm backing Levis, a rookie QB that I have zero belief in, but sometimes betting is gross. I'm not sure Ridder on the road is much better than Levis, and I trust Vrabel and the points in this Spider-Man meme matchup.

Underdogs of four or less in games with totals under 42 have covered 64% of the time since 2018, including 70% this year. They're 10-2 ATS (83%) with a total under 37 like this one. Be sure to get the key number +3 if you can, but take +2.5 if you must, or pivot to Titans moneyline instead.

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Jets vs Giants Odds, Picks, Bets

• Tyrod Taylor will make his third consecutive start for the Giants as Daniel Jones remains sidelined.
• Both teams may be missing three offensive linemen starters, including all four starting tackles.
• The Jets are 0-6 ATS in first halves so far this season.

This total keeps dropping, and it hasn't dropped far enough. New York's offense is dreadful. That sentence works both ways, but it's especially true of the Giants, who rank dead last in Offensive DVOA and bottom two in both passing and rushing.

The Giants offense has played 28 quarters of football this season. It has found the endzone in four of them. New York is averaging 12.1 PPG, and that's including a 31-point half. Take away that second-half outburst against the terrible Cardinals, and the Giants are at 8.3 PPG. Woof.

As low as this line seems, the Giants have gone under it in six of seven games. Trust the one good unit on the field — the Jets defense.

If you're betting anything but an under in this game, you're doing it wrong. The Jets and Giants both rank bottom five in Offensive DVOA, and Taylor and Zach Wilson are two of the league's worst starting quarterbacks playing behind makeshift offensive lines.

We already know the Giants offense won't score on a good Jets defense, but the truth is that both defenses are trending up. The Giants defense is above league average itself by DVOA over the past four weeks, and it's also been better at home. Unders at 37 or below since November 2019 are 20-5-1 (80%).

How low can you go? When the total dips this low, recent history says the answer is "not low enough." Books just can't adjust far enough for the extreme outliers, and the offenses look extremely outmatched in this game, especially with all the offensive line injuries.

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Saints vs Colts Odds, Picks, Bets

• Bettors have been steaming Colts overs for a few weeks now. Last week's game finished 39-38, and this total has leapt from 40.5 on Sunday morning to 43.5 as money continues to roll in on the over.
• The Saints and Colts both have better underlying numbers than you think. They rank 15th and 12th in DVOA, both among the top seven teams in their respective conferences, aka potential playoff teams.

The rise in the total may have created some value on the under, especially since the total crossed multiple key numbers.

Both defenses are better than both offenses. Gus Bradley's Colts defense has been its typical stout self, and the Saints defense has been terrific, as usual, and even better on the road. Both defenses are beatable on first down but neither offense has been good enough to take advantage.

Bettors are playing Colts tempo with the overs, but fade the trend and play an under.

When the line is a coin flip, it's usually a good idea to take a look at the quarterbacks and coaches. Derek Carr is playing poorly through injury, so he and Gardner Minshew might be a wash. But the head coach matchup skews heavily in Indianapolis's favor.

This is a lost season without Anthony Richardson, but it sure looks like Indy has found both its QB and its coach of the future. Steichen has been outstanding managing the game and giving his offense chances to succeed — like last Sunday when the Colts dropped 38 on Cleveland with nine plays of 17+ yards.

Dennis Allen is 4-13-1 ATS (24%) as a favorite and might be the worst head coach in the league. He's 6-9 SU as a favorite of five or less. Carr is 17-34-1 ATS (33%) as a favorite too. If they're gonna keep making Dennis Allen a favorite, we might as well keep betting against him.

This game feels like a true coin flip and is priced accordingly. I see no value on either side between two super unpredictable teams.

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Bengals vs 49ers Odds, Picks, Bets

• Brock Purdy entered the concussion protocol midweek as this line dropped from 49ers -6 to -3.5, he's officially out of protocol and cleared to play as of Saturday afternoon. The line has moved back to -5.5 and continues to creep up. Backup Sam Darnold would play if Purdy can't go.
• The Bengals are coming out of a bye week, which means this might be the healthiest Joe Burrow has been all season. Burrow's initial injury came in late July, and he re-aggravated it early in the season, but this is around the timeline when Burrow was expected to be healthy. Even as Cincinnati has won games in recent weeks, Burrow's numbers haven't been great, and neither have the Bengals offense.
• Purdy and Burrow aren't the only major injury question marks. San Francisco could still be without its most important player on offense — stud LT Trent Williams, who is listed as questionable. Deebo Samuel is out, though Christian McCaffrey appears to be fine. Tee Higgins and Chidobe Awuzie both look good to go for Cincinnati too.

Nothing on paper so far this season says to bet the Bengals. Cincinnati's offense ranks bottom 10 by DVOA both rushing and passing. The run defense has been miserable, a problem against such a creative rushing attack, and the defense has been bad over the middle where San Francisco is so good. Cincinnati's offensive line metrics have been awful, and the defense has struggled on the road. On paper, this is a mismatch.

But the stat sheet doesn't know Joe Burrow like we do.

Including the playoffs, Burrow is 14-2 ATS (88%) lifetime as an underdog of three or more points. Both of those failed covers came his rookie season too, so he's a perfect 9-0 ATS in that spot since then. And he's not just covering. Burrow is 7-2 SU in those games. A $100 bettor that blindly bet Burrow as an underdog of three or more anytime since his rookie season would be up $1,078, an absurd 120% ROI. Burrow hasn't lost by more than a field goal as an underdog in any game since his rookie season, including the playoffs.

But you already know all that. This is Joe Cool. This is what he does. This team lives for these underdog moments. Who Dey!

San Francisco is stumbling into the bye week with all these injuries, losers of two straight. An offense that had been rolling has scored just 17 points in each of the last two games, and this dip was always going to come as the injuries mounted. The 49ers offensive line is pretty shaky without Trent Williams, and no Deebo Samuel limits Kyle Shanahan's creativity some too.

Luckily, the Bengals offense hasn't been great and isn't healthy itself, so this is a time to bet on San Francisco's defense and count on a close, lower scoring game. Burrow road unders have been profitable at 16-9 (64%). This total has trended down but is still just above a few key numbers, so grab it at 43.5.

The allure of Joe Shiesty as an underdog is just too strong to pass up on. The Bengals haven't been good, but this is such a great spot coming out of a bye week, getting healthy, against a 49ers offense with all sorts of injury issues in need of its own bye. I'll trust the Burrow underdog trends and let him do what he does best — shut up the naysayers and win us money.

With Purdy now cleared, you may want to wait til closer to kickoff to place your bets since it wouldn't be a surprise to see this get back to 49ers -6 and buy us a key number.

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Broncos vs Chiefs Odds, Picks, Bets

• The Chiefs own the Broncos. Kansas City has won 16 straight against its division rival, including a 19-8 victory two weeks ago on a Thursday night. The Broncos have at least been competitive at home though, keeping five of the last seven matchups within six points.
• It's only October but might feel like January football on Sunday with a forecast in the 20s with snow in Denver. Russell Wilson is 25-17 ATS (60%) playing outdoors at 45 degrees or below.

Denver's defensive ratings are screwed for the season after giving up 70 to Miami, but the D has improved a lot since, with just 36 points allowed the last two weeks — and remember, one of those games came against these Chiefs.

Trends like the under here. Games with a home underdog have gone under 61% of the time the last two seasons, and unders with a total above 44 are 69% for 7-to-11-point dogs. And if the game does go under, that makes it even tougher for a team to cover by more than a touchdown. The Chiefs have been better covering big spreads this season but usually aren't great in that spot.

Denver has a big home advantage in the cold and snow. The Broncos offense has been far better at home (10th in DVOA versus 26th on the road), while the Chiefs defense has been much worse on the road (15th vs fourth). Sean Payton (60% ATS) and Russell Wilson (66% ATS) are usually profitable underdogs, and they're each 69% ATS as division dogs.

Play both angles together since they're correlated, and be sure to grab +7.5 and 47.5 if you can since both are right above the most important key numbers.

This line feels too high. Patrick Mahomes owns the Broncos, but even he hasn't been winning by much in Denver. Just look at his margins of victory in Colorado: 3, 4, 24, 27, 4, and 6. The Broncos usually find a way to keep things close, and that's the direction this one leans too.

But Pat will find a way. So bet on the Chiefs to win a close one, winning by six or less at +300. You can find that under Scoring Margin at most books or just create it yourself with a Chiefs ML & Broncos +6.5 SGP.

I don't mind the Broncos cover/under SGP, but I only like it above +7 and 47, and that's only available at FanDuel as of publishing, and at a severe discount on the line. I don't need to bet against Pat that badly.

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Browns vs Seahawks Odds, Picks, Bets

• P.J. Walker makes another start for Cleveland with Deshaun Watson out again. Seattle is missing the right side of its offensive line, which could be problematic against an elite Browns defense that ranks top four in both Pass Rush and Run Stop Win Rate.
• Cleveland might not be the only great defense in this game. Seattle ranks top five in both EPA and DVOA over the last four weeks defensively.

The Browns may have won 39-38 last week, but this is still a team built on its defense, and even that win last week was almost single-handedly Myles Garrett taking over. Jim Schwartz's defense could wreak havoc on Seattle's banged up offensive line, and Geno Smith typically struggles under pressure.

Cleveland's offense has bottomed out — most of those points last week either came on long broken plays or thanks to defensive brilliance. Neither team should score much here, and a lower scoring game is in Cleveland's favor. Kevin Stefanski is 12-7-1 to the under (63%) with totals below 44, and games with totals at 38 or below that dropped at least 4.5 since open like this one are 29-11-2 to the under (73%).

We'll see what Geno Smith and the offense can do against Cleveland's suddenly beatable defense, but the huge mismatch here is on the other side of the ball. Seattle's defense is balling, and Cleveland's offense is worst in the league by DVOA over the past four weeks.

The Browns are not built to play from behind with Walker, so if Seattle plays well, there's a chance this game gets blown wide open. The Seahawks offense has been outstanding by most metrics but terrible on third downs and in the red zone, two areas the Browns have been particularly good. Both of those tend to regress to the mean, so if Seattle converts and the defense holds Cleveland, this could get ugly.

Three of Seattle's four wins have come by double digits. That includes a 24-3 win earlier this month, and the Browns lost 28-3 one day before that. There's real blowout potential here.

I really like the Seahawks in this spot and made Seattle -2.5 my Hot Read, but our read was right and now we've flipped past the key number and lost much of the value. I still like Seattle, but rather than chase the key number, I'll get aggressive with a blowout escalator. The Seahawks are really good and due for a breakout game just like the Ravens were last week before dominating the Lions.

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Ravens vs Cardinals Odds, Picks, Bets

• After last week's dominant 38-6 win over the Lions, Baltimore jumped from sixth to first in overall DVOA and from 10th to fifth on offense. The Ravens are playing like the best team in football.
• The Cardinals lost a fourth straight game by double digits, and Arizona has failed to cover all four games since its shocking win against the Cowboys. The Cardinals were tabbed as the worst team in football before the season, and after a three-game juke to start the year, they're starting to play like it.

Todd Monken's offense hit its stride last week against Detroit, and it feels like the Ravens offense can pretty much name its score against the 31st ranked DVOA defense. Baltimore's offense has been far better in the first half, where it ranks third instead of 20th in the second half, which makes sense since that includes those early scripted plays the reformed offense practiced all week.

Ravens bettors know Lamar Jackson is a first half king. He's 42-24-2 ATS (64%) in first halves for his career, including 5-2 this season. Just look at the halftime scores of the last four Ravens games: 21-3, 10-3, 18-3, and 28-0. Three field goals allowed and an average lead of 17 points! This team is not messing around. With an inflated full-game line at -9.5, play just the first half to get below -7 and grab an early win.

Look, you don't have to do this. The Cardinals gave it the ol' college try for three games. This team is tanking, and we both know it. There are other sports! Your team is playing in the World Series!!

Regardless of how Game 2 goes Saturday night, bet the Diamondbacks moneyline in Game 3. The tastefully named Brandon Pfaadt is the rookie breakout star pitcher of the playoffs at a 2.70 ERA with 22 strikeouts and just two walks in four postseason starts. We're getting him, likely at a plus number, against the overrated Max Scherzer? Say no more.

This pick comes from our NFL/MLB/everything Renaissance man Anthony Dabbundo, so I give it my full blessing and it's far a far better use of your time and money than anything Cardinals.

Catch Dabbundo and the guys on the Payoff Pitch podcast and read his weekly NFL picks column too! #SnakesAlive

It's really hard to imagine anything other than a dominant win by the Ravens.

I was strongly considering Baltimore -8.5 earlier this week then pivoted to the first half angle once it jumped to -9.5, but I don't mind the full game if you prefer that. Games very rarely finish with a nine-point margin, so that line move was about teaser protection — now a standard six-point teaser only moves -9.5 to -3.5, still above the key number.

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