NFL Picks Week 8: Bets on Vikings vs Packers, More
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones.
All 32 NFL teams are in action in Week 8 as we get a break from bye week mania and near the halfway point of the regular season.
The Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions both came crashing back down to earth, while the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs re-established themselves as the Super Bowl favorites from their respective conferences. The Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers took puzzling losses that leave them in moderately concerning positions, while the Baltimore Ravens played their most dominant game by DVOA since at least 1996.
Week 7 showed more than ever how much you can't overreact to a few weeks worth of sample, data or games in the NFL, and here are my thoughts on all 16 contests in Week 8.
My picks are 22-14-1 (61.1%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 8 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Buccaneers vs. Bills
Another week where there's still a lot of market love for the Bills defense that just really isn't warranted anymore given the injury situation.
I wrote in this column that I was concerned that a backup Giants quarterback and a makeshift offensive line managed six out of 10 drives with at least 30 yards against the Bills in Buffalo. A week later, the Bills defense — without DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White — surrendered 29 points to Mac Jones and the previously lifeless Patriots. New England totaled 365 total yards, 6.6 yards per play and scored on six of the nine drives they had in the game.
It would have been fair to view the Bills as a top-eight defense preseason and they'd played as such early on. But that hasn't been the case at all in the last three games.
There are major coverage holes in the secondary and the pass rush isn't doing enough to compensate for that. I've also been a major skeptic of the Buccaneers offense with Baker Mayfield, which ranks dead last in early down success rate and 29th in overall success rate this season. Mayfield has created some real third-down magic, but that's really hard to sustain for an entire season.
We've seen the offense start to regress in the last two weeks, and there could be more looming for this offense. I want to keep fading this overrated Buffalo defense but given the Buccaneers' offensive futility, I'll be waiting for future weeks to actually bet against the Bills
Verdict: Pass
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The Passes
Raiders vs. Lions
Turns out the Lions defense wasn't as good as maybe some (myself included) thought, considering their 38-6 drubbing in Baltimore. That was a good dose of reality for Jared Goff and the Lions, who now return home to their indoor confines to beat up on the Raiders.
Las Vegas is a bottom-five team in the NFL, and it doesn't matter to me that they have three wins already. The Raiders' three wins are Denver by one, Green Bay by four and New England by four.
We'll see who's starting at quarterback before making a bet as the status of Jimmy Garappolo remains uncertain, but Detroit looks like an excellent teaser piece at -8. If it isn't Garappolo, the Raiders starting Brian Hoyer over Aidan O'Connell at this point in their respective careers is coaching and franchise malpractice. The Lions offensive line should be able to dominate a weak Raiders run defense.
Verdict: Pass
Eagles vs. Commanders
The biggest takeaway from Sunday night for me is confirmation of Jalen Hurts not being 100% healthy. He played the second half of the Miami game with a leg brace on his left leg and hasn't looked totally right in his movements for the majority of the season. He's made more mistakes, missed more easy throws and not been as explosive running out of the pocket.
A.J. Brown suggested as much after the Eagles win against Miami Sunday when he said he didn't want to share Hurts' business but that he was toughing it out anyway. It's impossible to know what the Hurts injury is exactly, but that won't stop the Eagles offense from being one of the best in the league.
The concern in this matchup is the Commanders have major holes in the secondary and have given up a ton of explosive passes in the last month against the Bears, the Giants and the Falcons. Philadelphia has major matchup advantages on the outside with DeVonta Smith and Brown winning one-on-one matchups.
The question here is whether or not Sam Howell can replicate his elite showing from the first meeting in Philadelphia. Howell had a 0.29 EPA per play in that game and the offense overcame the five sacks he took. Sack avoidance is a QB skill and it tends to be relatively sticky year over year. Howell is on pace to take the most sacks in NFL history this year, and I'm not at all convinced the offense can keep overcoming that.
They managed 26 first downs and 31 points in Philly a month ago, but I'll be passing on the rematch. The Eagles secondary remains gettable, but Howell's sacks are a huge red flag. I would need more than seven to bet the Commanders.
Verdict: Pass
Saints vs. Colts
This total somehow opened below 41, but those numbers didn't last long. The market has taken over money on the Colts for weeks.
Indianapolis is the only team in the NFL to score 20 points in every game. Shane Steichen has increased their pace considerably as a unit and the defense has major holes in the secondary due to injury and along the defensive front now that Grover Stewart is suspended.
The Saints defense remains a top-half unit that should cause real issues for Gardner Minshew here, but this line is priced right for me now that the total is up to 43.5.
Minshew's turnover-prone nature has really shown in the last two weeks, but I can't find myself backing the Saints at any point this season given how much lower I was on them preseason than the market.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Chargers
I thought we'd get a better number to play the under in this game. The market is clearly overvaluing the Chargers offense right now, and Justin Herbert is not operating close to his peak efficiency. It could be the injury to his index finger on his left hand. It could be that the problem was never Joe Lombardi and that Herbert just isn't consistent enough on a play-to-play basis.
One thing is for sure: I'm not about to become a Tyson Bagent believer after one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Will need to see a lot more from Bagent until I can get a proper rating on him.
The Chargers rank 28th in success rate in Weeks 3-7. Imagine saying that preseason.
Verdict: Pass
Chiefs vs. Broncos
The Broncos have been one of the worst second-half offenses in the NFL once you get off the script. If you combine that with the Chiefs' significantly improved defense this year — Kansas City is now top five in offense, defense and special teams DVOA — it becomes harder to make a case for the Broncos to stay in this game.
Denver hasn't beaten the Chiefs since Peyton Manning roamed the sidelines, and Patrick Mahomes has never lost a divisional road game. We've written ad nauseam on this site about the Chiefs' poor against-the-spread numbers since 2020 when laying more than a field goal.
Kansas City is now 4-1 against the spread when laying more than a field goal this season. The improved defense is the main reason why, and that was on full display in the two games against the Broncos and Chargers.
The Chiefs' offensive line still has issues, but Mahomes masks any of those real concerns by himself. The current market price is correct on the total after it opened too low, so I'll be sitting out this divisional rematch.
Verdict: Pass
Browns vs. Seahawks
I'll keep writing every week about how I'm higher than the market on the Seahawks offense, because on a play-to-play basis it's been quite good. There have been a lot of high-leverage struggles for this group on third down and in the red zone, but the Seahawks' yards-per-drive metrics and success rates are quite encouraging overall.
There's something weird happening with this Deshaun Watson injury situation. I don't expect him to play in this game, because it's obvious from his play early in Indianapolis that he's not close to healthy. The Browns absolutely stole that victory in Indianapolis last week, too. The officials aided the final drive touchdown with missed calls.
The Browns got dominated in the box score, and this defense showed that we should never overreact to small sample performances in the NFL, especially on defense.
Verdict: Pass
Rams vs. Cowboys
Only four quarterbacks have a lower average depth of target (aDOT) than Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have completely changed the offense to use underneath stuff and YAC to try to make things easier for Prescott after he led the league in tight window throws last year.
The Cowboys have been a consistent top-five offense in yards per play almost every year for the last three or four, but they've fallen to 20th this season. The offense is also down to 13th in success rate, 11th in EPA per play and 17th in rushing EPA.
When you add in the defensive injuries to this mix, you start to wonder how good this Cowboys team really is. They had a quality win on the road against the Chargers and do get the advantage now of coming off a bye.
For me, this is a good barometer game. The Cowboys should be able to throw the ball efficiently on this Rams defense, and this will be a great test to see if the elite pass rush can overcome the Cowboys' potential secondary deficiencies. The Chargers had open receivers against Dallas, Herbert just missed them. Brock Purdy did not the week before that.
With the Eagles on deck for the Cowboys, I'll be watching Dallas closely but I don't see value in the number here.
Verdict: Pass
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The Leans
Patriots vs. Dolphins
A closer look at Miami leaves you wondering how good they actually are. The Dolphins ran it up on Carolina and Denver when they had the opportunity, but they were handled comfortably in their road trips to Buffalo and Philadelphia. The Dolphins defense, especially, just isn't getting enough stops to warrant these inflated spreads.
Bill Belichick had a clear game plan in the teams' Week 2 meeting to not let the Dolphins beat him down the field. He forced Miami to run the ball and be extremely methodical in moving the ball. It hasn't been clear, because of how much the offense and special teams have given points to the opponent, but the Patriots defense has been quietly solid once again.
The Patriots rank second in rushing success rate allowed, and if Belichick goes to the same approach as in Week 2, then he'll let the Dolphins be efficient running in order to improve the pass defense. That strategy is perfect for the underdog role.
Both offenses will be slow and methodical, which will keep the clock churning and the possessions lower. The Patriots can move the ball on this defense, which is bottom five in success rate allowed for the season.
If this number gets above 10, I'm betting New England again.
Verdict: Lean New England +9.5 (Bet above 10)
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Falcons vs. Titans
If you follow me in the Action App, then you'd see I bet the Tennessee/Atlanta under 37.5 on Sunday night when this line opened.
The total should really be 35 given the quarterback situation with Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill out injured. We've seen more than enough from Malik Willis to know he's not even really a backup QB in the NFL. Mike Vrabel had so little faith in Willis that the team signed Joshua Dobbs off the street and started him in a do-or-die divisional game against the Jaguars in Week 18 last season.
There were 63 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays registered last year. Willis ranked 59th with a -0.22 EPA + CPOE composite. The only quarterbacks worse were Anthony Brown, Trace McSorley, Bryce Perkins and Trey Lance (Lance played almost all of his snaps in a heavy rainstorm).
There's also the belief that Will Levis will be a big part of the game for the Titans. If Levis couldn't even beat Willis out of training camp to earn the backup spot despite Vrabel's general apprehension about Willis, that doesn't offer much optimism for what Levis will bring as a rookie.
Atlanta has really moved the ball well up and down the field in recent weeks, but Desmond Ridder's inconsistency and lack of precision have hurt them in the red zone. It's extremely hard to run on Tennessee, and Ridder isn't the quarterback to exploit the Titans' weaknesses in the secondary.
If this gets back to 37, I'd grab the under at that key number. Otherwise, just a lean for me at under 36.5.
Verdict: Lean Under 36.5 (Play at 37)
Bengals vs. 49ers
Two weeks after the 49ers were crowned this year's October Super Bowl champions following their national television demolition of the Cowboys, they're tied in the loss column with the Seahawks in the NFC West.
The 49ers have struggled to overcome injuries to Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on offense, but perhaps more surprising was the defense's inability to handle the Vikings offense on Monday night. Minnesota had nine drives in the game. The Vikings averaged 6.8 yards per play and totaled 452 yards of offense. Only one drive failed to gain at least 30 yards and it was the opening drive interception from Kirk Cousins. Only two of the nine drives failed to move the ball into scoring position.
I thought the Cardinals game was a turning point for the Bengals offense, but it was not at all. They were even worse against Seattle and stole that victory at home. Now off the bye, I have no idea what to expect from Burrow.
I'd lean toward the Niners based on our Action Network Luck Rankings, but no bet for me on this game because of the Burrow uncertainty.
Verdict: Lean 49ers -5.5
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The Plays
Texans vs. Panthers
The Panthers have yet to cover a game against the spread. They had a Week 2 push on a backdoor touchdown at home against the Saints and have since lost four in a row both straight-up and against the spread. The Panthers will have a new offensive play-caller with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown taking over for Frank Reich after their bye.
The Panthers will get right guard Austin Corbett back, and if there was ever a time to believe in this version of Carolina, off the bye is the time to do it. I've backed the Texans multiple times in this column, but the idea that they'd ever be laying three this season on the road is pretty wild to think about.
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One major key for the Panthers is the pass rush: They rank 10th in pass rush win rate as a unit. The run defense has been so bad that they've fallen behind early and not had a chance to play their way back into games. They can get pressure on C.J. Stroud, who had major struggles with it at Ohio State.
Ultimately, you're making the case to buy low on Carolina, which hasn't covered all year. No one wants to bet this team, especially after they were +14 and leading the Dolphins 14-0 two weeks ago but still failed to cover in a 42-21 loss.
The Panthers have had a historically bad run defense, but they now get to face a 29th-ranked rush offense by success rate in Houston. Carolina actually has a higher offensive success rate than Houston, especially on early downs. The Texans will struggle to run the ball on early downs and that will open up the Panthers to get pressure on Stroud.
The Panthers haven't been good, but they have played four of their six games on the road against a considerably tougher schedule than Houston has played. Even though Houston is getting healthier along the offensive line, I'd buy Carolina at +3 or better at its floor.
Verdict: Bet Carolina (+3 or better)
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Jaguars vs. Steelers
Jacksonville is getting healthier along the offensive line, and it's no surprise that it has coincided with a recent winning streak.
There's some air in the numbers based on good bounces — Foster Moreau's end zone drop probably swung the game last Thursday in New Orleans. The Jaguars have won four straight games despite getting relatively inconsistent play from the offense as a whole. They were under four yards per play against the Colts, couldn't move the ball much on the injured Bills until midway through the fourth quarter, and they've at times ignored top receiver Calvin Ridley.
Despite this, there are a few keys I really like for Jacksonville in this spot. The Steelers cannot run the ball at all, and they're going to be entirely one-dimensional in this game. The Jaguars' defensive scheme forces teams away from the run game. The Jaguars rank second in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed and Pittsburgh is 25th in EPA per rush and rushing success rate. As a result, the ball will often be in Kenny Pickett's hands. As a Jacksonville backer, I'd like to see the Jaguars' improving secondary challenge Pickett to beat them.
The Jaguars impressively slowed down Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, holding them to 20 and 17 points, respectively. Based on Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics, the Jaguars are the No. 1-ranked coverage unit in the NFL. I'm not totally convinced of that, but the defense should still have success stopping a Steelers offense that is 31st in success rate.
Doug Pederson also isn't going to overdo running the ball. He has the most extreme pass-heavy approach on second-and-10 in the league, and that's where this Steelers defense is vulnerable. Pittsburgh's run defense remains good, but there are exploitable holes in the secondary. The Steelers are 16th in passing success rate allowed and there's a huge gulf in quarterback play.
I wouldn't lay three in Pittsburgh, but anything under that is a bet for me.
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Ravens vs. Cardinals
It's always a danger to buy a team right after they just had their best game of the season and completely dismantled another team. The Ravens won't play a better game all season than the one they did against Detroit on Sunday at home. Baltimore began the game with four consecutive touchdown drives and Detroit countered with three consecutive three-and-outs.
The building blocks of this potential outburst had been building for weeks. The defense completely stifled Pittsburgh and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks. The offense struggled to put points on the board in both games because of dropped passes, inopportune turnovers and red zone inefficiency, but the play-to-play numbers took a real step forward under the hood.
It was remarkable just how open the Ravens receivers were down the field in the game. PFF graded the Lions as a league-average coverage unit this year and they had no chance of keeping up with Baltimore's offensive weapons. The Cardinals' defense may actually be worse than the Broncos' at this point, and Jonathan Gannon's defensive scheme has consistently struggled against top-tier pocket passers.
The Cardinals are 32nd in pass coverage per PFF, 30th in dropback success rate, 29th in rushing success rate allowed. Seattle only managed 20 points against them because of some inopportune turnovers, but it's hard to see the Cardinals keeping Baltimore under 25 points in this game.
You can't really run on Baltimore, and the clock may have finally struck midnight on Joshua Dobbs' Cinderella run here. The Cardinals rank dead last in EPA per play and dropback success rate in the last three weeks. The Ravens should win this game going away as the market keeps adjusting to the fact they are the second-best team in the AFC.
Jets vs. Giants
The Giants posted back-to-back quality performances against two overvalued defenses with major holes for Tyrod Taylor to pick apart with his poised pocket play. Neither the Commanders nor Bills were able to truly rattle Taylor into mistakes, but the same will not be true this Sunday for a neutral field contest between the Jets and Giants.
As much as it feels terrible to lay points with Zach Wilson, this line should be over a field goal given the significant mismatch for the Jets in the trenches here. The Jets are a top-five coverage unit, per PFF, and a top-half unit in pass rush win rate. It's really difficult to run the ball on this defensive front, and the Jets had the extra prep and rest to get their secondary healthy through the bye week.
The Jets have played the toughest schedule of QBs in the entire NFL — Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Despite this tough schedule, the Jets are 10th in success rate and 12th in EPA per play allowed.
Daniel Jones still hasn't been cleared for contact, so I don't expect him to be back for this game. The major plus for the Giants offense has been Taylor's sack avoidance, but this offensive line is still giving up pressures at an alarming rate compared to before Jones' injury.
I'd lay up to -3 on the Jets to move to above .500 on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Jets -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Vikings vs. Packers
Minnesota just had its banner win for the entire season in primetime in front of the entire country. The Vikings' DVOA numbers for the current 3-4 team are better than the 2022 Vikings, who began the season with a 6-1 record. Compare this situation to the Packers, who have lost three in a row (two to the Broncos and Raiders) and now are beginning the search for the next QB as Jordan Love continues to falter with his accuracy and decision-making.
Everyone bought back in on their Vikings stock after selling it after an 0-4 start. The Packers began the year 2-1, then lost three straight and no one wants any part of the Packers here as a home underdog (basically a pick'em).
No one is as good or as bad as last week suggests, and the Vikings cannot exploit the Packers' biggest weakness in this game. Green Bay's run defense and scheme remain problems under defensive coordinator Joe Barry, but the Vikings' entire offense is centered around Kirk Cousins and the passing attack.
Minnesota is decent on a play-to-play basis on the ground, but there's zero explosiveness at all from the unit. The Packers' injury situation needs to be monitored here, especially in the back seven of the defense. Jaire Alexander missed last week through injury, but I'd expect him to be in for this desperation home divisional game.
This is a classic buy-low and sell-high spot. It's time to grab Green Bay at home to save its season. Use our live NFL odds page to get +1, which is still available at most sportsbooks.
Verdict: Bet Green Bay +1
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