Jets vs. Dolphins Odds & Picks: Miami Should Cover As Road Favorite On Sunday
Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Jets vs. Dolphins Odds
Miami will look to rebound from its loss to Denver as the Dolphins head north to take on the New York Jets.
Tua Tagovailoa struggled against a good Broncos defense in his third career start. In fact, he was so bad that he got benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brian Flores said after the game that Tua wasn’t injured and thought that Fitzpatrick gave them the best chance to win. Tagovailoa was even slated to start against the Jets, but a thumb injury he suffered in practice this week means Fitzpatrick will be under center.
The Dolphins trail the Bills by one game in the AFC East, so they cannot afford a loss to the 0-10 Jets on Sunday. The tank is in full effect in New York — the Jets are the lone winless team in the NFL and are showing no interest in competing, as they are 3-7 against the spread.
Sam Darnold returns from injury on Sunday, which will give the Jets a better chance to win. However, they’re better off at this point trying to get the No. 1 pick.
The reason the Dolphins are in a position to potentially make the playoffs is because of their offense. Thanks to Fitzpatrick and Tagovailoa, the Dolphins rank ninth in passing success per Sharp Football Stats.
Miami hasn’t had a consistent rushing attack due to a number of injuries to their backfield. Despite all of that, the Dolphins still rank in the top half of the NFL in rushing success and explosiveness. However, they are going to want to rely on their passing game because the Jets have surprisingly been very good against the run.
The Dolphins have an opportunistic defense, as they rank fourth in the NFL with 17 takeaways this season. Outside of that, their defense hasn’t been great, especially against the run.
The Dolphins are bottom-five in defensive rushing success and explosiveness, allowing a whopping 5.2 yards per rush, but that shouldn’t be a big issue against the Jets since they have no run game.
The Dolphins’ secondary has been the strength of their defense, allowing only 6.9 yards per pass attempt. They should be able to dominate this game, since the Jets are dead last in passing success and have no real weapons on offense.
New York Jets
To say things are bad for the Jets offensively would be an understatement.
The Jets are dead last in yards per play at 4.6, which is the exact same average they had last season. The main issue has been at quarterback. Joe Flacco has actually been better than Darnold this season, throwing for a better yards per attempt and a higher passer rating.
Darnold hasn’t played since the Jets’ Week 8 loss to the Chiefs, but in his six starts this season he’s been terrible, throwing for 5.5 yards per attempt, just three touchdowns and six interceptions. That has led to the Jets having the lowest-ranked offense in terms of passing success.
The running game hasn’t been there either, with 39-year-old Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine in the backfield. The duo has combined to only gain a measly 3.7 yards per carry.
The Jets will need their run game on Sunday, since that is the Dolphins’ weakness on defense.
The Jets defense has been terrible against the pass this season. They rank 31st in defensive passing success, 25th in explosive passing allowed and are allowing 8.0 yards per attempt. That’s all going to be a problem against Miami’s passing attack.
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Jets were able to hold the Dolphins to 5.4 yards per play, but they did allow Fitzpatrick to torch them for three touchdown passes.
The real strength of the Jets’ defense is their run defense, which ranks seventh in defensive rushing success. The Dolphins do not have much of a running game, so the Jets could potentially force them to be one-dimensional on offense.
The Jets haven’t shown any signs of being competitive, so the Dolphins should cruise to victory. I have them projected as -11.58 favorites on the road, so there’s plenty of value on them at -6.5.
PICK: Dolphins -6.5