Eagles-Giants Odds, Predictions, Picks: Back Philly as Road Favorite in Week 12 NFC East Rival Showdown
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.
- Eagles vs. Giants odds continue to rise late Sunday morning, but our analyst only sees value in betting the favorite at the right number.
- Find his predictions and spread bet for this NFC Easy Week 12 matchup below.
- Dating back to 2003, the Giants are 6-12 against the spread when they host the Eagles.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Parx. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The Eagles are soaring entering Week 12, while the Giants are grounded.
A disappointing performance against the Buccaneers on Monday night resulted in the firing of Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. Garrett’s hiring was always peculiar, given the mixed results he endured as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys for 10 years.
I don’t recall any Giants fans remotely enthused when Garrett was even considered for the job. As a result, you could say that his tenure ended rather ignominiously for all parties involved.
This was supposed to be the year New York took a step forward after spending $75.3 million in guaranteed money on free agents. However, the Giants might as well have flushed that money down the drain, given that they’re just 3-7.
While the Giants might offer some semblance of a response in regards to Garrett’s firing, I’m not sure it’ll be enough to carry them through all four quarters in Week 12 against the Eagles.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Eagles vs. Giants Injury Report
- RB Jordan Howard (knee): Out
- CB Tay Gowan (quad): Questionable
- WR Sterling Shepard (quad): Out
- TE Kaden Smith (knee): Out
- DB Nate Ebner (knee): Out
- FB Cullen Gillaspia (calf): Out
- WR Kadarius Toney (quad): Doubtful
- TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle): Doubtful
- RB Saquon Barkley (ankle): Questionable
- WR John Ross (quad): Questionable
Eagles vs. Giants Matchup
|Eagles Offense||DVOA Rank||Giants Defense|
|Eagles Defense||DVOA Rank||Giants Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Eagles Embrace QB’s Identity
The Eagles’ Pythagorean Expectation suggests they fit the profile of a team that should have a .544 winning percentage. Unfortunately, their actual winning percentage this season is .455.
The good news for Eagles fans is that this team might just be turning the corner with three wins in its last four games. Philadelphia’s offensive DVOA numbers paint a positive picture as it’s ranked seventh despite a 5-6 record.
Philadelphia is the only team in the top 10 of offensive DVOA with a winning percentage below .500. Much of that has to do with an established identity and a willingness to embrace it fully.
There’s no question that the team is built in the mold of quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has played a vital role in Philadelphia’s rise as one of the best rushing teams in the league.
Generally, when you have a team that runs the ball as well as Philadelphia does, you can also expect it to have a high situational success rate. Offensively, the Eagles are ranked ninth with a 50% success rate, per Sharp Football Stats. Philadelphia’s ability to stay ahead of the chains is a big reason why it’s ranked fourth with a third-down conversion rate of 46.10%.
The running game doesn’t just help the Eagles keep their drives alive. They’ve also become pretty lethal inside the red zone as TeamRankings has them sixth with a touchdown conversion rate of 66.67%. That alone can make the Eagles a nightmare for teams to play against, particularly if they struggle to defend against the run. That’s precisely the type of opponent the Eagles will face on Sunday when they travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants.
Giants Continue Trending Downward
It feels like each year since general manager Dave Gettleman has been in New York, the Giants can’t seem to escape yet another rebuild. Perhaps that’s what makes it such a challenge to pinpoint the identity of this football team at the moment.
While the Giants look like they have some attractive individual pieces, collectively, there’s a lot that’s left to be desired. You could spend a whole day looking through their stats and struggle to pick out anything they do exceptionally well.
New York’s defensive DVOA ratings seem a bit generous after watching them give up 30 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. That’s why I think the Garrett firing was nothing more than papering over the cracks. I’m still trying to ascertain what New York’s defensive game plan was against the Bucs after they barely laid a finger on Tom Brady.
Pro-Football-Reference’s game log shows that the Giants sent 10 blitzes against Brady and only knocked him down twice and sacked him once. The future Hall of Famer might as well have brought some reading material onto the field because he had all day to throw the football and pick the Giants apart for 307 passing yards.
Now that we’ve seen the Giants’ ability, or rather, inability to defend against the pass, they’ll have to devise a plan on how to stop the run — something they’ve struggled mightily with this season.
New York is 30th against the run in DVOA, and per rbsdm.com, it’s 27th in allowing opponents a 43.7% success rate when running the ball. The Giants will be up against an Eagles team that leads the NFL with a 49.3% success rate when running the ball. For a team like New York, that’s 29th in the time of possession (28:05) battle. The Giants defense could struggle even more if on the field for prolonged periods of the game.
NFL Pick: Eagles vs. Giants
There’s been somewhat of a revolving door to the infirmary for the Giants this season, as they’ve often struggled to come out of their games without a key player picking up an injury.
One unit that seems repeatedly hard done by injuries is the wide receiver group. Sterling Shepard has already been ruled out, and Kadarius Toney could also be slated to accompany him on the sidelines. If Toney doesn’t play, the Eagles should have a much easier time crafting a game plan to defend against perhaps the most experienced Giants wide receiver in Kenny Golladay.
As far as the divisional matchup is concerned, this is one of those series where you can almost throw out any home-field advantage. Note that the visiting team is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six head-to-head meetings.
Furthermore, dating back to 2003, New York is 6-12 ATS for a loss of 6.4 units when it hosts Philadelphia. During that span, there’s been just one occasion where the Giants covered consecutive home games against the Eagles, and they managed to cover as five-point underdogs in their last meeting.
Philadelphia opened up as a three-point favorite, but the line is now up to -3.5. Since I don’t have much interest in playing the Giants, I’d look to buy the Eagles down to -2.5 at -145 odds. That number’s available at BetMGM, but I wouldn’t play it any higher than at -3.
Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-145) | Bet to: Eagles -3 (-125)
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