Betting an NFL Parlay with Anytime Touchdown scorers is incredibly fun, even if they’re mostly a losing proposition that will drain your bankroll if you’re not careful. Most sportsbooks tend to clean up on this bet type, so how do we scratch the parlay itch without overextending ourselves?
Allow me to introduce “The 180 Challenge” — here’s how it works in case you're not familiar with the concept:
Each week, I bet on a three-leg Anytime TD parlay that equates to somewhere around +1800 or more. $10 per parlay ticket, $180 total for the season.
The goal is to win as much as possible. But the safety net is that you only need to hit one parlay all season to make your money back.
If you go 0-18 (which is unfortunate), the positive spin is it's only $180. This way, we can still participate in fun touchdown parlays while managing our bankroll and not going overboard on bad spending habits.
Here’s my NFL Anytime Touchdown Parlay for Week 12.
NFL Parlay — Week 12 Anytime TD Picks
- Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155, bet365)
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200, bet365)
- DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160, bet365)
Parlay Odds: +1828 via bet365
Jets vs. Ravens TD Pick: Mark Andrews
This year, Mark Andrews has already made a significant impact, scoring six touchdowns.
With Lamar Jackson back under center, Andrews has found the end zone in three consecutive games. This is an encouraging trend for his performance moving forward.
The upcoming matchup against the Jets is particularly favorable for Andrews. New York tends to utilize a lot of man coverage, which plays to Andrews’ strengths as a receiver.
He currently leads the team with three touchdowns against man coverage, showcasing his ability to capitalize on these defensive schemes. Additionally, his target rate has increased when facing man coverage compared to zone, indicating that he is a preferred option in these scenarios.
Considering that the Jets have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season, it feels reasonable to bet on Andrews to notch an eighth touchdown.
Vikings vs. Packers TD Pick: Justin Jefferson
Despite only having two touchdowns this season, Justin Jefferson is poised for a breakout in this upcoming matchup.
The Packers utilize zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, ranking in the top seven. Jefferson has excelled against zone coverage, demonstrating impressive efficiency in targets-per-route-run metrics.
Moreover, Jefferson leads the team with seven targets in the end zone, with four of those occurring in the last three games since J.J. McCarthy returned. This uptick in opportunities suggests that he's been given more chances to score as the chemistry between McCarthy and Jefferson continues to develop.
With another week of practice under their belts, I have full confidence in Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell to design plays that will allow Jefferson to find the end zone again.
Betting on Jefferson for an Anytime Touchdown seems like a smart move given the favorable matchup and recent trends in his targets.
Eagles vs Cowboys TD Pick: DeVonta Smith
This season, DeVonta Smith has already found the end zone three times, and he faces a particularly favorable matchup today.
The Cowboys have struggled with their pass defense, ranking among the worst in the league and playing zone coverage at the second-highest rate.
Notably, 17 of the 23 passing touchdowns allowed by the Cowboys have been to wide receivers, highlighting a strong opportunity for Smith to capitalize. He has the highest targets per route run against zone defenses among all Eagles pass-catchers, making him a prime candidate to succeed in this matchup.
We’ve seen Smith thrive against teams known for their heavy zone coverage this year, scoring against the Rams, Packers and Vikings.
With this in mind, it seems like a great opportunity to bet on Smith to secure his fourth touchdown of the year in Jerry World.
Disclaimer: 18-1 parlays have less than 5% chance of hitting, and that percentage only shrinks as you increase the parlay odds. Keep your expectations in check and bet on these for recreation.
