NFL Picks & Predictions Week 18: Bet on Spread, Total
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel.
NFL Picks & Predictions
One more Sunday before the playoffs! My NFL picks & predictions are on a spread in the early slate of games at 1 p.m. ET and then the Sunday Night Football total for what will be a crucial matchup between the Bills and Dolphins.
Click on a pick below to navigate this post. Let's get this shmoney!
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Vikings vs. Lions
The reinsertion of Nick Mullens is key here. Mullens is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt this season, and despite throwing four interceptions, he had the Vikings on the doorstep of victory against the Vikings two weeks ago. While interceptions are part of the Mullens Experience, the most likely outcome is that he throws 1-2 interceptions, not four (his interception prop is 1.5). The Vikings outgained the Lions by 1, 390-389, in that game despite running 26 fewer plays, averaging 7.6 yards per play to Detroit’s 5.1.
This is also uncharted territory for the Lions, who are headed to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, and will be the No. 3 seed unless the Cowboys and Eagles both lose, which is unlikely. So while Dan Campbell has said he will play his starters, there is always a chance he pulls them early, or that they simply come out flat knowing they will likely have nothing to gain.
Meanwhile, this is a great bounce-back spot for the Vikings coming off a 33-10 shellacking by the Packers. Per our Action Labs data, underdogs coming off a loss of 20 or more are 124-85-4 (59%) ATS since 2017, covering by 1.6 points per game.
Bet to: +3
Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Dolphins
Since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator, the Bills have been an entirely different offense. With Ken Dorsey, they were averaging 36.3 passes and 25.0 rushes per game, but with Brady, they’re averaging 33.2 passes and a whopping 37.0 rushes, slowing the pace down and emphasizing ball control.
Both of these teams are strong defensively – Buffalo is 10th in weighted DVOA and Miami is 12th, per FTN – and the offenses could be slowed by the humid (and somewhat windy) Miami weather. Per our Action Labs data, games with humidity of 77% or more and winds of 8 mph or more are 232-129-3 (62%), falling short of the closing total by 2.7 points on average.
Also per Action Labs, primetime unders are 67-41 (62%) since the start of last season, covering by 1.6 points per game.
Bet to: 48
What is QuickSlip?
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