NFL Player Props: Bet Aaron Jones In Packers-49ers

NFL Player Props: Bet Aaron Jones In Packers-49ers article feature image

Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones.

NFL Player Props | Packers vs 49ers

Saturday, Jan 20
8:15 p.m. ET
Aaron Jones Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

Battling through setbacks of hamstring and knee injuries during the season, Aaron Jones looks to have rebounded and returned to peak form just in time for the Divisional Round.

Since returning to his regular role, Jones is averaging 21 rush attempts over his last four games, seeing at least 20 carries in all four games. All games were wins, including going up 27-0 in the second quarter against the Cowboys during Wild Card Weekend. The Packers had no reason to throw the ball and put their pedal on the gas for all four quarters.

But despite his recent consistency in clearing this line in controllable and favorable game scripts, sportsbooks have set his rush attempts line at 16.5, four attempts lower, and I know it’s for a good reason.

Traveling as double-digit underdogs in San Francisco, the Packers will likely be involved in a game script that requires more from quarterback Jordan Love this time around. No teams allow fewer rush attempts (15.59) to opposing running backs than the 49ers. Only one of the last 37 running backs rushed the ball for more than 17 times – Jerome Ford (17) back in Week 6.

The reason why is because of the 49ers ability to methodically sustain slow and efficient drives in the first half that chews the game clock. According to Team Rankings, they control the ball 52.8% of time in the first half, the third-longest time of possession in the league. It’s important I use this parameter because this would likely be the time where the Packers will try to establish the run with Jones early. 

Unlike last week, I find it hard for the Packers to come out on top early and be up double digits before the halfway mark of the 1st quarter. Should that be the case and the 49ers build a lead going into the second half with sustained McCaffrey runs, it’s unlikely Aaron Jones will have enough time and opportunity to clear his rush attempts prop tonight.

Pick: Aaron Jones Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

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