NFL Player Props Week 11: Expert Bet for Zach Charbonnet, James Cook
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: James Cook (No. 4).
NFL Player Props | Week 11
Welcome to my entire collection of NFL player props for Sunday's Week 11 slate. We'll start at Lambeau Field and move our way to the late slate of afternoon games.
Kenneth Walker continues to dominate the Seahawks backfield, but Charbonnet has been playing at such a high level that it would make sense for them to get him more involved.
Charbonnet has been every bit as good as his 5.6 yards per carry would suggest. In fact, my expected yards model suggests it should be closer to 6.1.
Out of 84 qualified RBs Charbonnet ranks:
- YCo/att: 15th
- Explosive rate: 2nd
- First down rate: 1st
26% of his runs are going 10-plus yards and 45% of them result in a first down — both are off-the-charts good. His opposition, the Rams, allow two yards before contact to RBs (fifth highest in the league). When getting at least two yards before contact this season, Charbonnet is averaging 10.5 yards per carry — only Breece Hall and De’Von Achane have been better.
In order to avoid needing a specific game script, or Kenneth Walker’s usage to take a hit, I think the best way to invest in Charbonnet’s raw talent is in the longest rush market. He won’t be able to maintain a 26% explosive play rate going forward (probably), but he won’t need to in order to clear this number.
I’m projecting his median closer to 12 and a 61% chance he clears over 10.5.
We have a nice middle opportunity here to cash both props if Cook’s longest rush is 13 or 14 yards. My conservative estimate is Cook has an 11% chance for his longest rush to be 13 or 14 yards.
On the season, this would have cashed in two of 10 games (20% chance). If you were to simulate this game 10,000 times using Cook’s rush distribution on the season, it would actually be closer to 26%.
In the previous meeting against the Jets, his longest rush was 13 yards (he had two 13-yard rushes).
Cook tends to rush it 13 or 14 yards at a much higher rate than your average back. So while my conservative estimate is closer to 11% both hit, it seems like the actual chances are likely much higher.
The Chargers have dealt with a ton of injuries to their pass-catchers. Herbert lost his main deep threat, Mike Williams, to an ACL tear in Week 3 and he is without Josh Palmer indefinitely. Herbert only has two 50-plus-yard completions this season — both to Palmer.
Gerald Everett has been ruled out and both Keenan Allen (shoulder) and Jalen Guyton (groin) are both questionable. Allen is expected to play, but if he’s limited in any way (or a surprise scratch), we'll see Herbert’s passing yards prop plummet. Guyton is less important in that regard, but if he’s out, the Chargers will be very thin behind Allen.
The Chargers elevated WRs Terrell Bynum and Alex Erickson, which could be nothing, but it means they are at least preparing for the possibility that Allen and/or Guyton could be unavailable.
The Packers have allowed the sixth-lowest explosive pass rate in the league. They’ve had an easy schedule of opposing RBs, but with a run defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA, the Chargers might be able to get their run game going.
Herbert has only averaged 6.9 Y/A outdoors on the road this season, so he might not be as efficient at Lambeau Field.
I’m projecting his median closer to 247.5 yards with a 60% chance he stays under. That’s assuming both Allen/Guyton are active and 100%, so there is potentially even more value on the under.
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Chuba Hubbard has taken over as the Panthers' lead back on early downs, and even Raheem Blackshear has also been getting early down snaps — all at Sanders’ expense.
Sanders only ran twice for minus-5 yards against the Bears, so it's hard to imagine we see his workload grow this week against a very good Cowboys defense that will likely see the Panthers play from behind.
I’m projecting Sanders' median closer to 15.5, but this is a range where even a handful of yards of value is massive and I have him staying under 19.5 around 62% of the time.
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Hubbard has taken over as the Panthers' lead back on early downs and while he also took the most third-down snaps last week, Sanders and Blackshear mixed in on nearly half of those. Sanders actually saw a couple more snaps than Hubbard in the 2-minute offense That resulted in Hubbard tying a season low routes run rate of 30%.
Hubbard has only cleared this number twice this season, and his recent usage doesn’t suggest that trend will change anytime soon.
It’s also a tougher matchup against Dallas, which uses man coverage at the third-highest rate and prevents running backs from getting too many receptions. The Cowboys have only allowed five running backs to catch three or more passes this season, and Hubbard doesn’t profile as an RB who is likely join that group.
I’m projecting Hubbard for closer to 2.3 receptions with a 59% chance to stay under 2.5. The fact we are getting +114 is a nice bonus.
DTR was a disaster in his Week 4 start, throwing for just 121 yards and three interceptions. I expect him to be much better this week with a full week of prep knowing he will be the team’s starter. I also think it’ll be a positive game script with Browns -1.5 seeming like the sharp play.
The Browns will likely lean on the run (and their defense) and have a very conservative game plan for Thompson-Robinson when he does drop back to pass. He also has massive rushing upside (I like his over 18.5 rush yards but prefer to attack this market due to my next reason).
I think there is some massive sneaky value here because this game can go one of two ways:
- The Browns play with the lead for most of the game, preventing Thompson-Robinson from getting into a more pass-heavy, aggressive game script.
- The Browns get down big early, possibly due to DTR struggling and/or turning the ball over. That game script would be less than ideal for this prop. However, it could also make it more likely that Thompson-Robinson gets benched and replaced by P.J. Walker. This gives us some added insurance on the worst possible game script.
I’m projecting his median closer to 158.5 with a 62% chance of staying under.
Jaylen Warren, who is apparently Pittsburgh's starting running back now, has finally managed to eat into Harris' early down workload — the two backs shared early down work evenly last week.
I figured Warren could leapfrog Harris at some point this season, which is why he was one of my most highly rostered RBs in fantasy.
It’s going to be tough for Harris to clear this prop with less early down snaps, not to mention they are facing a Browns defense that is first in DVOA against the run.
I’m projecting Harris' median closer to 10.5 with a 63% chance he stays under 13.5.
Barkley is one of the few running backs who warrant an 18-plus number in the rushing attempts market — but only in the right matchup. With Tommy DeVito under center and the Giants nearly double-digit road dogs, this number is a bit too high.
In Week 8, Barkley racked up 36 carries because Tyrod Taylor was injured mid-game, forcing the Giants to turn to an extreme run-heavy approach as a way of preventing DeVito from dropping back too much.
In Weeks 9 and 10, the Giants had the 16th-highest (league average) early down pass rate in neutral situations. They apparently felt comfortable enough to at least call plays as if DeVito is a functioning QB. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to generate enough offense for Barkley to get more than 16 carries in either game.
The Giants are likely already looking ahead to 2024 and don’t have much incentive to win. In fact, they probably wouldn’t mind landing a top-two pick in the NFL Draft.
Barkley was dealing with an ankle injury this week, so there’s a chance New York limits his workload a bit.
I’m projecting him closer to 16.5 rush attempts and a 64% chance he stays under 18.5.
This one is similar to the James Cook bet that you'll find below. I have it as about a 17% chance that both of these bets hit.
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