We have you covered with a total of nine NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 4.
Our staff has locked in props for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Browns vs. Lions and Chargers vs. Giants, among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have a pick for the marquee game of the day between the Chiefs and Ravens at 4:25 p.m. ET. We also have bets for Colts vs. Rams, as well as a pick for Packers vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season on September 28.
NFL Player Props Week 4
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Panthers vs. Patriots
Tetairoa McMillan Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
Tetairoa McMillan is already on the board with a few highlight reel type of plays, and last week, we saw him soar through the air to make an incredible catch, quickly earning the trust of his quarterback and offensive coordinator.
McMillan is already a top-25 talent at the wide receiver position in my opinion, and this week sets up as a great chance for a big breakout game.
The Panthers will likely be without Ja'Tavion Sanders and Xavier Legette, so those vacated targets could easily go to McMillan.
Additionally, the Patriots have been one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the NFL this season, as they have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per carry while ranking in the bottom-4 against the pass.
Pick: Tetairoa McMillan Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Browns vs. Lions
David Montgomery Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Brit Devine
When it comes to stopping the run, no one is doing it like the Browns. They have allowed a league-low 172 rushing yards, allowed a league-low 2.29 YPC, allowed a league-low 0.11 yards before contact on run plays, have yet to allow an RB carry for 10+ yards on a single play…
I could go on, but you get the point.
David Montgomery has 34 carries to Jahmyr Gibbs' 43 so far this season for the Lions, and Montgomery appears to be slightly less involved with Ben Johnson out of town.
If this game does get out of hand, I would expect to see some Craig Reynolds in the fourth quarter as well, keeping touches away from Montgomery.
The Lions would be smart to air it out in this one instead of banging their heads against the toughest run defense in recent NFL history to start a season. I would play this down to 44.5.
Pick: David Montgomery Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Commanders vs. Falcons
Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Jordan Vanek
The Commanders have struggled to defend passes down the field this season, and that sets up well for Darnell Mooney.
Since returning from injury, he has led the team in air-yard share and has emerged the vertical threat.
On top of that, Mooney has been schemed as the first-read target more often than Drake London since coming back.
Coming off an 11-target game against the Panthers last week, I expect Mooney to clear 42.5 yards receiving in this spot.
Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Chargers vs. Giants
Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
By Brit Devine
The Giants are done with the Russell Wilson experiment after three games and are now putting rookie Jaxson Dart in at quarterback.
This should immediately breathe life into the Giants' offense, as Dart was spectacular in the preseason and is going to make the Titans look silly for taking Cam Ward at No. 1 in the same draft.
I would expect these odds to settle around +150 by Sunday, and if Malik Nabers does get into he end zone this week, this might be the last time all season we see a number as high as +170 on him to score a touchdown.
It's hard to overstate the expected improvement in quarterback play I am excepting from Dart compared to Wilson right off the bat.
Pick: Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
Saints vs. Bills
James Cook Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
By Brit Devine
Despite having to pay some juice, these odds are still too low on James Cook to score a touchdown against the Saints this week.
Cook tends to thrive in big wins by Buffalo, as the Bills like to take some of the load off of Josh Allen whenever they can.
Cook has already scored a touchdown in every game this season after a year in which he scored in 14 of 19 games.
Cook scored in every double-digit win for the Bills last season. The Saints have allowed the opposing team's RB1 to score in every game so far this season.
Pick: James Cook Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
Bears vs. Raiders
Caleb Williams Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
Caleb Williams has flashed some nice upside utilizing his legs, going over this number twice already this year through three weeks and in eight of his last 11 games overall dating back to last season.
The Raiders have faced three mobile quarterbacks already, and while they managed to hold Drake Maye in check in Week 1 (11 rushing yards), they allowed 31 rushing yards to Justin Herbert in Week 2, and 40 rushing yards to Marcus Mariota last week.
Williams has at least five rushing attempts in all three games this season, and with this spread at just -1.5 and a high total of 47.5, we should see plenty of offense here with Williams as the center piece for this resurgent Bears' offense.
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Ravens vs. Chiefs
Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
By Brit Devine
We lost on Lamar Jackson's rushing prop last week, but with a lower line than the week before, the books have blessed us with an opportunity to win that bet back and then some.
Lamar has played six career games against Kansas City. He has recorded at least 46 rushing yards in all of them (with 83+ yards in three games and 100+ in two games).
I always want to target Lamar's rushing prop in big games, as the Ravens will likely be pushed to pass for the entirety of the game (which leads to more scrambles).
The Ravens are going to need everything Lamar can offer in this one, as Derrick Henry has started to look human over his past two games.
The Chiefs allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last season, including a huge game to Lamar in last year's season-opener, and they already let Justin Herbert go for 32 rushing yards in this year's opener.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Colts vs. Rams
Daniel Jones Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
By Jordan Vanek
Daniel Jones has thrown for at least 228 yards in every game this season, yet he enters this week as a 3.5-point road underdog with a passing line set at just 214.5.
That number feels far too low.
Just this past weekend, we watched the Eagles rack up 209 passing yards in the second half alone against the Rams, even when Los Angeles knew the pass was coming.
The absence of Alec Pierce isn’t a major blow to the deep passing game, as Adonai Mitchell should still provide the explosive play-making ability needed to push Jones comfortably over this line.
Pick: Daniel Jones Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Packers vs. Cowboys
Matthew Golden Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
We hit on this exact prop last week, and I'm going right back to the well here in a much better matchup against an awful Cowboys' defense.
While trying to predict Green Bay receivers can be frustrating, there are a few things we definitely know.
With Jayden Reed out of the lineup, Matthew Golden saw his role grow last week with an 84% route participation and 16% target share.
Golden's speed and separation are also undeniable, putting him in great spots to pop a big play against this secondary.
Dallas has a long trend of being gashed by wide receivers, allowing the 6th-most receiving yards to the position in 2024, and they have been the worst team in the league this season, allowing an average of 220 receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position alone.
They've also been very vulnerable to big plays, allowing long receptions to Luther Burden (65), Rome Odunze (35), Darius Slayton (52), Wan'Dale Robinson (50) and Malik Nabers (48) over the past two weeks.
Golden's separation metrics are off the chart this season, and I can see Jordan Love being aggressive against this defense and taking some deep shots here with the ultra speedy Golden.
Golden has the upside to cover this in just one catch, and with his role growing weekly and a juicy spot with the Cowboys, I'm going to bet this number now before it starts to trend upward.
