NFL Playoff Picks: Ravens, Dolphins Among Least Popular Bets in Last 20 Years
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Skylar Thompson.
Tyler Huntley. Skylar Thompson.
As of Sunday morning at 10 A.M. ET, here are the current betting percentages on Action Labs for both of these Sunday games:
- Dolphins (+13.5) at Bills
Miami: 19% tickets
Bills: 81% tickets
- Ravens (+8.5) at Bengals
Baltimore: 27% tickets
Cincinnati: 73% tickets
Bet Miami vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
Over the last 20 years in our Bet Labs database, only 10 teams have closed with 30% of tickets or fewer in the playoffs. Those teams are 3-7 straight-up (SU) and 3-7 against the spread (ATS) and over the last five years, they are 0-3 SU and ATS — not the best results for “fade the public” crew.
Here are those 10 games:
Of those 10 teams to close with 30% of tickets or fewer, only one closed as an underdog of more than three points:
Houston closed with exactly 30% of tickets and ended up losing to Tom Brady and the Pats, 34-16 behind Brock Osweiler, who was in his first season in Houston.
Bet Baltimore vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel
This week, Buffalo and Cincinnati being such big favorites and getting such a high betting percentage creates a very unique situation.
On the flip side, the Bills and Bengals could become the seven and seventh teams since 2003 to be favored by seven points or more and have a ticket percentage of 66% or higher (two-thirds).
Of the previous five examples, four won straight-up. The one loss was back in the 2005 playoffs, when Drew Brees’ Chargers trailed Chad Pennington and the Jets 17-7 in San Diego heading to the fourth quarter. San Diego tied the game on a last second touchdown from Brees to Antonio Gates, but New York ended up winning in overtime.