NFL Power Ratings: Jacksonville Jaguars Most Overrated Week 7 Team

Oct 16, 2018 3:06 PM EDT
  • Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams public bettors are overrating and underrating in Week 7.
  • Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.

The top of The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings remain unchanged after Week 6. The Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs are in a tier by themselves.

The Rams, Patriots and Chiefs are the only teams with a rating of 5 or more points. LA and New England are tied for the highest rating at 6.2 – meaning they would be favored by 6.2 points against an average team on a neutral field.

While the top of the ratings remains static, the rest of the rankings are in flux.

One of the biggest winners last week were the Los Angeles Chargers who have gone from No. 11 to No. 7 after soundly defeating the Cleveland Browns. The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the biggest losers after Week 7, falling from No. 5 to No. 14 following a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Has the betting market adjusted for the changes in each team’s power rating?

By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Ratings to the consensus spread number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating.

Overrated Week 7 Teams

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

  • NFL Power Rating spread: -3.6
  • Current Spread: -5
  • Time: Oct. 21, 1 p.m. ET

Following a Week 2 win over the Patriots, the Jaguars had a power rating of 3.1 – tied for third best in the league. Three losses in the last four weeks have dropped this number to 1.0.

A big reason for the decrease has been quarterback play. In the Jaguars’ last four games, Blake Bortles ranked 30th in QBR and has thrown six interceptions — tied for the most in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills

  • NFL Power Rating spread: -6.6
  • Current Spread: -7.5
  • Time: Oct. 21, 1 p.m. ET

Buffalo is the second-worst team in the NFL, ranking 31st in our power rankings, but Indy isn’t much better coming in at No. 23. Should the Colts really be favored by 7.5 points? Our power ratings say no.

Perhaps the market is overreacting to Nathan “Pick 6” Peterman likely starting in place of rookie Josh Allen. According to our NFL simulation model, there is no difference between the quarterbacks.

The line opened Colts -9.5 at multiple books. There is still value taking the Bills — according to the power ratings — despite the line movement.

Underrated Week 7 Teams

Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos

  • NFL Power Rating spread: +1.3
  • Current Spread: +2.5
  • Time: Oct. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET

A backdoor cover by the Broncos has bettors excited to lay the points with Denver on Thursday night. Nearly 70% of spread tickets (see live odds) are on Case Keenum & Co., helping move the line from Denver -1 to -2.5 at CRIS.

However, no bet signals — signs of professional action — were triggered, which means sharp money has not been responsible for the change.

Don’t forget, Arizona hung with Minnesota last week before ultimately losing by 10 points, but covering the spread. It is also worth noting that the Cardinals offense has improved since Josh Rosen took over.

With the rookie quarterback starting, Arizona is averaging 250 yards per game, up from 190 yards when Sam Bradford was under center.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers

  • NFL Power Rating spread: -5.4
  • Current Spread: -4.5
  • Time: Oct. 21, 1 p.m. ET

Carson Wentz has now posted better numbers in four games this season than in the first four he played in 2017 when he was considered an MVP favorite.

He is completing 68.4% of his passes (60.5% in 2017), is averaging 298 passing yards (264.5 in 2017) and has an 8-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-to-2 in 2017).

Wentz looks back to form, but the betting market hasn’t adjusted properly.

Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles

Follow John Ewing on Twitter
@johnewing

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56.5
-7
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63
-3