I'm targeting three NFL picks on Sunday of Week 12, including predictions for Patriots vs Bengals, Jaguars vs Cardinals, and Saints vs Falcons.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 12th Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 12 Predictions & Spread Picks
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Patriots vs Bengals
Tinsley is underpriced up against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fifth-most TDs per game to WRs (1.27).
While Mike Gesicki is back, and likely to fill some of the void left by Ja'Marr Chase (suspension), Tinsley is still the best bet to operate as the clear WR3.
Tinsley has run 46 routes run and recorded six targets on the season.
Charlie Jones and Jermaine Burton have combined for three routes and no targets.
Pick: Mitchell Tinsley Anytime TD (+600)
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Cardinals vs Jaguars
The Jaguars are in a prime letdown spot on the road coming off a dominant 35-6 home win against the Chargers.
The Jags are 4-1 with a +47 point differential in Jacksonville this season.
Outside of Jacksonville, the Jags are 2-3 with a minus-35 point differential.
They blew fourth -quarter leads against Jake Browning and Davis Mills on the road, and needed overtime to beat Geno Smith and the lowly Raiders.
In terms of Expected Points Added Per Play/Completion Percentage Over Expected Composite, Jacoby Brissett sits 15th of 38 qualified quarterbacks – well ahead of not only Browning (31st), Smith (33rd), and Mills (35th), but also ahead of Kyler Murray (21st) and Trevor Lawrence (32nd).
In a battle of two middling teams, backing Arizona gives you the better QB at home.
Pick: Cardinals +2.5
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Saints vs Falcons
Despite having missed a game, Drake London (knee) is responsible for a whopping 36.3% of Falcons receiving yardage and 6-of-9 receiving touchdowns.
London is out today.
The rest of the Falcons wide receivers are averaging 0.71 yards per route on 627 routes, with a 42.2% catch rate and
zero touchdowns on 82 targets.
Kirk Cousins is up to 52 pass attempts, and he’s averaging 7.8 yards per completion and 4.8 YPA.
The Saints rank 24th in DVOA against the pass but 10th against the run.
Pick: Saints -2
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