Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 9 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 9 Picks & Predictions
Broncos vs Texans Over/Under Pick
This total opened at 38.5 and has since risen to as high as 40.5.
This number feels like an overreaction after the Broncos put up 44 points and the Texans put up 26. Nice offensive outbursts for sure, but they also came against two bad defenses (Cowboys, 49ers). Denver averaged 23.3 PPG entering Sunday; Houston is at 18.2 PPG outside of its 44-point performance against Baltimore.
You don't need me to tell you the Broncos and Texans have great defensive units, and that they get to face below-average offenses.
Last year, the Broncos averaged just 15.5 PPG against top-12 defenses; they haven't faced a top-15 defense yet this year.
Houston and Denver have each been involved in four games this season that finished with totals below 40; six games combined at 32 or below. Houston is 5-2 to the under this season and Denver is 5-3.
Pick: Under 40.5 (BetMGM)
Seahawks vs Commanders Spread Prediction
The Seahawks spread was my lookahead pick at -2.5; I'm still into it at -3.
The Commanders are in the bottom half of my power rankings while the Seahawks are comfortably top five. Seattle boasts a top-three rush defense that is more than capable of stuffing Washington's run-first attack.
Washington has a bottom-10 pass defense that has to deal with the deadly combo of Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Commanders don't even have a special teams advantage as the Seahawks are the one team better than them in that department.
Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel return for Monday Night Football against the Chiefs, which is nice, but we'll have to see if they can stay on the field and make it to this SNF game healthy.
Jayden Daniels' status is the wild card here. He either returns and this spread drops below -3 again (and he plays at something around 70% health) or he misses another game and we get Marcus Mariota in relief again and big closing line value.
Pick: Seahawks -3
