NFL Week 8 kicks off with Vikings vs Chargers on Thursday Night Football.
The Vikings enter TNF fresh off a tight loss to the Eagles. The Chargers, meanwhile, are looking to get right after losing to the Colts — Los Angeles has dropped three of its last four games after a 3-0 start to the season.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Vikings vs Chargers preview, which includes six picks for TNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Jordan Mason in the prop market as I suspect the the Vikings' running back has a favorable matchup against a suspect Chargers rush defense. Find my over/under prop bet for Mason below — plus an additional pick on one team total.
NFL Prop Bet: Jordan Mason Over/Under Prediction
Vikings running back Jordan Mason is in a great spot to potentially run all over the Chargers — specifically on outside runs.
This isn’t anything new, it's the same angle our Sean Koerner used a lot last year — the Chargers have been even worse this year on outside runs.
The Vikings use outside runs at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, especially with Mason as 81% of his runs go either right or left.
The Chargers allow just over six yards per carry on runs to the left and on runs to the right, when looking at runs at least 14 yards away from the end zone and removing QB scrambles.
At 13 projected carries with 90% coming at least 14 yards away and 80% to the outside, that’d be around 9-9.5 carries where the opposing defense allows six YPC! That’s almost 60 yards right there on average.
Add in middle runs and inside 14-yard-line runs and 70 is quite attainable for Mason. The Chargers also have the third-highest explosive run rate allowed.
Even if Aaron Jones returns from injury and eats into the workload, Mason is still a threat to bust one against a run defense that can be torched.
I'm also in line with Sean Koerner on the Vikings covering the spread — in the event of that, it would be a more run-heavy game script for the Vikings.
In addition to the Mason pick, I also like the Vikings' team total over 20.5.
In four games with Carson Wentz and Christian Darrisaw in the lineup, the Vikings' schedule-adjusted expected score is right about 25.5 pts per game.
The Chargers have around a league-average defense. Even accounting for home-field advantage, I have Minnesota well above 20.5 (closer to 24).
With Aaron Jones expected play, it's the first game with a full complement of weapons on offense for the Vikings.
