NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rams-Seahawks, Two Other Week 5 Games
credit USA Today Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (4:25 p.m. ET). The game is listed at Los Angeles -7.5 with an over/under of 50.
- Sharps are also getting down on Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos-New York Jets (both at 1 p.m. ET).
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force oddsmakers to move the lines.
Wiseguys went 3-0 in Week 4. Here are the three games they’re getting down on this Sunday.
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
- Sharp angle: Lions (+1)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Public bettors put huge emphasis on win-loss records. They also love favorites, especially when they’re on short spreads. Green Bay is 2-1-1 and only laying one-point against 1-3 Detroit. Packers all day, right?
Not so fast.
Despite receiving big public support (64% of spread bets as of Saturday afternoon), Green Bay has remained frozen at -1 or even fallen to a pick ’em. This indicates sharp reverse line movement and wiseguy liability on Detroit.
Pros at GTBets, CRIS, ABC and BetUs all got down hard on Detroit at +2 or +1, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves. Detroit also enjoys a profitable bets vs dollars discrepancy — the Lions are only getting 36% of the bets, but 54% of the dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
- Sharp angle: Jets (+1)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Denver is 2-2 but hung tough against Kansas City last week. Meanwhile, New York is 1-3 and just got thumped by Jacksonville 31-12.
The oddsmakers opened this game at Jets -2.5. Public bettors couldn’t believe it– the Broncos are underdogs against the lowly Jets? Give me the points all day!
But wiseguys know if it looks too good to be true, it is. Pros sat back and allowed heavy Denver betting (67% of spread bets) to move the line, giving them a better number on the Jets at home (-2.5 to +1).
Pros at Pinnacle and YouWager hammered the Jets at a pick ’em, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. The Pinnacle move is particularly important — it’s the sharpest offshore book with the highest limits and already up +9.7 units this season. We haven’t seen any conflicting plays on Denver.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
- Sharp angle: Seahawks (+7.5)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
The public loves the Rams. Honestly, who can blame them? They are 4-0 straight up, 3-0-1 against the spread and average 35 points per game on offense while allowing 16.75 points on defense.
This game opened at Rams -7. Heavy public betting on LA forced oddsmakers to adjust the spread to Rams -7.5. That’s when wiseguys pounced on the Seahawks at an inflated +7.5. Sharps needed to get the hook.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked 11 different steam and reverse line moves on Seattle. Pros at BetOnline, 5Dimes, GTBets, Pinnacle, CRIS, SIA, JustBet, YouWager, Heritage and ABC all got down hard on SEA at either +7 or +7.5. This signals rare, heavy market consensus.
Seattle is only getting 26% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the day, making the Seahawks the top Fade The Public play. The Seahawks also match the profitable Bet Labs system NFL Fade Teams on a Roll (65.2% ATS, +35.59 units, 25.1% return on investment since 2005).