NFL Picks Week 1: Late-Slate Best Bets for Raiders vs Broncos, Packers vs Bears, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love (left) and Russell Wilson.
Welcome to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. We’re here to help fill your betting cards with the help of our experts' NFL picks.
We have you covered for the late slate with two spread picks, a total and a player prop for Russell Wilson in the Raiders vs. Broncos game.
Keep scrolling down for our NFL Week 1 picks for the 4:25 p.m. ET window of games.
NFL Week 1 Picks for Sunday Late Slate
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Eagles vs. Patriots
By Simon Hunter
This line has been jumping since it appeared on the board in May. It opened at Eagles -3.5, jumped to -5.5 in late July and then moved back to -3.5.
Every pro I’ve spoken to loves this spot for the Patriots. It’s not shocking that they let this number get so high before coming back to it heavily.
I still love it, though. This shouldn’t be more than Eagles -3. Everybody loves Jalen Hurts and this Philly team, which was the No. 1 seed in the NFC last season and didn’t lose until Week 10. The hype around the Eagles entering this season is Super Bowl or bust.
We have the Patriots on the other side of the ball, coming off another down season in 2022. New England is +800 to win the AFC East, their lowest odds heading into a season since the 1990s.
I’m looking to buy low on the Patriots this season. Everything I’ve heard coming out of training camp is how great the offense has looked under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. Factor in Bill Belichick having an entire offseason to prep for this Eagles offense, and how could you not love the Pats as a Week 1 home ‘dog?
I can see the Eagles’ young defense struggling while the Patriots defense slows down Hurts.
I’d bet New England down to +3.
Pick: Patriots +4
Eagles vs. Patriots
Right off the bat when I saw this total hovering in the mid-40s, I thought about all the time Belichick would have to prepare for the Eagles’ offense.
Belichick is the greatest defensive mind in the history of the NFL and has made good use of extra time throughout the course of his career. This is the same legendary tactician that flummoxed the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXV, the “Greatest Show on Turf” in Super Bowl XXXVI and Peyton Manning on countless occasions throughout his career.
And now Belichick has his best starting 11 on defense since Brady left in 2020. Last season, New England finished with the best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA weighted rankings. This offseason they added Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez to their secondary. Reports out of New England are that Gonzalez is set to start and is ready to be a difference-maker from the first snap.
Situationally, I also love this play. The Patriots have been a home underdog on eight occasions since the GOAT headed off for greener pastures. The under has paid out in six of those eight contests. When facing a superior opponent, Belichick likes to pair a ball-control offense with an expertly designed defensive game plan. The Eagles, while viewed by the public as a dominant offense in the NFC, were actually a great ‘under’ team down the stretch last season, cashing five-of-seven at the window to close out their ‘22-’23 campaign.
The Eagles’ defense was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks last season. They surrendered the third-lowest opposing passer QBR while amassing 70 sacks, the third-highest regular season total in NFL history. But their run defense was mediocre at best. They allowed 4.7 yards per carry (24th) and even though they were often playing with a lead, they still gave up 121 yards per game on the ground (16th). The Pats have the potential to field a top-10 offensive line if left guard Cole Strange can continue to improve in his second year and Riley Reiff stays healthy.
Knowing that this unit is healthy in game one, I believe they’ll be able to move the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott now that they have a capable play caller in Bill O’Brien.
Toss in the weather forecast of scattered thunderstorms and wind in the 10 mph range and I like this under even more, which is why it’s my top play of Week 1.
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Packers vs. Bears
Are we sure the Packers are worse than the Bears?
The market seems to be pricing in a huge leap year for Justin Fields and there's certainly been a lot of offseason helium for him, but I'm not quite seeing it for the Bears quarterback. He adds a ton of rushing value, but his passing numbers remain a major concern overall. Green Bay is better defensively — defensive coordinator Joe Barry concerns aside — the talent gap is quite massive.
The Bears are still a year away from competing in the middle of their rebuild. Green Bay has the better offensive line and a much more reliable running game to help out their young quarterback.
This game is primed for the Week 1 overreaction of the year for whoever wins this game — but Green Bay should be lined as a tossup at worst.
Raiders vs. Broncos
The hate on Russell Wilson is at an all tine high right now and after last season I don't blame most people. However, this line is a clear overreaction.
Wilson may not have been great last season but with Sean Payton, it can only mean big things for him. Payton is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, and his offenses allowed Drew Brees to rack up the yards year after year, putting up historic numbers in his time with Brees.
In Week 1, Wilson gets a matchup vs. the Raiders, who had the worst pass defense in the league last season. Wilson actually played well against Las Vegas last season, hitting the over easily at this number in both matchups.
Given the drastic improvement at coaching here and the plus matchup, this line should be closer to 250. Even with the horrible season last year and a horrible coach, Wilson still averaged 230 yards per game. I get this his WR corp isn't in great shape right now, but I expect Payton to make a statement game here and try and get Wilsons confidence back.
Add in that this is being played in Denver and the Raiders likely aren't fully conditioned here and this could be a smash spot.
I would take this line all the way to 230.5.