NFL Week 10 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 10 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

At the official halfway mark of the NFL season, the betting kings are clearly the Giants. At 6-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), they lead the way in profitability in both categories.

Let's look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 10 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Nov. 12, 6 p.m. ET.

1. Largest at Lambeau

Aaron Rodgers has started 121 home games at Lambeau Field in his NFL career, including this week against the Cowboys. This is the first time he will close above a field goal underdog.

Even with Rodgers' 1-2 ATS start at home this year, his 20-11 ATS mark at home since 2019 is the best in the NFL.

Aaron Rodgers Biggest Home Underdog Spreads of Career

  • +4.5 – 2022 vs. DAL
  • +3 – 2016 vs. SEA (W, 38-10)
  • +3 – 2013 vs. SF (L, 23-20)
  • +3 – 2009 vs. DAL (W, 17-7)
  • +3 – 2008 vs. DAL (L, 27-16)

2. Welcome To The Saturday Era!

Frank Reich out, Jeff Saturday in.

The Colts' biggest struggles this season have been in the first half. Indianapolis is 0-9 against the first half spread this season and have lost 11 straight games against the first half spread dating back to last year.

Only one other team has started 0-9 against the first half spread since 2005 — the 2007 49ers.

3. Will The Domination Continue?

Rams head coach Sean McVay is 11-1 straight up and 10-1-1 ATS in his career against the Cardinals — his most profitable opponent ATS in his coaching career.

The Rams have covered the spread by 10.2 PPG in those 12 games.

Every NFL Game For Week 10 

Click on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.

Click on a topic to skip ahead
Market Movers
Biggest Week 10 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 10
The Big Picture
How to Bet the 2H Spread
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 10
What's Next?
Early Week 11 Betting Trends

Game-By-Game Breakdown

Falcons at Panthers 
Channel: Amazon | 8:15 p.m. ET (THU)
Line: ATL (-2.5) | O/U: 41.5
Marcus Mariota, ATL
6-3 ATS
4-5 SU
32-38-2 ATS
34-38 SU
4-5 ATS
4-5 SU
P.J. Walker, CAR
2-2 ATS
1-3 SU
4-2 ATS
3-3 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU

Can Mariota Cover?

+ Marcus Mariota has played three road games on TNF: 0-3 SU/ATS (all with Titans)

+ Mariota on short rest: 4-7 ATS (1-5 ATS on the road; 0-5 ATS on the road in the regular season)

+ Falcons have only played in primetime once since start of last season: 25-0 loss vs. Patriots, +7 last season

Win Total Over is Close

+ The Falcons are one win away from going over their win total (4.5).

Recent Skid…

+ How 6-0 ATS teams in the last decade perform after a hot start …

2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 0-3 ATS

2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS

2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS

Thursday Night Football Unders…

+ 22-14 since 2020 (5-3 this season)

+ The under is now 16-6 in the last 22 games on Thursday Night Football.

On The Rise. The total has risen from 40.5 to 43/43.5. Since the start of last season, three TNF games have risen by two points or more, all three games went over.

Have To Turn It Around…

+ Panthers have lost three straight home primetime games SU since the start of 2018.

+ Panthers are 1-30 SU and 6-25 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020.

+ Since Oct. 1, 2021, Panthers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games.

+ Panthers' last 16 games with backup QB since 2019: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS

The Good and The Bad…

+ The Panthers play on Thursday Night Football after allowing 42 points to the Bengals in Week 9. Teams who allowed 40-plus points in their previous game are just 2-13 SU and 3-15 ATS in the last 20 years.

When they allow 35 pts or more: 16-32 SU, 15-32-1 ATS

+ Panthers, Colts (Week 9) and Steelers (Week 8) lost by 20-plus points. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20-plus points are 67-49 ATS in their next game, including 52-30 ATS when listed as an underdog.

Seahawks vs. Buccaneers 
Channel: NFL Network | 9:30 a.m. ET
Line: TB (-2.5) | O/U: 44.5
Geno Smith, SEA
2022CareerInternational (Career)
6-3 ATS
6-3 SU
25-16-2 ATS
19-24 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
Tom Brady, TB
2022CareerInternational (Career)
2-6-1 ATS
4-5 SU
211-150-11 ATS
276-90 SU
3-0 ATS
3-0 SU

+ Both the Seahawks and Buccaneers have a bye week after their trip to Germany.

+ Pete Carroll's second game overseas (27-3 win over Raiders as a three-point favorite in 2018)

+ For the best comparison, Carroll is 25-15-3 ATS playing in the EST with the Seahawks.

+ The Seahawks and Jets went over their win totals in Week 9. They join the 2017 Jets (Week 9) and 2013 Chiefs (Week 8) as the only four teams to go over their win total by Week 9 or earlier in the last decade.

+ Kenneth Walker is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +100, he opened the year at 25-1 odds.

+ Seahawks are 35-1 to win the Super Bowl, they were 500-1 entering Week 6 and 100-1 entering Week 8.

+ Seahawks head to Germany after playing on the road in Arizona (MST). Just the third time one of the teams is traveling from MST or PST to Europe.

  • 2022 Seahawks (+1.5) vs. TB
  • 2022 Broncos (+1) vs. JAX (W, 21-17)
  • 2010 Broncos (+2) vs. SF (L, 24-16)

+ Tom Brady is 0-4 ATS in his career vs. Geno Smith. His 2nd-most ATS losses without a win, behind just his 0-5 ATS mark vs. Eli Manning.

International Trends…

+ Favorites of over a FG overseas are 16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS.

+ In 35 international games, favorites are 27-9-1 SU, 23-14 ATS.

+ Tom Brady’s fourth game overseas: 3-0 SU/ATS. Covering by 20.3 PPG, winning by a combined score of 113-22.

+ Brady will start an NFL game at 9:30 a.m. ET, which is his first game earlier than 1 p.m. ET in his career.

+ Brady has faced Pete Carroll three times: 1-2 SU/ATS (first time since 2016)

+ Bucs need to finish the season 8-0 to go over their preseason win total of 11.

+ Brady/Bucs have lost two straight games SU/ATS away from home. Brady hasn’t lost three straight games SU/ATS away from home since 2015-16.

» Return to the table of contents «

Jaguars at Chiefs 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: KC (-9.5) | O/U: 51
Trevor Lawrence, JAC
2022CareerRoad (Career)
3-6 ATS
3-6 SU
8-18 ATS
6-20 SU
3-9 ATS
1-11 SU
Patrick Mahomes, KC
2022CareerHome (Career)
3-5 ATS
6-2 SU
44-36-2 ATS
64-18 SU
20-22-1 ATS
34-9 SU

+ Jaguars are 2-20 SU when allowing 14 points or more under Trevor Lawrence (beat Raiders last week, 27-20).

+ The Jaguars are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games.

+ Jaguars hit the road after playing three straight home games. Teams' first game on the road after at least three straight home games are 26-35-3 ATS (42.6%) since 2017.

+ Lawrence is 6-20 SU, 8-18 ATS in his career (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS on road).

+ Jaguars are actually 2-2 ATS after a SU win with Lawrence.

Travis Etienne last 5 games:

  • Week 9: 126 yards, 2 TDs
  • Week 8: 162 yards, 1 TD
  • Week 7: 119 yards, 1 TD
  • Week 6: 108 yards
  • Week 5: 114 yards

+ Chiefs play at Arrowhead in back-to-back games. Mahomes is just 7-11 ATS in the second game of a homestand in his career, including 5-9 ATS in this spot when favored by more than a FG.

+ Mahomes' career ATS:

  • As favorite of 3.5 or more: 27-31-1 ATS
  • As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-5-1 ATS

+ Mahomes is just 6-8 ATS when listed as a TD or greater favorite in consecutive games.

+ Mahomes (+225) is now the favorite to win MVP ahead of Josh Allen (+250).

+ Under is 51-37-1 (58%) at Arrowhead with Andy Reid.

When the Chiefs are seven-point favorites or higher, under is 28-13-1 (68.3%).

+ If the Jaguars/Chiefs total closes at 50 or above: This season, the under is 10-5 in the 15 games with a total of 50 or more (44-34 since start of last season).

Texans at Giants 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NYG (-5) | O/U: 41
Davis Mills, HOU
2022CareerRoad (Career)
5-3 ATS
1-6-1 SU
10-9 ATS
3-15-1 SU
4-5 ATS
2-7 SU
Daniel Jones, NYG
2022CareerHome (Career)
6-2 ATS
6-2 SU
25-20 ATS
18-27 SU
10-13 ATS
10-13 SU

+ Giants (6-2) face off against the Texans (1-6-1). Beware of the record advantages. Teams with 75%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less: 46.8% ATS in the last 20 yrs.

In October or later? 45.1% ATS, 88-107-4 ATS

+ Texans were 14-point underdogs vs. the Eagles last week. Since 2015, teams listed as a 14-point underdog or higher in their previous game are 34-20 (63%) against the first-half spread in their next game over the last 20 years.

+ Davis Mills is 12-7 against the first half spread in his career.

+ Texans are 9-31-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.

Since 2016, Texans are 10-43-1 SU, but 25-29 ATS as underdogs of over a FG.

+ Giants have won and covered 75% of their games coming off a bye week. The Giants also got smoked by the Seahawks before the bye. New York is only the third team in the last 20 years to win and cover 75% of their games coming off a bye, where they lost their last game by double-digits.

2009 Titans: Lost as home favorites vs. Ravens

2006 Bengals: Lost as road favorites vs. Buccaneers

+ Giants are 6-2 ATS, their best ATS start since 2008 (6-2 ATS).

+ Daniel Jones biggest favorite

  • -6.5, 2020, at Bengals (W, 19-17)
  • -4.5, 2022, vs. Texans
  • -3.5, 2019, vs. Cardinals (L, 27-21)

+ How does Jones perform vs. bad opponents? Against teams in October or later with win pct of 25% or less, he’s just 3-3 SU/ATS.

+ Jones is the most profitable QB ATS this season at 6-2 ATS (+$358)

+ Jones’ fourth career start off bye (13 days of rest or more): 1-2 SU/ATS. First game at home off a bye.

+ Daniel Jones is 1-8 SU on extended rest in his NFL career, losing by 7 PPG.

+ Three straight Giants games have gone under the total.

  • With a win vs. the Texans, Giants can push their win total over of seven wins this season (six wins currently).

+ Since the start of 2020, Jones has faced a “bad offense” three times — teams scoring 17 PPG or fewer — Giants are 0-3 SU in those games.

+ Giants home unders are 15-1 in their last 16 games, going under the total by 9 PPG.

+ Jones home unders are 17-6

» Return to the table of contents «

Saints at Steelers 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NO (-1.5) | O/U: 39.5
Andy Dalton, NO
2022CareerRoad (Career)
3-3 ATS
2-4 SU
79-72-6 ATS
78-77-2 SU
38-35-3 ATS
33-43 SU
Kenny Pickett, PIT
2022CareerHome (Career)
2-2 ATS
1-3 SU
2-2 ATS
1-3 SU
1-0 ATS
1-0 SU

+ Steelers have 14 days of rest; Saints are on six days of rest. Teams with more than a full week of rest are just 45-61-1 ATS vs. teams with less than a full week over the last 20 years.

  • Advantage or disadvantage? Road favorites on short rest are 45-33-3 (57.7%) ATS since 2016, covering the spread by almost 3 PPG.
  • Saints are 0-3 ATS on the road this season, the longest road ATS losing streak for New Orleans since 2017.
  • Since the beginning of the 2018 regular season, Andy Dalton has been a road favorite five times — against Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Brandon Allen, Kyle Allen and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Dalton is 1-4 ATS in those games.

+ Saints faced the Ravens on MNF in Week 9. This season, teams are 7-0-1 ATS the week after playing the Ravens, the only undefeated prior opponent in the NFL.

+ Falcons, Cowboys, Texans and Saints are all on the road this week after playing consecutive home games. All four teams are now facing home teams who are coming off consecutive road games. In this spot, road teams have held the clear advantage, going 42-24-2 ATS (64%) since 2018.

+ Steelers off a bye this week — Mike Tomlin is 14-6 SU, 9-11 ATS off a bye (13 days of rest or more).

+ Tomlin has coached six home games off a bye in the regular season. He is 5-1 SU, winning by 9 PPG. His only loss? Saints in 2014.

+ Steelers are home underdogs coming off a bye this week. The first time that’s happened for Pittsburgh since 2004 against the Patriots and Tom Brady (+3, PIT won 34-20).

+ Tomlin is 14-8 SU and 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career. His 16-3-3 ATS mark as a home dog is the best of any head coach over the last 20 years.

+ Any advantage to betting Tomlin with extra rest? He’s 28-28-2 ATS on extended rest (eight days or more). When he’s listed as an underdog? 8-4-1 ATS, covering four in a row.

+ Tomlin is 11-4 SU out of the bye with five straight wins.

+ Tomlin is 39-16-1 ATS (71%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward, and he’s nearly untouchable at home. He’s 14-2-1 ATS there, covering nine straight and winning the last seven times outright.

Lions at Bears 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: CHI (-3) | O/U: 48.5
Jared Goff, DET
2022CareerRoad (Career)
4-5 ATS
2-6 SU
49-45-2 ATS
49-46-1 SU
24-22 ATS
22-23-1 SU
Justin Fields, CHI
2022CareerHome (Career)
4-5 ATS
3-6 SU
7-12 ATS
5-14 SU
3-6 ATS
3-6 SU

+ Jared Goff is 0-10-1 SU on the road in his last 11 starts, losing by 13 PPG.

In Sunday's loss to the Dolphins, Justin Fields broke Michael Vick’s NFL record for rushing yards by a QB in a game (178).

+ Goff as underdog: 11-29-1 SU, 21-20 ATS

Of 121 QBs since 2016, Goff is ranked 115th in ML profit as a dog.

+ Goff has played two games with Lions off a SU win: 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS)

+ Bears play back-to-back home games at Soldier Field — the first time Justin Fields will do that in his NFL career.

+ Fields vs. NFC North: 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS (second game vs. Lions: W, 24-14 last season)

+ Fields’ third career game as a favorite: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS

+ Three straight Bears games have gone over the total.

» Return to the table of contents «

Browns at Dolphins 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: MIA (-3.5) | O/U: 49.5
Jacoby Brissett, CLE
2022CareerRoad (Career)
4-4 ATS
3-5 SU
23-20-2 ATS
17-28 SU
9-9-2 ATS
4-16 SU
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
2022CareerHome (Career)
4-3 ATS
6-1 SU
16-11-1 ATS
19-9 SU
10-4 ATS
11-3 SU

+ Browns off a bye this week. Over the last decade, the Browns are 1-7-1 ATS off a bye week. Head coach Kevin Stefanski off bye week: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS

  • Stefanski on the moneyline:
  • 17-8 SU, 8-17 ATS as favorite
  • 5-12 SU, 10-7 ATS as underdog

+ Browns have lost six of their last seven road games SU.

+ Jacoby Brissett career as an underdog: 6-21 SU (13-12-2 ATS)

+ Dolphins have a bye next week. Bettors prepare. Tua Tagovailoa is 2-0 SU after the bye, averaging ~30 PPG.

+ Dolphins are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.

+ Tagovailoa at home: 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS. Two of the four games he lost ATS he won the home game SU.

+ Tyreek Hill is the second favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +350. He opened at 50-1.

+ Dolphins on a three-game win streak. The win streak has been unfriendly to them. In the last 20 years, they are 7-16-1 ATS on a three-plus-game win streak when they are above .500 SU.

+ Last four Dolphins home games have gone under the total.

+ Browns and Dolphins feature two defenses allowing 24+ PPG with a over/under below 50. Last 20 years with games in November or later, the under is 145-106-6 (57.8%) in those games, including 14-6 to the under since start of last season.

Vikings at Bills 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: BUF (-6) | O/U: 44
Kirk Cousins, MIN
2022CareerRoad (Career)
3-4-1 ATS
7-1 SU
65-64-2 ATS
67-62-2 SU
34-30-1 ATS
27-37-1 SU
Josh Allen, BUF (TBD)
2022CareerHome (Career)
4-4 ATS
7-2 SU
41-29-4 ATS
48-26 SU
20-15-2 ATS
27-10 SU

+ Vikings have won six consecutive games SU (MIN has covered just two of those games).

  • Vikings are streaking, winning six straight, facing a stellar defense. Teams winning six-plus consecutive games and facing a defense allowing 17 PPG or less are 33-24-2 ATS in the last 20 years. They've covered three straight since 2019.

+ Cousins' career: 65-64-2 ATS (35-36-2 ATS with MIN)

1 p.m. ET or earlier: 45-34-2 ATS

4 p.m. ET or later: 20-30 ATS

+ Vikings are 7-1 SU this season and opened as a 7.5-point underdog against the Bills. They are the first team in their ninth game or later to have an 80% win pct and open as above a TD underdog in a decade. The last? 2013 Chiefs and Alex Smith — lost 27-17 to the Broncos.

+ Vikings are fourth team on five-plus game SU win streak to face Josh Allen – all in Buffalo, two of three won in Buffalo.

+ Allen after a loss: 16-6 SU, 12-9-1 ATS — only 5-5-1 SU, 7-4 ATS at home.

+ Bills are 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS after a loss when they scored 17 pts or less.

+ Last six Bills games have gone under the total (7 of the last 8).

Under is 11-7 in last 18 home starts for Allen.

If Josh Allen cannot start…

+ Bills haven’t started a backup QB since 2018 (Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman and Matt Barkley). Over the last decade, the Bills are 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS when a backup QB starts.

  • Case Keenum is 31-32-3 ATS in his career as a starter. Keenum has faced three teams allowing 17 PPG or fewer in October or later in his career:
  • 2019 with Washington vs. 49ers (+10, Lost 9-0)
  • 2016 with Rams vs. Bills (+2.5, Lost 30-19)
  • 2013 with Texans at Chiefs (+7, Lost 17-16)

» Return to the table of contents «

Broncos at Titans 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: TENN (-2.5) | O/U: 38.5
Russell Wilson, DEN
2022CareerRoad (Career)
3-4 ATS
3-4 SU
93-81-7 ATS
116-64-1 SU
33-34-1 ATS
26-42 SU
2022CareerHome (Career)

+ Broncos are off a bye week. Russell Wilson off 13-plus days rest: 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS

+ This will be the second game Russ plays on extended rest with Broncos: +3.5, 19-16 loss in Chargers

+ Broncos are 300-1 to win the Super Bowl as of now, longest odds of the season.

+ Wilson by time zone — EST: 23-13-2 ATS

  • Wilson is 33-18-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 3-1 ATS as an underdog with the Broncos.

Wilson has played just four career games as an underdog below a total of 41 and his teams are 4-0 against the spread.

+ Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 102-68-4 ATS (60%) since 2018.

  • Titans-Broncos total is 36.5. The lowest total this season. Since 2019, in games with totals of 37 or fewer points the under is 10-4.

+ Titans have covered the spread in six consecutive games.

  • If the Titans cover against the Broncos, they will have covered the spread in seven consecutive games. Only six AFC teams have accomplished that since 2010:
  • 2021 Bengals
  • 2021 Patriots
  • 2020 Bills
  • 2020 Ravens
  • 2018 Chiefs
  • 2016 Patriots

Last time the Titans covered seven in a row? 2008 regular season.

  • Mike Vrabel's career against the spread as a favorite and as an underdog.
  • Favorite: 18-22-1 ATS
  • Underdog: 23-14 ATS

Vrabel has played five teams in his coaching career who are coming off a bye week (like the Broncos). The Titans are 4-1 ATS, including their cover against the Chiefs last week.

+ Four straight Broncos games have gone under the total.
+ Five straight Titans games have gone under the total.

+ The Titans have had a backup QB start for them seven times since 2016 and they are 5-2 ATS, covering their last two with Malik Willis.

Colts at Raiders 
Channel: CBS | 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: LV (-4.5) | O/U: 41
Sam Ehlinger, IND
2022CareerRoad (Career)
0-2 ATS
0-2 SU
0-2 ATS
0-2 SU
0-1 ATS
0-1 SU
Derek Carr, LV
2022CareerHome (Career)
3-5 ATS
2-6 SU
64-70-2 ATS
59-77 SU
29-32-1 ATS
31-31 SU

  • The Colts' biggest struggles this season have been in the first half. Indianapolis is 0-9 against the first half spread this season and have lost 11 straight games against the first half spread dating back to last year.

Only one other team has started 0-9 against the first half spread since 2005 (2007 49ers).

+ Colts 8-1 to the under this season, 5-0 on the road.

+ Colts' last eight road games have gone under the total.

+ The under has cashed in 13 of the Colts' last 14 games.

+ Colts need to finish the season 8-0 to go over their preseason win total of 10.

+ Over the last 20 years, 33 teams have fired their coach in-season. Those teams have gone 15-18 straight up and 17-16 against the spread in their next game. Those teams had a 90-236-3 straight up record (27.6%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 121-202-5 ATS (37.5%) record prior to the coaching change.

+ Jeff Saturday in, Frank Reich out. Reich's tenure in Indy:

+ 41-35-1 SU, 38-36-3 ATS

Least profitable Colts coach ATS in the last 20 years (only unprofitable Colts coach ATS)

+ 22-16-2 ATS road, 16-20-1 ATS home

+ vs. above .500 teams SU: 21-11 ATS | 13-17-2 ATS vs. below .500 SU

+ The Raiders have now lost three games this season in which they held a lead of at least 17 points. That’s tied for the record for the most such losses by any team in a single season in NFL history.

  • Raiders haven't seen their share of struggling teams in Vegas. Colts are the first team to play in Vegas on a three-plus game SU losing streak.
  • Raiders return home after a loss in Jacksonville. With Derek Carr at QB, Raiders are just 4-8 ATS at home after returning home from a road game, failing to cover the spread by 3.7 PPG.

+ The 2-6 Raiders are 6-point favorites in Week 10 against the Colts. In the last decade, only six teams have been favored by at least six points this late into the season with a win pct of 25% or less and all six failed to cover the spread.

+ Overs are 13-6-1 (68.4%) at Allegiant Stadium, the third-most profitable stadium to the over since the Raiders moved to Vegas.

+ Lowest O/U for Raiders in Vegas:

  • 41.5 – 2021, Broncos (LV 17-13)
  • 42.5 – 2022, Colts
  • 45 – 2021, Dolphins (LV 31-28)

» Return to the table of contents «

Cardinals at Rams 
Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: LAR (-3) | O/U: 40.5
Kyler Murray, ARI
2022CareerRoad (Career)
4-5 ATS
3-6 SU
28-26-2 ATS
25-30-1 SU
17-9-2 ATS
15-13 SU
Matthew Stafford, LAR (TBD)
2022CareerHome (Career)
2-6 ATS
3-5 SU
87-106-4 ATS
93-103-1 SU
44-54 ATS
50-48 SU

+ Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t been great late in the season.

  • Week 1-7: 20-8 ATS
  • Week 8+: 10-19-2 ATS

+ Kingsbury is 21-11-2 ATS as an underdog, and that includes 15-5-2 ATS (83%) on the road.

+ Kyler Murray 25-29-1 2H ATS. 19-11-1 as underdog, 6-18 as favorite.

+ Murray by timezone:

  • PST/MST: 15-21-2 ATS
  • EST/CST: 13-4 ATS

+ Murray as a dog: 14-16-1 SU, 19-10-2 ATS (second-best in NFL since 2019, Jimmy Garoppolo)

+ Sean McVay vs. Cardinals: 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS. Most profitable opponent ATS, covering by 10.2 PPG.

+ McVay has lost back-to-back games in a single season eight times and he is 6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS in his next game, including 4-0 SU at home since 2020.

  • McVay is 17-11 ATS after a straight up loss in his NFL coaching career, including 10-5-1 ATS in that spot when facing a divisional opponent.

Rams are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS when facing the Cardinals under McVay after a SU loss.

+ Recipe for more points? Just the second time McVay will face a defense who has allowed 30-plus points in three straight games (Washington in 2020, Rams scored 30).

Cowboys at Packers 
Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: DAL (-4.5) | O/U: 44.5
Dak Prescott, DAL
2022CareerRoad (Career)
2-1 ATS
2-1 SU
50-40-2 ATS
56-36 SU
25-17-1 ATS
24-19 SU
Aaron Rodgers, GB
2022CareerHome (Career)
3-6 ATS
3-6 SU
134-97-5 ATS
153-82-1 SU
70-40-4 ATS
90-23-1 SU

+ Cowboys off a bye week. Dak Prescott is 3-2 SU/ATS off a bye, including 2-0 SU/ATS on the road.

+ Prescott on extended rest (eight days or more), including season opener: 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS

In the last 20 years, Prescott is the seventh-most profitable QB ATS on extended rest.

Since he was drafted in 2016, Prescott is the second-best QB ATS on extended rest, behind Tom Brady.

  • Cowboys have struggled historically against Aaron Rodgers, going 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS, including losing three straight games SU/ATS.

+ Prescott is 50-40-2 ATS (55.6%) in his career.

23-8-2 ATS (74.2%) vs. opponents below .500 SU

  • +$1,384 – second to Brady since 2005 ($2,909)

14-23 ATS (37.8%) vs. opponents above .500 SU

  • -$975 – 108th of 110 QBs since he was drafted in 2016

Aaron Rodgers has started 121 home games at Lambeau Field in his NFL career, including this week against the Cowboys. This is the first time he will close above a field goal underdog.

Even with Rodgers' 1-2 ATS start at home this year, his 20-11 ATS mark since 2019 is the best in the NFL.

+ Rodgers biggest home dog spreads in career:

  • +5 – 2022 vs. DAL
  • +3 – 2016 vs. SEA (W, 38-10)
  • +3 – 2013 vs. SF (L, 23-20)
  • +3 – 2009 vs. DAL (W, 17-7)
  • +3 – 2008 vs. DAL (L, 27-16)

+ Rodgers will play his eighth career game after the Packers scored fewer than 10 points. Green Bay is 6-1 SU and ATS, covering by 11 PPG.

+ Packers are 150-1 to win the Super Bowl entering Week 10 — Green Bay’s longest odds to win it all since Week 15 of 2018, when they were 300-1 and lost to the Bears to fall to 5-8-1 SU.

+ Packers lost to the Lions last week. Under Aaron Rodgers, Packers are 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS week after losing to an NFC North opponent.

  • If the Packers lose, they officially go under their win total of 11 for the season. In Rodgers’ 14 seasons, the Packers are just 7-7 to the over on their win total.

+ Packers: 3-6 is their worst start since 2005. It's their first five-game skid since 2008.

Green Bay 3-6 SU or worse starts: 2005, 2002, 1992, 1991 (missed playoffs all four seasons)

+ Packers five-plus game losing streaks in Wild Card era: 2022, 2008, 2005, 1990

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Chargers at 49ers 
Channel: NBC | 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: SF (-7.5) | O/U: 45.5
Justin Herbert, LAC
2022CareerRoad (Career)
5-3 ATS
5-3 SU
21-19 ATS
20-20 SU
9-10 ATS
12-7 SU
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
2022CareerHome (Career)
3-3 ATS
3-3 SU
34-24-1 ATS
40-19 SU
12-13-1 ATS
17-9 SU

+ Chargers are 4-0 ATS on the road this season.

+ Justin Herbert career: 20-20 SU and 21-19 ATS.

When looking at the lookahead line for this game, it was listed at a pick'em. Now, the 49ers are heavy favorites.

+ Herbert is 11-5 ATS when the line moves against the Chargers (e.g., +2.5 to +4.5).

+ Herbert has played on road in PST twice, both were tight games: 35-32 loss to Raiders and a 30-27 win over the Raiders.

  • Herbert largest underdog in career:
  • +8.5: 2020, Chiefs, L 23-20
  • +7.5: 2020, Bucs, L 38-31
  • +7: 2022, 49ers
  • +7: 2020, Saints, L 27-21
  • Herbert against the second half spread:
  • 1-7 in primetime
  • 2-6 in 2022
  • 11-27-2 (29%) overall (least profitable QB in spot since drafted)
  • Herbert by time zone:
  • EST/CST: 11-4 ATS
  • MST/PST: 10-15 ATS
  • Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is.
  • Under 50: 10-3 to over
  • 50 or more: 8-4 to under

+ 49ers are 1-30 SU when trailing by three-plus points entering the fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan.

  • Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
  • Favorite: 19-27-1 ATS (4th worst)
  • Underdog: 29-19 ATS (5th best)

All About Jimmy G…

+ Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday Night Football:

  • 2021-now: 0-3 SU/ATS
  • 2016-20: 4-0 SU/ATS

+ Jimmy G by time zone.

  • PST/MST: 18-17-1 ATS
  • CST/EST: 16-6 ATS

+ Jimmy G by rest, eight days or more: 7-3 ATS

+ Jimmy G is 9-12-1 ATS as a home favorite, he’s covered three straight in this spot for the first time in his career.

+ The 49ers are 38-19 straight up and 32-24-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.

+ Jimmy G likes to stay west. In his career, he is 12-4-1 ATS when he plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in his previous game as well.

Commanders at Eagles 
Channel: ESPN | 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: PHI (-11) | O/U: 43.5
Taylor Heinicke, WAS
2022CareerRoad (Career)
2-0-1 ATS
2-1 SU
10-9-1 ATS
9-11 SU
5-4 ATS
5-4 SU
Jalen Hurts, PHI
2022CareerHome (Career)
5-3 ATS
8-0 SU
14-13-1 ATS
17-11 SU
9-3-1 ATS
8-5 SU

  • With Carson Wentz injured, the Commanders are rolling with Taylor Heinicke. "Backup QBs" this season are 18-23 SU and 23-17-1 ATS.

A "backup QB" designates a QB who starts not based on a benching or coach decision. That matches the Commanders and Browns this week and could include the Bills and Titans.

+ Double-digit underdogs on MNF are 27-13-2 ATS in the last 20 years.

Worth noting: underdogs of 7.5 to 9.5 are 14-18 ATS on MNF in this span, so the full ten points matters.

Overall, double-digit underdogs at night are 63-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.

+ Commanders have played some very close games lately, with an average scoring margin of just +0.2 in their last five games. Teams with a margin of +/- 2 (1.9 to -1.9) in their last five games, who face a team 8-0 SU or better, are 19-6-1 ATS in the last 20 years, covering by 3.4 PPG.

+ Jalen Hurts’ third career MNF start. Won at home vs. Vikings, lost on road in Cowboys.

Hurts in night games: 4-2-1 ATS. Won four straight SU.

+ 8-0 SU or better teams are 99-53 SU, 62-85-5 ATS (42.2%) over the last 20 years, including 24-37-1 ATS (39.3%) over the last decade.

+ Eagles are 4-0 ATS at home this year (11-4-1 ATS last 16 home games).

+ In the last 20 years, 28 teams who were 8-0 SU or better and played a game on at least 10 days' rest are just 15-13 SU and 8-20 ATS.

+ Hurts is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +325. He opened at 30-1.

+ In the last 20 years, 38 teams who were 8-0 SU or better and played a game in primetime are 23-15 SU, but just 13-23-2 ATS.

+ 8-0 SU or better on MNF last 5 years:

  • 2022 8-0 PHI (-11) vs. WAS
  • 2020 11-0 PIT (-5.5) vs. WAS (L, 23-17)
  • 2019 8-0 SF (-6.5) vs. SEA (L, 27-24)
  • 2017 8-0 NE (-10) at MIA (L, 27-20)

Market Movers 

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 10 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 10)

73% of bets vs. Lions
72% of bets vs. Saints
66% of bets at Packers

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 10
(The most popular bet games for Week 10, excluding Thursday Night Football)

39,000 betting tickets
38,000 betting tickets
32,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 10

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines):

(+4.5 to -4.5)
9-pt move at Packers
(-3.5 to -11)
7.5-pt move vs. Commanders
(0 to -7.5)
7.5-pt move vs. Chargers

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The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Sharp bet
Browns +3.5 | Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Bet %
CLE: 52% of Bets
Handle %
CLE: 79% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.

Cardinals at Rams Projections

LAR -140LAR -121+3.4% (B- Grade)

Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.

PRO Systems

Fade Covering Teams: Teams that are frequently covering by a large amount will be highly respected in the market. The public will also fall in love with these teams. When books adjust, the lines figure to be inflated and these teams should statistically regress towards the mean.
Week 10 picks -> PRO Access

PRO Props

Top Props for Week 10: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Bet: Over 9.5 rush attempts (-110)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.

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The Big Picture

The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update 1st quarter, 1st half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 10, both the Seahawks and the Jets are on the rise as both are inside 50-1 to win the Super Bowl…

SB: 35-1 (was as high as 500-1 entering Week 6)

SB: 50-1 (was as high as 300-1 entering Week 5)

Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.

2022 Season Betting Update
Anytime TD Crisis
Last three weeks, there's been 42 anytime TD scorers w/ minus odds (ex. -110).
16 have scored a TD and 26 have not.
The worst stretch for odds-on ATTD for the 2022 season.
Anytime TD TRIVIA!
Only one player has been odds-on for each of his anytime TD props during the 2022 regular season…
It's Austin Ekeler, who has scored in his last 5 games.
Divisional Unders
Unders are 30-13 in NFL division games this season.
Best start for divisional unders in the last 20 years.
Week 10 matches:ATL/CAR, ARI/LAR, DET/CHI, WAS/PHI
Big Favorites
Favorites of 7 pts or more: 21-9-1 SU, 11-20 ATS
+The 2nd-least profitable start for TD favorites last 20 years.
The Public
(Public = 51% of tickets or more)
51%+: 56-72-3 ATS
60%+: 27-33-1 ATS
66%+: 13-18 ATS
+ The worst start through nine games for the public in the last 20 years.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.

Time For Orange Slices!

So far this season, halftime has changed everything in the NFL.

Second half unders are 78-53-4 (59.5%), the best start for second half unders since 2016 and the second-best start since 2005.

It's not only totals though.

This season, teams trailing at halftime are 73-48-1 (60%) against the second-half spread.

The best start for teams trailing at the half since 2015 and the second-best start since 2005.

Motivation For Some Rest!

So far during the 2022 NFL regular season, 20 teams have played a game entering their bye week.

Those 20 teams are 15-5 straight up and 16-4 against the spread, including the Ravens who demolished the Saints on Monday Night Football

Week 10 matches: Bucs and Seahawks are both off a bye. Ignore

Jaguars and Dolphins have a bye next week.

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Action Audio 

  • The Favorites Podcast: After nearly sweeping the board last week, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return from Lexington to look at the Week 10 slate across the NFL. Together they start to narrow down their contest picks, which have yet to have a losing week this season. They breakdown the Browns, the Broncos, the Packers and more, plus give out their Simon Says, Executive Decision and Foxhole Bets of the Week.

  • Action Network Podcast: Underdogs and unders have cashed for gamblers all season long, and Action Network experts Chris Raybon and Stuckey have seen the results firsthand. This week our duo builds a Sunday Six Pack of against the spread picks in the hopes all 'dogs go to heaven this week, leaning on the likes of Cleveland and Seattle. Plus we get a couple juicy under plays, some moneyline underdogs.

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.

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What's Next?

Week 11 Trends: COMING SOON!

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