We have a matchup 40+ years in the making, another head coach ousted with Brian Daboll out in New York and one of the tightest MVP races we've seen.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 11 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, November 11, at 5 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
NFC West Showdown
Best of the Best
The Seahawks are 7-2 SU and ATS.
The Rams are 7-2 SU and ATS.
The best two teams ATS in the NFL this season, but both teams enter their 10th game with a win pct of 77%+ both SU and ATS. In the Wild Card era since 1990, we’ve yet to have a matchup of teams both with a win pct SU and ATS of 77%+ face off in their 10th game or later.
Second Fire
Giants Can Daboll
Giants fired Brian Daboll on Monday, and New York now faces the Packers this week. Let’s start with the impact on the team in recent history. Last decade, Daboll was the 24th coach to be fired or resign in-season and 2nd this season, with Titans and Brian Callahan; those prior 23 teams went 10-13 SU and 11-12 ATS in their next game. At home, they are just 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after the firing.
An upset from the Giants against the Packers at anything above +7, would be the biggest upset in the 1st game after a mid-season firing since the 2011 Chiefs at +11 after they fired Todd Haley and went to Romeo Crennel and beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Here is the real impact of the in-season coaching change. Last decade, before the firing those 24 teams had won 27.5% of games SU (63-166-3 SU) and 37.9% of games ATS (86-141-5 ATS). After the firing, they went 33.1% SU (49-101 SU) and 48.7% ATS (72-76-2 ATS), a decent improvement overall.
We Meet Again
12 Years Later
A unique spot. The Broncos are 8-2 SU and are 3.5-point home underdogs vs. Chiefs this week. Both starting QBs are healthy. Both plan to play the whole game. No funny business.
Since the start of 2013, we've only seen one other game this late into the season where both starting QBs were in and an 8-2 or better team were underdogs of above 3 pts:
The 9-2 Chiefs behind Alex Smith were +5 at home on December 1st of 2013 against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Denver ended up winning the game 35-28 on the road.
Six Horse Race
Big Field
Entering Week 11, the MVP race is unlike any other. There are currently six different players listed at 10-1 or shorter to win the award as of now, the biggest list at this point of the season in the last decade.
Updated MVP Odds:
Matthew Stafford: +275
Drake Maye: +300
Patrick Mahomes: +500
Jonathan Taylor: +500
Josh Allen: +700
Sam Darnold: +1000
Back Again
Patriots Big Favorite vs. Jets
Once again, New England is a double-digit favorite. The first time since the end of the 2021 season and the first time vs. the Jets since Tom Brady in 2019.
Since 2000, this will be the 14th time the Patriots will be a double-digit favorite vs. Jets, most of any matchup (2nd is BAL vs. CLE, KC vs. LVR and NE vs. MIA, all tied with 11).
Every NFL Game For Week 11
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➤ The Patriots have won 7 consecutive games outright and they are 6-1 ATS in those seven games. Last decade, we’ve only seen five other teams have a stretch of 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS in Week 11 or earlier, for teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year prior – surprise teams.
2025 Patriots
2021 Cardinals – lost in WC
2020 Steelers – lost in WC
2017 Eagles – won Super Bowl
2017 Saints – won WC, lost in DIV
2016 Cowboys – lost in DIV
Four of five teams lost in the Divisional Round or earlier, three lost their first playoff game – but the 2017 Eagles went on to win the Super Bowl.
➤ New England gets their first home night game in 2.5 years, last occurring in September of 2023.
At night in primetime, the Patriots have lost five consecutive home games outright. For reference on how long this streak is for New England, between 2003 and 2019, the Patriots went 37-8 SU at home in night games before this 5-game outright losing streak.
➤ Then we have the Jets. They have played 9 road games in primetime since the start of the 2017 season, New York is 1-8 SU, losing 8 in a row outright. Last Jets QB to win on the road in primetime was Sam Darnold in 2018 over Stafford and the Lions in Week 1.
➤ The Patriots broke a 2-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Jets in Week 8 last year – which was New York’s first 2-game SU/ATS win streak vs. NE since 2008-09.
Overall, Jets are 2-16 SU in their last 18 games vs. Patriots, including 4-24 SU since the start of the 2011 season. Prior to the two straight wins, they had lost 15 consecutive games vs. NE. Drake Maye has only faced the Jets once – a 25-22 win at home.
This will also be Maye’s 2nd start at night in a primetime game. Maye and the Patriots beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season.
➤ Another important aspect of Thursday Night Football, preparing on short rest. This will be the 2nd time Drake Maye plays on short rest, he lost 40-7 vs. the Chargers in December of last year.
When a Vrabel-coached team is a favorite on short rest, he is 2-6 ATS.
➤ Home teams on a Thursday are under .500 ATS in 6 of the last 7 seasons, overall they are 52-63-1 ATS since 2019, when they are listed as a favorite they are 32-41-1 ATS, including 25-37 ATS in any game before December.
➤ A historically tough spot for the Jets. New York is coming off a bye before their last game vs. the Browns and now they play on Thursday Night Football – the ultimate short week. Teams in that spot are 15-26-1 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990), including 5-13 ATS since 2018.
➤ Mike Vrabel is 33-11 SU and 27-16-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU with the Patriots and Titans. This season, the Patriots are 6-0 SU vs. teams under .500 winning by 13.2 PPG, and since 2020, Vrabel is 24-6 SU vs. bad teams.
➤ The Patriots have started fast lately. Under Drake Maye, they have won 7 straight 1st halves on the moneyline, including 10-1 1H ML in their last 11 games dating back to last season.
Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Maye is 9-2 1H ATS, with New England’s only 1H ML loss to the Steelers back in September.
➤ Patriots are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS this season. They lead the AFC East, they are 2-0 in division and 5-0 SU on the road. Maybe the best note for NE is the fact they also have the easiest remaining SOS by win pct, with their opponents holding a 33.8% win pct. Only one other team is even below 43% for their opp. WP, and that is the Saints at 35.4%.
➤ When the Patriots lead by a TD or more (6+ pts) at any point in the game, they are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this season, 1 of 2 undefeated teams SU this season with just the 49ers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS).
When a Vrabel-led team leads by 6 pts or more at any point, they are 57-17 SU and 51-22-1 ATS in those games.
➤ The streak came to an end last week, but we can start a new one. The Patriots' rush defense has been absurd this year.
1 of 22 RBs to get a rush attempt vs. NE this year has finished the game with 50 yds or more and that was Sean Tucker with 53 yards in Week 10.
Here are the most rushing attempts and yards vs. NE this year:
Jeanty: 19-38
Warren: 18-47
Cook: 15-49
Bijan: 12-46
Achane: 11-30
White: 10-38
Hubbard: 10-49
Tucker: 9-53
Judkins: 9-19
Dowdle: 9-32
Kendre: 8-21
➤ Both Vrabel and Aaron Glenn are in their first seasons with a new team, but Glenn is a double-digit road underdog on a short week, bit of a different spot.
Coaches in their first season with a new team are 6-35 SU playing on a Thursday as an underdog in the last decade (18-23 ATS in those games). Favorites are 16-7 SU in that same spot.
➤ Double-digit favorites in night games are 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%) over the last 20 years, 19-23-2 ATS when those two teams are in the same division.
➤ Just as franchises, Washington has only played one International game (2016, tie 27-27 vs. Bengals), while the Dolphins have played in six in total.
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn will coach his first International game, while Marcus Mariota will be starting his 2nd, playing in his first back in 2018, when he played for the Titans in a 20-19 loss.
Tua Tagovailoa has started two International games and he is 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by one possession in both games. Since International games began, only QB is 0-3 ATS or worse – Philip Rivers.
➤ A few facts and trends from the 55 total international games – unders have a small edge at 28-27, but over the last two seasons, overs are 6-4 in International Series games.
Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 15-12 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 2-0 to the under
Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 7-5 to the over
Croke Park: 1-0 to the over
Olympic Stadium Berlin: 1-0 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games.
+ They are 40-14-1 SU and 34-21 ATS and favorites of a FG or more overseas are 30-9-1 SU, 24-16 ATS.
+ Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 20-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
+ Favorites at Tottenham are 5-7 ATS. All other international stadiums: 29-13 ATS.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 22-18 ATS
66%+: 15-10 ATS
70%+: 9-3 ATS
➤ When two teams both under .500 SU face in an International game, the favorite is 10-5 ATS, covering the spread by 5 PPG.
➤ When Tua opens a pick’em or an underdog, he is 8-17 SU away from home (road/neutral), including 5-14 SU since the start of 2022, losing by 7.5 PPG.
➤ The cycle continues for the Dolphins. They were blown out by the Ravens 28-6. Then they bounced back vs. the Bills and upset them as 8.5-pt underdogs. Now, Miami is favored in Spain to beat the Commanders.
Let’s look at a trend for the life cycle of a team playing up for one opponent.
• A team that loses by 20+ pts (MIA vs. BAL)
• Then is a home dog of 7+ & upsets team (MIA vs. BUF)
• After the upset (& the 20+ pt loss), those teams are 7-20 SU in their next game last 20 years, including 2-14 SU in their last 16 games in the spot.
➤ When simply looking at their chances to win a game they shouldn’t, here is how both QBs for Washington have performed as underdogs over the last four seasons.
Jayden Daniels: 6-7 SU, 28.7 PPG for WAS
Marcus Mariota: 3-10 SU, 21.2 PPG for WAS/ATL
Mariota has lost 7 straight starts outright when listed as an underdog.
➤ Marcus Mariota has struggled early in games throughout his career, going 15-29-2 in the first half ATS as an underdog — the 2nd-worst mark among 263 quarterbacks since 2005. In road/neutral games as a dog, Mariota is 8-20-2 1H ATS.
➤ The struggles are real for Washington heading to this game in Spain. Commanders have lost four straight games by 21+ pts – the first NFL team to lose 4 straight games by at least 21 points in 23 years (Cardinals in 2002).
The record is five straight losses by 21+, last set in 1965 by the Steelers.
It’s odd to see a team off four straight awful losses to only be a 2-3 pt underdog. Since 2000, we’ve only seen six teams lose four straight by 14+ pts and then be listed as a favorite or dog of 3 pts or less – those teams went 1-5 SU, with actually the 2002 Cardinals team winning outright.
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➤ A road turnaround like no other. In Carolina’s last two road games, they won outright as underdogs in both the first half moneyline and full game moneyline.
Prior to this 2-game road stretch, Bryce Young was 1-11 1H ATS in his last 12 road starts and Carolina was 2-18 SU in their previous 20 road games.
➤ Falcons have now lost two in a row both SUATS to the Panthers – In Panthers franchise history, they’ve never had a 3-game SU/ATS win streak against Atlanta.
Last 4 years (since 2022), Falcons have lost both SU and ATS in three straight games in Week 10 or later vs. the Panthers – all three games Atlanta was the favorite.
➤ Falcons return from Germany after facing the Colts last week, without a bye week in between.
Atlanta will be the 31st teams to play a game on 7 days' rest or less coming off an International Series game. Those teams are actually 19-11 SU, 16-14 ATS in their next game, including 16-11 SU and 13-14 ATS when the team returns from overseas and 3-0 SU/ATS in consecutive International games.
In those 30 games, the team on 7 days rest or less coming off an International game, was tied or trailing entering the 4th quarter 19 times.
➤ Panthers first division road game comes in Week 11 and the theme is mostly payback.
• Panthers last game vs. Falcons, Carolina won 30-0.
• Panthers last road game in Atlanta, a road win 44-38.
When Raheem Morris lost by 20+ in his previous game against a team, he is 7-2 ATS in his next matchup. Raheem has had a better history covering on the road vs. at home. He’s 22-19-1 ATS on the road and 14-26 ATS at home.
➤ Since 2019, underdogs with MNF on deck are actually covering the spread at a 57% rate at 61-46-4 ATS, which worked with the Raiders on TNF last week.
➤ Bryce Young doesn’t have a great history against the first half spread, going 13-24 1H ATS in his career, but of the 8 teams he’s faced 2+ times, Atlanta is the only team he has 2+ 1H ATS covers against (2-2 1H ATS).
➤ Back to the role of the underdog. Panthers were favorites vs. Saints last week and lost outright, the 11th consecutive loss as a favorite for Carolina dating back to Septmeber of 2021 – the longest streak for any team since the merger. Carolina is actually won their last two games outright as underdogs the week after being a favorite.
➤ Going 0-for-8 on 3rd down is nothing anyone should be proud of, but the Falcons at least covered vs. Colts last week.
Since 2012, we’ve actually seen 8 teams go 0-8 or worse on 3rd down and come back and be favored in their next game, those teams went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS. A good bounce back.
➤ Bills are coming off one of their worst losses in the Josh Allen era. They lost 30-13 as 8.5-point favorites in Miami last week, failing to cover the spread by 25.5 points in total.
From a spread perspective, it was the 3rd-worst loss of Allen’s career and looking at it from an ATS margin perspective, it was the 3rd-worst margin of his career, with the last loss coming back to the Colts in November of 2021.
Allen has started nine games where the Bills were off a double-digit loss and Buffalo is 6-3 SU/ATS in those games, covering the spread by 11.4 PPG, including 1-0 already in 2025 when they faced the Panthers and won 40-9.
When Allen starts a game where Buffalo scored 16 pts or less in their previous game, he is 13-6 ATS, covering by over 8 PPG.
➤ Both the Bills and Bucs are off a loss for this matchup, with Tampa Bay losing at home to the Patriots last week.
When Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are off of a loss as a duo, they are 13-4 ATS in their next game (Baker is 15-4 ATS with Bucs and Rams) and they’ve covered six in a row in this spot.
In his career, Baker is 17-7 ATS when listed as an underdog off of a SU loss, including 12-3 ATS in this spot in the last five seasons (since 2021).
➤ Baker and the Bucs fell apart in the second half vs. Patriots last week. Since Baker arrived in 2023, the Bucs are 29-17 against the second-half spread, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
When the Bucs lose the 2H ATS in their previous game, Tampa Bay under Baker is 14-2 2H ATS in their next game.
➤ Last week, the Bills weren’t able to get to Tua Tagovailoa, officially recording no sacks against Miami on defense.
Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 6-12 SU and 4-14 ATS when recording no sacks on defense – Since the start of 2021, Buffalo is 6-1 SU after recording no sacks in their previous game, winning by 14.3 PPG.
➤ Bucs lost 28-23 to the Patriots last week. Since the beginning of the 2023 season under Todd Bowles, the Bucs are 6-1 ATS the game after allowing 28+ pts.
➤ With Baker Mayfield, Todd Bowles has been better as an underdog as a head coach. But this week is a different test.
Bowles in his career is 5-24 SU as an underdog vs. a team with a double-digit preseason win total, including 2-12 SU when that game is on the road.
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➤ Titans covered the spread in their last game. Not something they can say they’ve done a lot lately. We have to go back to Week 2 of 2023 to find the last time the Titans covered the spread in consecutive games.
Titans have also lost 9 consecutive games ATS after an ATS win dating back to that same 2023 date.
➤ It’s been a long time since the Titans outperformed their opponent on offense.
Tennessee has gone 14 consecutive games scoring fewer TDs than their opponent dating back to the middle of last season – that is the longest streak for any team since 1976-77 Bucs, who did it in 18 straight games.
Most Consecutive Games With Fewer Touchdowns Than Opponent
Chicago Cardinals — 19 games (1942–45)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 18 games (1976–77)
Dayton Triangles — 17 games (1927–29)
Tennessee Titans — 14 games (Active streak)
New York Jets — 14 games (1975–76)
➤ The win of a lifetime for the Texans last week, who trailed 29-10, by 19 points, entering the 4th quarter and then turned around and covered on a last-second pick-six.
Last 5 seasons, teams who trailed by more than one possession entering the 4th quarter who came back and won were just 14-23 ATS in their next game, including 12-21 ATS on normal rest or less.
➤ Houston has had recent success against the Titans. Texans are 5-1 SU/ATS in their last six meetings with Tennessee, winning in Tennessee both SU and ATS in their last four meetings, the longest streak for Houston in Tennessee in franchise history.
➤ Titans have now lost four straight outright and are on some extended rest off the bye before this game agaomst the Texans.
Rest helps covering. Teams on a 3+ game SU losing streak, who are on extended rest, cover 56% of games since 2003, they are above .500 ATS in 5 of the last 6 years.
➤ Stringing together multiple games has been an issue for the Texans. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Houston has played five games directly after scoring 30+ pts, they are 0-5 SU in those games, scoring under 28 pts in all five games.
➤ Cam Ward’s early production in his rookie year has some people worried.
Through 295 pass attempts in 9 career games, Ward has 5 passing TDs. In a QBs first nine career starts, here are the only players to have fewer than 5 pass TDs on 250+ pass attempts:
2022 Kenny Pickett
2006-08 Andrew Walter
1999-00 Akili Smith
Ward is the only QB with 295+ pass attempts and 5 or fewer pass TDs in his first nine starts since 1990.
➤ The Bears have been living on the edge lately. Chicago has won 3 of their last 4 games when they’ve been trailing entering the 4th quarter, this season they are 3-2 SU when trailing after the third and 3-1 SU when leading after the third.
Amazingly enough, Chicago has won and covered five straight games the week after the Bears have trailed entering the 4th quarter, no matter the result.
➤ Since 2020, the Bears are 7-25 SU vs. the NFC North. In that span, only the Jets have fewer SU wins vs. their own division (6) than Chicago does.
This season, Bears are 0-2 SU vs. division opponents and 6-1 SU vs. teams outside the NFC North.
➤ In road games, the Bears were 4-22 SU between the start of 2022 and the Lions masterclass in Week 2 this year. Since that game, Chicago is 3-1 SU in their last four road games behind Caleb Williams. Prior to this 3-1 stretch, Caleb was 1-7 SU on the road.
➤ In JJ McCarthy’s four career starts, he has already faced the NFC North twice, Minnesota is 2-0 SU/ATS, with both games on the road, scoring 27 pts in each game.
➤ Vikings are trying to make it through a gruling stretch of games. They entered this 7-game stretch 3-2 SU, but are 1-3 SU since facing the Eagles, Chargers, Lions and Ravens.
Now with the Bears, Packers and Seahawks on deck. Teams at home after facing four consecutive opponents with a regular season win total of 9+ are just 17-28 ATS over the last decade.
➤ Minnesota is coming off a game to forget, which was predictable after the big upset against the Lions the week before (Vikings are now 0-6 ATS after facing the Lions under Kevin O’Connell).
Last week vs. Ravens, Minnesota had 13 penalties, 3 turnovers and went 3-14 on 3rd down – a recipe for disaster. Minnesota had an amazing 8 false start penalties at home, the most for a home team since 2009.
Not many times a team plays that undisciplined at home and gets a shot to redeem itself the next week. Last 20 years, only three teams have had 13+ penalties and 3+ turnovers at home and played at home in their next game: all 3 lost SU and ATS.
➤ The most important metric for the Bears last week was sacks … on offense. Caleb Williams was clean in the pocket with 0 sacks – 2nd time with Caleb, also in Dallas game earlier this season.
When Caleb gets sacked 2 times or less, Bears are 8-5 SU, when he gets sacked 3+ times, they are 3-10 SU over the last 2 seasons.
➤ Vikings are 0-4 against the 4th quarter spread at home this season, the only team in the NFL without a cover at home in the 4th quarter.
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➤ The Giants fired Brian Daboll on Monday, and New York now faces the Packers this week.
Let’s start with the impact on the team in recent history. Last decade, Daboll was the 24th coach to be fired or resign in-season and 2nd this season, with Titans and Brian Callahan; those prior 23 teams went 10-13 SU and 11-12 ATS in their next game. At home, they are just 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after the firing.
An upset from the Giants against the Packers as a 7-point underdog or higher would be the biggest upset since 2015 for a new in-season head coach (Titans after they fired Ken Whisenhunt, coach was Mike Mularkey). At anything above +7, it was 2011 Chiefs at +11 after they fired Todd Haley and went to Romeo Crennel and beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Here is the real impact of the in-season coaching change. Last decade, before the firing those 24 teams had won 27.5% of games SU (63-166-3 SU) and 37.9% of games ATS (86-141-5 ATS). After the firing, they went 33.1% SU (49-101 SU) and 48.7% ATS (72-76-2 ATS), a decent improvement overall.
➤ Since 2010, we’ve seen 19 coaches fired entering Week 10 or later, those teams went 11-8 ATS in their first game after the coaching change, but none have actually pulled off the outright win since the Lions in 2020.
➤ Packers are 1-3 SU/ATS in games they allow under 17 pts this season — the rest of the NFL is 61-5 SU & 59-7 ATS allowing under 17 pts.
From Opta Stats: Packers have allowed just 39 total points and 780 total yards in their 3 losses this season. They're the first NFL team to allow fewer than 40 points and fewer than 800 yards over their first 3 losses of a season since the Lions in 1940.
➤ The story of the season if not for the injuries with the Giants would be their rush defense.
Through ten games, Giants have allowed 1,521 rushing yards, while allowing opposing players to rush for 5.5 yards per carry.
In the Super Bowl era, there have been 163 teams to allow 1,500+ rush yds through ten games, the Giants 5.5 yards per carry allowed is tied with the 2023 Broncos for the highest mark through ten games.
➤ Giants are 2-4 SU this season when leading by 10+ pts at any point, 2-0 SU at home and 0-4 SU on the road.
New York is the only team below .500 SU when leading by 10+ at any point.
➤ In the first ten weeks of the regular season, Jordan Love is 10-16 ATS in his NFL career – his claim to fame in his career so far is his 2nd half adjustments.
Love is under .500 ATS in the first ten weeks in all three seasons as the full time starter and since 2021, only Spencer Rattler and Daniel Jones are worse than Love in the first ten weeks.
In Week 11 on, Love is 11-7-1 ATS in his career – see if that continues this year.
➤ In Mike Tomlin’s career as head coach of the Steelers he is 27-11 SU and 25-12-1 ATS vs. the Bengals, both are the best marks for any opponent for Tomlin from a profit perspective.
Recently though, this has been a bit of a turnaround. Bengals have beaten the Steelers in two straight and since 2020, Cincinnati is actually 6-5 SU in eleven games vs. Pittsburgh.
➤ The Bengals are off a bye this week facing the Steelers who lost on Sunday Night Football to the Chargers. When the Bengals came off their bye week last year … they also faced the Steelers.
Under Zac Taylor, Bengals have played eight total games off of a bye week and Cincinnati is an even 4-4 SU/ATS – when Taylor has faced an AFC North opponent off a bye, they are 1-4 ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS as underdogs losing by a combined score of 85-23.
Without Burrow, Taylor and Cincinnati have only played one game off a bye, with Ryan Finley in 2019 – a 49-13 loss to the Ravens. On any extended rest, Taylor is 2-6 ATS without Burrow as coach of the Bengals.
➤ Cincinnati’s defense has been historically bad. The Bengals have allowed 500 or more total yards in three games this season — the rest of the NFL has just two combined. They’re giving up 426.6 yards per game, the second-worst rate of any team in the Super Bowl era. And after surrendering 38-plus points in back-to-back losses, they’ve become the only team since 1970 to score that many and lose in consecutive games.
Bengals defense has allowed 27 pts in 8 straight games – There has only been one longer streak for any team in the Super Bowl era, the Chargers in 2020 did it in nine straight games.
In Cincinnati’s last three games, they have been outscored 113-117 – which is basically a 38-38 game on average in their last three matchups. Since 2000, only three teams have lost 2 of 3 games scoring 113+ pts: 2025 Bengals, 2017 Texans, 2015 Jaguars.
➤ Since the start of last season, Bengals are now 2-4 SU in games where they score 35 pts or more, the rest of the NFL is 90-6 SU. When they score more than 30 pts, CIN is just 5-6 SU in that span.
➤ Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers off one of their worst performances offensively with just ten points and 161 passing yards for A-Rod.
Rodgers has done well on the bounce back. After a game with fewer than 200 pass yds, Rodgers is 41-23-2 ATS the game after throwing for under 200 yds, he’s above .500 ATS with all three teams in his career, going above .500 ATS in the last six seasons for Rodgers.
➤ With the Bengals, QB Joe Flacco is 4-0 to the over in his four starts, going over the total by 22.6 PPG.
Any total above 47.5 this week would be the 2nd-highest total in a Flacco-Tomlin game, behind their O/U of 51 in 2018.
This is the 26th meeting between Flacco as a starter and Mike Tomlin as the opposing coach, in their last 11 meetings, Flacco is 7-3-1 ATS vs. Tomlin, and in his career, Flacco is 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog against Tomlin.
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➤ What a terrible loss for the Jaguars last week. Leading 29-10, by 19 points entering the 4th quarter and to turn around and not only lose SU but ATS as well after a pick-six. In the last decade, teams who led by 19+ pts entering the 4th quarter covered 97% of games, when their line was either -3 or less or an underdog, they were 149-1 ATS, with the last loss coming from the Falcons (+3) in the Super Bowl up 28-3 on the Patriots.
Since 2019, teams after blowing a 14+ pt lead entering the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU and 6-12 ATS, we’ve seen four of these teams amazingly since Week 6 this year and they are 0-4 SU in their next game.
➤ Jaguars' defense got roasted last week, allowing Davis Mills and the Texans to go 10-15 on 3rd down, including a whopping 17 passing first downs.
Teams after a defensive performance like that in the pass game, who were also listed as favorited in their previous game are just 15-24 ATS the week after over the last decade.
➤ Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers head east this week to face the Jaguars. Harbaugh is 26-8 SU and 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the EST or CST as a head coach, including 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in the EST.
➤ In road/neutral starts, Justin Herbert has started fast a majority of his career, going 29-17 1H ATS, that is the 2nd-best mark of any QB since he got drafted behind just Jared Goff.
Looking at the full game, Herbert and the Chargers have actually lost three straight ATS road/neutral – In 46 career road/neutral starts for Herbert, this is his 2nd 3-game ATS losing streak away from home, last in 2020 (he’s never lost four straight).
➤ Herbert is now 17-9 ATS in night games after the victory last week against the Steelers, including being on a 6-game ATS win streak at night.
The Chargers have had no let down. When listed as a favorite off a night game, they are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games dating back to 2022.
➤ Question is, can the Jaguars finish this week? This season, Jacksonville is 2-7 against the 4th quarter spread, tied for the worst mark in the NFL. At home, they are 1-4 4Q ATS this season.
➤ Home unders in Trevor Lawrence starts has been the angle in his career, going 23-12, including 5-1 in his last six home starts.
That is the 3rd-best mark in the NFL since he was drafted behind Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud.
➤ Seahawks-Rams is a matchup unlike any other.
The Seahawks are 7-2 SU and ATS.
The Rams are 7-2 SU and ATS.
The best two teams ATS in the NFL this season, but both teams enter their 10th game with a win pct of 77%+ both SU and ATS. In the Wild Card era since 1990, we’ve yet to have a matchup of teams both with a win pct SU and ATS of 77%+ face off in their 10th game or later.
In that 35-year period, the only other game to feature two teams with 75%+ in all four categories this late into the season was the Saints-49ers playoff game in 2011-12, a wild 36-32 finish. Another example before that was the truncated season Super Bowl in 1982-83 which featured the Dolphins and Washington with 75%+ records both SU/ATS.
➤ Sean McVay has dominated the Seahawks. He is 12-5 ATS vs. Seattle as coach of the Rams, including 11-2 ATS since 2019, covering the spread by over 4.9 PPG.
With Stafford at QB, the Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. Seattle, covering the spread by 6.7 PPG.
McVay is 31-20-1 ATS vs. the NFC West in his coaching career – McVay is just 7-11 ATS vs. 49ers, but he is a combined 25-9-1 ATS vs. the Cardinals and Seahawks.
➤ In Mike Macdonald’s short career as coach of the Seahawks, he is 17-9 SU and 13-12-1 ATS – but his teams have been juggernauts on the road. On the road, Seattle is 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS under Macdonald. At home, they are just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS. The only coach with a worse home ATS record in that span? Brian Callahan at 0-10 ATS.
Only two other head coaches have started 11-1 SU on the road with a new franchise: Sean McVay with the Rams and George Seifert with the 49ers – all doing so in the NFC West oddly enough.
Macdonald: 8-3-1 ATS during 11-1 streak.
McVay: 7-5 ATS, 37-25-2 ATS on road after. Didn’t go to 12-1 SU. Went 1-2 SU after 11-1 start.
Seifert: 8-4 ATS, 26-25-1 ATS on road after. Started 16-0 SU on road.
➤ You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last season the Seahawks finished above .500 ATS vs. their own division, a total of 28-35-1 ATS vs. the NFC West … in the NFC, only the Bears have a worse ATS mark vs. their own division in that span.
➤ Hard to get on top of the Seahawks when they are starting off games so hot.
Seattle is 7-2 1H ATS this year, 2nd in the NFL to the Patriots.
Darnold has 12 TD passes, 2 INT and a 75% completion pct (2nd in NFL) in the first half. He has an 11.1 Y/A (best in NFL) with just 2 sacks and 22 20+ yard completions (T-most) … all in the first half.
➤ Matthew Stafford has 25 TD passes and just 2 INTs through 9 games this season. The only other QB with 25+ and 2 INT or less through nine games was Patrick Mahomes in 2020, who went on to win the MVP.
➤ Rams coming off close to a perfect game. 0 penalties, 0 turnovers, 5-6 in the red zone. First time under McVay Rams have a 0 penalty performance and just the second time as a franchise since the merger in 1970, last doing so back in 1990.
Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Rams have played seven games directly after committing 3 penalties or fewer in their previous game – they are 7-0 ATS in those next matchups.
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➤ 49ers have alternated wins and losses in their last eight games overall, starting 2-0 SU, then winning their 3rd game and going win-loss-win-loss in their 7 games after that.
Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are 1-15 against the spread after an outright win, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. After an outright loss in that span, San Francisco is 8-7 ATS.
➤ The 49ers are 5-5 ATS this season through ten games – 4-2 ATS on the road and 1-3 ATS at home, which has been a trend for them lately.
Since the start of 2023, SF is 8-15 ATS at home, the least profitable mark ATS for any team in the NFL. On the road, they are 11-12 ATS, right in the middle of the pack.
➤ In his coaching career with the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan is 8-9 SU vs. the Cardinals, losing a $100 bettor $477 on the moneyline, making Arizona his 2nd-least profitable opponent SU as a head coach, behind only the Chiefs, who he is 0-5 against. From an ATS perspective, he’s 6-10-1 ATS, including 4-7-1 ATS as a favorite.
➤ Facing the NFC West has been a disaster for Arizona lately.
They are 0-3 SU vs. NFC West this season and 4-17 SU vs. the NFC West over the last four seasons, losing a $100 bettor $1,136, the worst mark for any team in the NFL in that span. Only team with less division wins than the Cardinals is the Bears who are 3-17 SU.
In that span, Cardinals are 3-11 SU vs. NFC West with Kyler Murray and 1-6 SU with all other QBs.
➤ Dating back to October 1 of last year, Cardinals have lost eight consecutive games against the first half spread vs. the NFC West, going 1-11 1H ATS in their last 12 overall games vs. their own division. The main culprit of Arizona’s early struggles has been Kyler, who is 6-25 1H ATS vs. the NFC West.
➤ The Cardinals have been a good bounce back team under Jonathan Gannon. After a SU loss, Arizona is 16-10 ATS with Gannon as head coach, including 8-4 ATS after a double-digit loss.
➤ Arizona has started fast this season, with a 7-2 1Q ATS mark, which is the best mark for any team in the NFL. The 1st quarter and 3rd quarter are the more scripted quarters, while the 2nd and 4th have a bit less of that.
Arizona is 15-3 ATS in 1st and 3rd quarters and 7-11 ATS in 2nd and 4th quarters this season.
➤ Lamar Jackson has started five career games in Cleveland and the Ravens are averaging 30.4 PPG – it is the road location Lamar has started the most games at in his career.
Lamar is 35-17 SU on the road as a starter – when he starts the 2nd game or later of a road trip for the Ravens, he is just 5-6 SU, including losing three times outright as a favorite.
➤ Browns faced the Jets last week in New York and the Jets don’t exactly get you prepared for your next opponent well. Teams after playing the Jets are 0-8 ATS this season, including 18-38 ATS over the last four seasons — the worst mark in the NFL by far.
➤ The Browns are 11-22 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 162 head coaches since 2003 to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable ATS.
Against AFC North opponents who are under .500 SU on the season, Browns are 2-10 ATS under Stefanski, including 0-6 ATS when under .500.
➤ Even after scoring 20 pts last week, the Browns are still just 10-19 to their team total under since the start of last season, including going 4-8 to their team total over at home in that span..
A big difference from 2023, where they went 12-5 to their team total over, which was the best mark in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the Browns are 0-4 SU/ATS in their next game directly after scoring 20 pts or more, failing to cover the spread by over 9 PPG and allowing all four opponents to score 27 pts or more.
➤ The Ravens next three opponents are the Browns, Jets and Bengals before they get the Steelers again in a showdown for the top of the division.
In Lamar Jackson’s career, he is 21-5 SU vs. Cleveland, Jets and Cincinnati – if they go 3-0, Baltimore will be 7-5. Ravens are -220 to win the AFC North as of now.
➤ Ravens can go under their win total with a loss this week. Baltimore started the season 2-5 SU and needed to go 10-0 in their final ten games to clinch the over on their win total,
Baltimore has won 3 in a row and 2 straight since the 2-5 start … 7 wins left.
➤ Browns will most likely go back to their role with under 50% of tickets this week after finishing as the public side vs. Jets last week for the first time in 17 games.
Cleveland hasn’t covered as the public side since Week 2 of 2024.
➤ Ravens are 6-3 to the over this year, but since the start of last season, they are 20-8 to the over as well, 18-7 to the over with Lamar Jackson.
In the Browns last four meetings against Lamar, the over is 4-0.
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➤ Patrick Mahomes has started 19 career games in the opposing teams stadium, he is amazingly 18-1 SU with his only loss coming in Denver back in 2023.
When Mahomes faces an AFC West opponent off any extended prep time, KC is 11-1 SU, losing to the Raiders on Christmas of 2023, including 5-0 SU in road/neutral games.
Between 2019 and 2024, Andy Reid and Mahomes went 30-5 SU on any extended prep time. This season, KC is just 1-2 SU in those games and they are 1-3 SU in their last four such games dating back to the Super Bowl.
Reid and Mahomes are 34-10 SU when on any extended prep times as a duo during the season (not counting Week 1), of those 44 total games, they have faced an opponent with a better record just six times – KC is 3-3 SU in those games.
➤ Chiefs are about 3.5-point favorites on the road in Denver, with the Broncos currently holding a 7-game SU win streak.
Last 20 years, 43 teams have been an underdog on a 7+ game SU win streak – they are almost an even 21-22-1 ATS. We’ve only seen nine close as underdogs on the spread at home (5-4 ATS) and the last came in 2022 with the Vikings at home vs. Cowboys.
Since the beginning of 2020 season, we’ve only seen this happen twice in the regular season:
November 2022, Vikings +2.5 vs. DAL (L, 40-3)
January 2020-21, Chiefs +7 vs. LAC (L, 38-21) (Mahomes sat)
➤ The Broncos have trailed in all ten games to start the season and are 8-2 SU and .500 ATS at 4-4-1.
Here are the teams to start 8-2 SU or better while trailing in each of their first ten games since division realignment in 2002:
2025 Broncos
2024 Chiefs
2022 Vikings
Denver has only scored first once in their ten total games.
➤ The under continues to cash in Bo Nix starts — it’s now 9-3 over his last 12 games, all since the calendar flipped to 2025, the best mark to the under of any QB in the NFL. Nix’s betting profile has completely flipped otherwise: after going 8-0 ATS as a favorite last season, he’s just 2-5 ATS in that role this year, the worst record of any QB.
➤ The Broncos defense has been legendary in the first ten games when it comes to disrupting opposing offenses.
Defenses with 40+ sacks and under 30% 3rd down conversion pct through ten games since 1990:
• 2025 Broncos
• 2000 Bucs
➤ Broncos have been good in the red zone this season, but lately it’s been an issue for Denver, going 1-4 in the red zone over their last two games.
When Payton’s teams have converted just one red zone trip or fewer into TDs in consecutive games, his teams go 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS in that third game after the two-game slump, he is 7-0 SU/ATS in the last decade in this spot, including 2-0 SU/ATS with the Broncos.
➤ After facing the Raiders, Denver hasn’t won a game by double-digits since September of 2013. It seems to always be tight and close after tight battles with the Raiders. Since 2017, Broncos are 3-10 ATS the game after facing the Raiders.
➤ Dan Campbell is 10-0 SU as a favorite in primetime during the regular season, with all ten starts coming with Jared Goff.
Goff and Campbell have dominated in night games as a duo. In the regular season, Goff and Campbell are 13-3 SU – all 3 of Detroit’s losses in this spot have came as underdogs.
Best win pct in prime time – QB-coach duos since 1970
Peyton Manning & Jim Caldwell – .900
Jared Goff & Dan Campbell – .813
Steve Young & Steve Mariucci – .800
(Min. 10 starts)
➤ Goff has made 40 starts at night in primetime in his pro career. He is 22-5 SU as a favorite and 4-9 SU as an underdog.
In night games, Goff is 12-3 ATS indoors and 14-11 ATS when starting outdoors. In outdoor primetime games, Goff is 10-4 SU as a favorite and 4-7 SU as a underdog.
Overall with the Lions, Goff is 15-9 ATS in outdoor games. When Goff was with the Rams, he was 15-24-1 ATS in outdoor games.
➤ Eagles are coming off a Monday Night Football game before facing the Lions this week at night again.
Since 2022, we’ve seen 16 teams play a game on short rest in primetime after playing in primetime the week before – they went 5-11 SU/ATS, with the under also 11-5 in those games.
➤ After last week vs. the Packers, Nick Sirianni is now 7-1 SU off a full bye week. The bye impact usually continues for Philly, as they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their game after coming off the bye, winning by 17.6 PPG.
➤ When Jared Goff and Dan Campbell open as an underdog against any opponent, they are 28-12 ATS (70%) as a duo. When they actually end up closing as the dog after opening as so, 22-10 ATS.
➤ What Dan Campbell and the Lions have accomplished against the spread is historic. But in my opinion, what they are doing after winning is remarkable. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 24-8 ATS in their next game after a 6+ pt win and they are 21-7 ATS after a 7+ pt win.
➤ Campbell has faced the Eagles and Nick Sirianni twice with the Lions and Detroit is 0-2 SU, allowing Philly to score 82 total points in the two games.
Campbell is only 0-3 SU or worse vs. one coach and that’s Pete Carroll.
➤ Since 2020, Jared Goff has started nine games where his team was playing outdoors, with their last game outdoors as well. The Lions and Rams, they are a combined 3-6 ATS in those nine games.
➤ The Lions went off in their last game, scoring 44 points and blowing out the Commanders. Under Dan Campbell and Jared Goff, Detroit is 14-3 ATS in their next game after scoring 35 pts or more, including 10-2 ATS when playing that game on the road.
➤ In night games, Hurts is 11-5 SU when playing at home or neutral site and just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road.
➤ Welcome back. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, as a favorite on Monday Night Football … again. Last week, Cowboys lost at home outright to the Cardinals.
Overall in his career, Dak Prescott has dominated night games. He is 29-16-1 SU and 26-19-1 ATS, including 14-8 ATS since 2021. Dak is 18-12-1 ATS as a favorite in night games, including an impressive 25-6 SU.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Dak and the Cowboys are 13-1 SU as a favorite at night.
Dak has started eight MNF games now in his career, Dallas is 6-2 SU/ATS in those games, including 4-0 SU/ATS when they play MNF on the road, covering the spread by 9 PPG.
➤ Finding Brock Bowers helps the Raiders win and score more points. When he is targeted 7+ times, Raiders have scored 123 pts in 6 games since Dec. 1 of last year, 20.5 PPG. When he either doesn’t play or is targeted fewer than 7 times, Raiders have scored 103 pts in 8 games and average just 12.9 PPG, scoring fewer than 14 pts five times.
➤ Raiders have now lost three straight outright and are on some extended rest before this Monday night game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Denver last week.
Rest helps covering. Teams on a 3+ game SU losing streak, who are on extended rest, cover 56% of games since 2003, they are above .500 ATS in 5 of the last 6 years.
➤ Looks like Pete Carroll’s streak will come to an end. In total, this will be Carroll’s 19th season as a head coach in the NFL, he has won at least 7 games in 17 consecutive seasons in the NFL and in his 27 total coaching seasons in NFL and college, he has won 7 games or more in 25 of those seasons.
➤ Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Geno Smith has started six games in primetime, his teams are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, after the cover vs. Broncos last week.
Overall in primetime throughout his career, Geno is 4-14 SU, including 2-13 SU as an underdog and 2-1 SU as a favorite in those games.
Of 138 QBs to make a primetime start since Geno’s first in 2013, he is the 4th-worst on the moneyline.
➤ Raiders were at night in primetime last week and lost outright as underdogs. They are in primetime again as underdogs this week. Teams in that spot are 7-46 SU (13%) over the last 20 years, including 2-21 SU when they are at home.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: A divisional matchup this good, fade the favorite has been the play.
Matches: LAR
System: We've reached the later portion of the regular season. Time to look at some divisional unders.
Matches: MIN/CHI, PIT/CIN, ARI/SF, LAR/SEA
System: Beware of good teams with negative point differentials on the season.
Matches: CHI, JAC, PIT, SF
System: Bills had a terrible loss on the road in Miami last week. Time for a bounce back.
Matches: BUF
System: Never easy to tell someone to bet the Jets.
Matches: NE
