NFL Week 13 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Six weeks to go in the regular season and we still have 25 teams’ win totals left to be decided across the league … lot of games to play!
Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 13 of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Dec. 4, 12 p.m. ET.
1. Back On Top!
For the first time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs are now the favorites to win the Super Bowl over the Bills and as of about 10 days ago, Patrick Mahomes is the -140 favorite to win the NFL MVP.
2. Odds On New York
The New York Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010. Their 11-year drought is the longest in the NFL. Entering this season, New York was +650 to make the playoffs. The Jets are now -115.
3. The Perfect Spot
Here we are again, with the Titans as decently sized underdogs. Mike Vrabel is 22-17 on the moneyline as an underdog. A $100 bettor would be up $2,615.
As an underdog of more than a field goal, Vrabel is 16-10 straight up.
4. Prime time Struggles
- Andy Dalton has struggled in his career in prime time. He is 6-20 SU and 9-17 ATS. His 9-17 ATS mark makes him the second-least profitable QB ATS at night over the last 20 years (ahead of just Carson Palmer).
- Tom Brady is 25-24-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 3-7-1 ATS this season. This is Brady’s worst ATS start to a season since starting 3-8 ATS in 2002.
|Josh Allen, BUF|
|Mac Jones, NE|
+ Josh Allen at night: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS
- On Thursdays: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS (only ATS loss this Thanksgiving)
- On TNF: 2-0 SU/ATS
+ Bills road games are 6-0 to the under in 2022, going under the total by 9.3 PPG.
+ Bills have lost both road games vs. AFC East this season (0-2 SU/ATS).
+ Bills have beaten the Patriots in two consecutive games games in Foxboro; last time Buffalo won three straight on the road in New England? 1992-1994.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 47-27-3 (64%) against the second half spread. Scared to ride Buffalo after it leads at the half? Don’t. The Bills are 29-15-1 (66%) against the second half spread when leading at the half.
+ Allen is tied for NFL lead in interceptions with 11. Allen was 25-1 to lead NFL in interceptions before the season.
+ Bills haven’t punted in their last two games vs. Patriots.
+ Both teams off playing on Thanksgiving/even rest.
+ Belichick on Thursday with Patriots: 14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
+ Belichick vs. Bills with Patriots: 36-9 SU, 26-17-2 ATS (including 4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS against Allen)
+ Belichick is 37-11 SU, 40-7-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season.
+ Patriots allowed 33 pts vs. Vikings on Thanksgiving. Over the last 20 years, the Patriots are 39-9 SU, 36-12 ATS after allowing 30 pts or more in their previous game.
+ Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks with 13, he was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
+ Belichick as home underdog: 10-9 SU, 13-6 ATS with Patriots.
- Between 2000-02, he was home dog 10 times.
- Between 2003-13, he was home dog once (between 2003-2019: three times)
- Between 2020-22, he has been a home dog six times.
+ Most Profitable QB ATS vs. Belichick Last 20 Years
- Eli Manning 5-0 ATS
- Geno Smith 4-0 ATS
- Tua Tagovailoa 4-0 ATS
- Josh Allen 5-2-1 ATS
+ Belichick at night over the last 20 years: 63-30 SU, 50-40-3 ATS
+ Since losing to the Bears at home, the Patriots have allowed six total points in their last two home games vs. the Jets and Colts.
+ Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
- Under 40: 35-12-1 ATS (74.5%)
- Under 42: 53-25-2 ATS (67%)
- Under 45: 93-55-5 ATS (63%)
- 45+: 110-87-5 ATS (55.8%)
|Mike White, Jets|
|Kirk Cousins, MIN|
+ Jets road ATS success. New York is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Between 2015-21, the Jets were 17-34-3 ATS on the road, under .500 ATS all seven seasons (worst in the NFL).
+ After facing the Patriots, the Vikings have time to prep for Jets … that helps. Last 20 years, teams with 10+ days to prep after facing Patriots are 28-19 ATS, with less than 10 days, 117-134-5 ATS.
+ Mike White gets his fifth career start this week for the Jets. New York has averaged 28 PPG in White’s four starts.
+ Jets are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 7-4 SU, a $100 bettor up $916.
+ Jets are 9-2 against the first half spread, tied with the Titans for the best 1H win pct in the NFL this season.
+ 11: Years since the Jets have made the playoffs, longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, -115 now.
+ Vikings can go over their preseason win total (9.5) with a win over the Jets.
+ In his NFL career, Kirk Cousins has played on the third game or later of a homestand just twice (both with the Vikings). He’s 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS.
This will be just the fifth time as a Viking Cousins will face a “low scoring” team (averaging less than 20 PPG scoring and allowing). Minnesota is 2-2 SU, but 0-4 ATS.
+ Cousins with Vikings: 37-37-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
- 1 p.m. ET or earlier: 46-34-2 ATS
- 4 p.m. ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ Cousins is 27-37-2 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 16-29-2 ATS after a SU since 2017, least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
+ Vikings are 9-2 SU, but just 5-5-1 ATS this season.
In December or later, it has been profitable to back good teams (66%+ win pct), who have struggled to cover the spread (50% or less ATS win pct), going 101-74-3 ATS (58%) last 20 years.
+ Justin Jefferson is currently the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +225 odds, he opened at +1200 odds in the preseason.
|Russell Wilson, DEN|
|Lamar, Jackson, BAL|
+ Russell Wilson is 23-14-2 ATS in his career in EST.
+ Broncos have had leads of 10-0 three different times this season. They’re now 0-3 in those games.
+ Seven straight Broncos games have gone under the total. Ten of Denver’s last 11 games have gone under the total this season, the most profitable team to the under this season.
Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 22-6 (79%) in Broncos games, the best % in the NFL.
+ Broncos went under their preseason win total (10) with a loss last week.
+ Broncos have scored 14 total TDs this season, fewest in the NFL.
+ The Broncos currently rank last in scoring and third in points allowed. That’s virtually unprecedented in the 32-team era. In fact, the last NFL team to finish with the fewest points scored and fewest points allowed was the 1946 Steelers.
+ Wilson is 33-19-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 3-2 ATS as an underdog with the Broncos. Wilson is 13-6-2 ATS as an underdog when the total is below 45.
+ Above a TD underdog, Russell Wilson is 4-0 ATS
+ Biggest Russell Wilson Underdog
- +10: 2018 at Rams (L, 36-31)
- +9.5: 2022 at Ravens
- +7.5: 2018 vs. Rams (L, 33-31)
- +7.5: 2016 at Patriots (W, 31-24)
- +7.5: 2012 at 49ers (L, 13-6)
+ Lamar Jackson: 13-19 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road
+ Jackson as 7-point favorite or higher: 22-4 SU, 12-14 ATS
+ Jackson is just 5-9 ATS after a SU loss, including 2-7 ATS when that game is at home.
+ Jackson is 38-24-2 against the first half spread with the Ravens, the fourth-most profitable QB against the first half spread since 2005. He’s just 4-6-1 1H ATS this season.
+ Jackson vs. teams below .500 SU: 23-4 SU, 13-14 ATS (lost vs. Jaguars last week)
+ Ravens haven’t won and covered a home game since November of last season (8 games).
|Kenny Pickett, PIT|
|Marcus Mariota, ATL|
+ Teams after facing the Colts this season are 10-1-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Tomlin on short rest: 21-19-1 SU, 18-20-3 ATS
- As favorite: 16-8-1 SU, 10-14-1 ATS
- As underdog: 5-11 SU, 8-6-2 ATS
+ Tomlin is 40-17-1 ATS (70%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward in the regular season.
- Kenny Pickett has been listed as a favorite once as a starter, closing -1 at home vs. the Saints, a 20-10 Steelers win.
- Steelers are just 4-8-1 ATS after a SU win over the last two seasons.
+ December has been a tough month in Pittsburgh. Steelers are 8-16 ATS in December since 2017, the least profitable team ATS in December in that span.
+ Steelers are 10-1-1 SU in their last 12 games vs. Falcons.
+ Marcus Mariota is 25-35-2 ATS playing outdoors in his career. Indoors he is 8-5 ATS.
- Mariota is 4-2 ATS at home with the Falcons, but was just 12-15-2 ATS at home with the Titans.
+ After starting 6-0 ATS, Falcons are just 1-5 ATS since.
+ 6-0 ATS teams last decade perform after hot start…
- 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 1-5 ATS
- 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
- 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS
+ Mariota has faced Tomlin once, a 40-17 loss in 2017 as a 7-point underdog.
|Ryan Tannehill, TEN|
|Jalen Hurts, PHI|
+ Titans are 24-15 ATS as an underdog under Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel as dog on ML: 22-17 SU. $100 bettor up $2,615 (67% ROI) — best in NFL since first year as head coach,
Titans are 21-7 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more under Vrabel.
+ Titans are 8-3 ATS this season. Their best ATS start through 11 games since starting 9-2 ATS in 2008.
+ Titans are 9-2 against the first half spread, tied with the Jets for the best 1H win pct in the NFL this season.
+ Vrabel and Tannehill are 11-5-1 ATS after a SU loss as a duo. Vrabel was 1-2 ATS in this spot with Marcus Mariota.
+ The under has cashed in seven of the last eight Titans games. Only over was Titans/Packers by 3.5 points.
+ Eagles can go over their preseason win total (10) with a win this week.
Previous six times Eagles had a double-digit win total, they went under (2019, 2018, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2005)
Last over on a double-digit win total for Eagles? 2004, they went to and lost the Super Bowl.
+ In the Eagles last 11 home games, the over is 10-1, going over the total by 8.8 PPG (over in 5 straight games).
+ Eagles are 5-1 ATS at home this year (12-5-1 ATS last 18 home games).
+ Jalen Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.
- Home: 10-4-1 ATS
- Road: 5-11 ATS — He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.
+ This will be the third time Hurts plays on a homestand (second straight home game or later) and he is 2-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 11.8 PPG.
|Trevor Lawrence, JAC|
|Jared Goff, DET|
+ First time Trevor Lawrence will face a team on a 4+ game ATS winning streak.
Lawrence vs. teams after an ATS win: 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS.
+ Since 2016, teams facing the Jaguars on 10+ days rest are 15-4 SU and 11-6-2 ATS.
+ The Jaguars are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games.
+ Teams after facing the Ravens this season are 9-1-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Trevor Lawrence is 7-21 SU, 9-19 ATS in his career.
+ Jaguars are 3-21 SU when allowing 14 pts or more under Trevor Lawrence.
+ Jaguars after a SU win under Trevor Lawrence: 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS
Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-10 ATS after a SU win
+ The Jaguars are 0-6 straight up as favorites since 2020, failing to cover the spread by 14.8 PPG (lost seven straight games SU as favorites)
+ The Jaguars have lost 19 consecutive games SU vs. the NFC dating back to 2018 (2-17 ATS).
+ Since 2012, the Jags are 4-40 SU vs. the NFC (8-36 ATS).
+ Since 2009, the Jags are 3-10 SU, 2-11 ATS as favorites vs. the NFC.
+ Lions after Thanksgiving since 2005:
- Won two straight SU/ATS
- 4-13 SU week after Thanksgiving since 2005.
+ Lions have covered the spread in four consecutive games. They haven’t covered five straight games since 2018.
+ Lions are 4-1 ATS on 10+ days rest last three seasons; lost 24-6 at Cowboys on 10+ days rest this season under Dan Campbell.
- Jared Goff is 24-13 ATS (65%) in these early kickoffs at 1pm Eastern or earlier, versus 26-29-2 ATS (47%) in all other games.
+ If Lions close as favorites: second time as favorites this season (at home vs. Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites; lost 48-45).
Detroit hadn’t been listed as a favorite in 26 games entering their game vs. SEA, a record in the Super Bowl era. The last time Detroit was favorites prior? Nov. 22, 2020 against the Carolina Panthers.
Lions haven’t covered as a favorite since November 15, 2020 against Washington.
|Taylor Heinicke, WAS|
|Daniel Jones, NYG|
+ Taylor Heinicke is rolling lately:
- 11-2-1 ATS last 14 starts
- 7-0-1 ATS last 8 starts
+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 8-1 to the under, with their only game going over eclipsing the total by just 2.5 points.
+ Commanders are 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
+ No letdown in Ron Rivera. 52-42-2 ATS after SU win. 12-6-1 ATS with Washington.
In November or later after SU win, he’s 36-25-2 ATS (59%)
+ Commanders can go over their preseason win total (7.5) with a win over the Giants.
+ Late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 234-154-8 (60%) since 2003 (Game 10 or later, totals under 40, divisional game, 1 p.m. ET game).
+ Most Profitable Commanders QBs ATS Last 20 Years:
- 1. Alex Smith: 11-4 ATS (+674)
- 2. Taylor Heinicke: 13-8-1 ATS (+392)
- 3. Rex Grossman: 10-6 ATS (+356)
+ Giants have a 60%+ win and cover pct this season. Those such teams to lose two or more straight games are just 3-8 ATS since 2019.
+ Daniel Jones is 0-2 ATS in his next start after facing the Cowboys in Dallas.
+ Giants home unders are 16-2 in their last 18 games.
+ Daniel Jones home unders are 18-7.
+ Two straight Giants games have gone over the total for the first time since Week 4 and 5 last season. Three straight Giants games haven’t gone over the total since Weeks 15-16 of the 2019 season.
+ Daniel Jones is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS on extended rest in his NFL career.
+ Giants can go over their preseason win total with a win over the Commanders.
Giants have gone under their win total in five straight years and eight of last nine, including 9-1-1 since 2011. The streak of five is longest active streak for O or U.
+ The under is 31-12-1 (72.1%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.
+ Giants are 8-3 ATS this season. Their best ATS start through 11 games since starting 9-2 ATS in 2008.
|Deshaun Watson, CLE|
|Kyle Allen, HOU|
+ Deshaun Watson starts for the Browns this week.
- 29-27 SU, 26-28-2 ATS career
- First start since Jan 3, 2021 for Texans
- Even with a subpar Texans team, Watson was 14-7 SU vs. under .500 SU teams with Houston.
+ Watson is only 9-15-2 (38%) ATS as a favorite, and -7 would tie his biggest ever spread as a road favorite.
+ Browns have lost seven of their last eight road games SU. They are 3-9 SU on the road over the last two seasons.
+ How Browns performed under Jacoby Brissett: 4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)
+ In 11 games with Jacoby Brissett, Browns produced NFL’s fifth-ranked offense (EPA per drive). Behind only: Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in one-score games more to blame for 4-7 record.
+ Browns beat the Bucs in Week 11. Cleveland is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS under Kevin Stefanski in their last eight games after a SU win.
+ Kevin Stefanski with Browns
- Favorite: 17-8 SU, 8-17 ATS
- Dog: 6-14 SU, 11-8-1 ATS
+ Texans were 14-pt underdogs vs. the Dolphins last week. Since 2015, teams listed as a 14-pt underdog or higher in their previous game are 34-22 (60.7%) against the first half spread in their next game.
+ Texans are 1-20 SU vs. non-divisional opponents since December of 2020 (only win vs. Chargers).
+ Texans are 9-34-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.
+ Texans are 5-19-1 SU in its last 25 games at home since 2019. Texans have just one win at home in their last 13 home games (1-11-1 SU).
+ The Texans have lost 6 straight games SU. Each of those 6 losses have been by 7 pts or more.
+ Home underdogs of a TD or more are 7-0 ATS this season.
|Aaron Rodgers, GB|
|Justin Fields, CHI|
+ Aaron Rodgers is 22-7 ATS, 24-5 straight up versus the Bears (incl. playoffs). Rodgers has won and covered his last seven meetings versus Chicago. In Chicago: 11-3 SU/ATS
+ Rodgers off a loss: 44-26-1 ATS
+ Rodgers is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS vs. Bears after a SU loss.
Rodgers is 12-0 ATS against the Bears after failing to cover the spread in their previous game.
Rodgers is a perfect 16-0 ATS against the Bears when Green Bay’s last game before playing Chicago is a win by 10 or anything worse, and the Packers are covering by 9.6 points per game.
+ Rodgers is 2-9-1 against the second half spread this season, the least profitable QB against the second half spread in the NFL. He’s 3-13-1 2H ATS in his last 17 games overall.
+ Packers are 4-8 ATS this season through 12 games, their worst ATS start to the season since 2000 (also 4-8 ATS start).
+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they are +1200 now.
+ Packers are 300-1 to win the Super Bowl entering Week 13, Green Bay’s longest odds to win it all since Week 15 of 2018, when they were 300-1 and lost to the Bears to fall to 5-8-1 SU.
+ Bears are 2-10 against the first half spread this season (T-worst in the NFL).
+ Six straight Bears games have gone over the total, including seven of their last eight. Bears are 8-4 to the over this season, best in the NFL.
+ Bears have lost five consecutive games SU.
+ Over the last two seasons, the Bears are 4-19 SU as underdogs, the least profitable team on ML as dogs in the NFL (-$900).
+ Bears lost by 20+ points back in Week 12. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 72-49-1 ATS in their next game, including 54-30-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
+ Most rushing yards in the NFL this season? Chicago Bears with 2,304.
|Geno Smith, SEA|
|Bryce Perkins, LAR|
+ Geno Smith is 11-5 ATS in his last 16 starts dating back to 2016.
+ Kenneth Walker is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at -190, he opened the year at 25-1 odds.
+ Teams after facing the Raiders this season are 1-10 SU in their next game. After facing Raiders in Vegas (since 2020) — 17-27 SU, 15-29 ATS (worst in NFL)
+ Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-8 ATS after allowing 30+ points at home in their previous game.
+ Pete Carroll is 4-7 ATS vs. Sean McVay in his coaching career. McVay is his second-least profitable coaching opponent ATS ahead of just Jeff Fisher.
Carroll is 1-6 ATS vs. McVay and Rams since 2019
+ Geno Smith is 25-18-2 ATS in his career. In his 45 starts, he’s never closed as a 7-pt favorite or higher:
- Geno Smith hasn’t lost three straight games ATS since 2014.
- In his career, Smith is 10-4 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
+ Rams were 16.5-pt underdogs vs. the Chiefs last week. Since 2015, teams listed as a 14-pt underdog or higher in their previous game are 34-22 (60.7%) against the first half spread in their next game.
+ Rams are 3-7-1 ATS to open the season, worst ATS start for defending Super Bowl champ since Philadelphia Eagles started 3-8 ATS in 2018. Rams are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games dating back to last season.
+ Rams are failing to cover the spread by 7.5 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.
+ The Rams are 0-5 against teams above .500, losing by 16.2 points per game and failing to cover this line in any of them
+ This is just the third game the Rams will play vs. team above .500 SU this season, they are 0-2 SU, losing by 14 PPG.
+ The Rams have lost five consecutive games SU, the longest losing streak under Sean McVay.
+ Rams are 3-8 SU this season. A $100 bettor would be down $705 betting L.A., the least profitable team on the moneyline this season.
+ Rams Super Bowl odds since Week 7: 20-1, 25-1, 40-1, 50-1, 80-1, 500-1 now
|Tua Tagovailoa, MIA|
|Jimmy Garoppolo, SF|
+ Dolphins are down to +1200 to win the Super Bowl, the sixth-shortest odds in the field. For Miami, it’s the shortest odds to win it all since at least 2008.
+ Dolphins are 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
+ Tua Tagovailoa is 9-4-1 (69%) ATS as an underdog in his career. And this season, underdogs by more than a field goal in games with a total of 47 or less are 51-26 (66%) ATS.
+ Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-4 ATS at home and 6-7-1 ATS away from home in his career.
+ Tagovailoa has faced four teams allowing 17 PPG or less as a starter, he’s 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS
+ Tagovailoa vs. the NFC: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
+ The 8-3 Dolphins are listed as an underdog against the 49ers this week. In the last 20 years, teams with a 70%+ win pct who are listed as underdogs in December or later in the regular season are 48-65-3 ATS (42.5%), including 14-22-1 ATS since 2016.
+ Dolphins are 5-1 to the under at home this season and 4-1 to the over on the road.
+ Tyreek Hill is the second favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +300 right now, he opened at 50-1 (Justin Jefferson is leader at +225).
+ Garoppolo vs. 49ers legends.
First 60 starts w/ 49ers:
- Jimmy Garoppolo: 41-19 SU
- Steve Young: 40-19 SU
- Joe Montana: 37-22 SU
+ The 49ers defense has not given up a point in the last four second halves combined
49ers have outscored their opponents 57-0 in second halves of their last four games.
+ 49ers are down to +600 to win the Super Bowl, their shortest price this season and shortest price for San Francisco during the regular season since Week 17 of the 2019 season.
+ The 49ers are 41-19 straight up and 34-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.
+ 49ers are now 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ pts entering fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan.
+ Jimmy Garoppolo is 10-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, but he’s won five straight starts in that spot.
+ Garoppolo is 9-14-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 25-8 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.
+ Kyle Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
- Favorite: 21-28-1 ATS (5th-worst)
- Underdog: 29-19 ATS (4th-best)
+ Jimmy Garoppolo likes to stay west. In his career, he is 15-3 SU, 12-5-1 ATS when he plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in his previous game as well.
+ 49ers shutout the Saints last week. Since 2005, teams to post a shutout are 55-50-4 1H ATS in their next game.
- When they are a favorite: 41-26-3 1H ATS
- When an underdog: 14-24-1 1H ATS
|Justin Herbert, LAC|
|Derek Carr, LV|
+ Justin Herbert has been intercepted in six straight games, the longest streak of his career.
+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is.
- Under 50: 11-4 to over
- 50 or more: 8-5 to under
+ Herbert career: 21-22 SU, 23-20 ATS.
+ Herbert by time zone:
- EST/CST: 11-4 ATS
- MST/PST: 12-16 ATS
+ Herbert 2H in 2022: 3-8 ATS
+ Herbert 2H ATS career: 12-29-2 — least profitable QB in spot since drafted.
3-12-1 2H ATS vs. AFC West, including 0-5 2H ATS vs. Raiders.
+ Chargers are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on road this season (T-best in NFL with Titans).
+ Derek Carr is 25-33 ATS after a SU win in his career.
+ Overs are 14-6-1 (70%) at Allegiant Stadium, making the Raiders the second-most profitable home team to the over since they moved to Vegas in 2020.
+ Both the Chargers and Raiders allow 25+ PPG this season. Since 2019, when both teams allow 25+ PPG in December or later, the over is 18-9-1, going over the total by 5.2 PPG.
+ Last three Chargers-Raiders games have gone over the total, scoring 50, 57 and 67 points in the three games. AFC West teams in Vegas, the over is 5-2.
+ Disadvantage to traveling to Seattle? Teams the week after a road game in Seattle are 28-16-1 ATS since 2017, including 12-1 ATS over the last two seasons.
|Patrick Mahomes, KC|
|Joe Burrow, CIN|
+ Chiefs are now the favorites to win the Super Bowl over the Bills for the first time this season.
+ Chiefs have won five consecutive games SU. Last time Mahomes played a game on a 5+ game winning streak? Last year vs. Bengals, a 34-31 loss in Cincinnati.
Mahomes on 5+ game win streak: 12-2 SU, 8-5-1 ATS
+ The Chiefs have now won their last six games in which they trailed at halftime. That’s the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won seven straight from 1989-90.
+ Patrick Mahomes (-140) is now the favorite to win MVP ahead of Jalen Hurts (+325).
Mahomes MVP odds: opened 8-1, 5-1 Week 4, 4-1 Week 8, 2-1 Week 10, -140 now
+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home
- Home: 21-23-1 ATS
- Road/Neutral: 24-15-1 ATS
+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:
- As favorite of 3.5 or more: 28-33-1 ATS
- As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-5-1 ATS
+ Mahomes is just 1-7 ATS this season after a SU win and 15-22 ATS after a win since 2020.
+ Mahomes in November and December in his career: 32-4 SU, 17-17-2 ATS
Mahomes has won 26 consecutive games SU in November and December
+ Chiefs are 5-1 to the under at home this season and 4-1 to the over on the road.
+ Joe Burrow is 3-4 SU, 4-3 as a home underdog in his career.
- 0-3 SU/ATS as a home dog of under a FG
- 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS as a home dog of a FG or more
+ Burrow career: 22-18-1 SU, 27-14 ATS (+$1,072). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow is 15-3 ATS in his last 18 starts.
+ Bengals are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons (22-10 ATS).
+ Bengals have won and covered three straight games — the first time they’ve done that this season.
+ Burrow has faced an opposing offense averaging above 24 PPG 15 times with the Bengals and Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS, covering seven in a row dating back to last season.
+ In the 2022 calendar year, Bengals are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Chiefs
+ Burrow is 15-4 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the sixth-most profitable QB ATS vs. above .500 teams, behind Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning.
+ Bengals are 18-1 to win the Super Bowl, their shortest odds to win it all this season.
|Matt Ryan, IND|
|Dak Prescott, DAL|
+ Matt Ryan and Colts are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week. Ryan is 20-8 ATS in his career on short rest, including a 12-9 road win in Denver with the Colts this season.
In the last 20 years, Ryan is the second-most profitable QB ATS on short rest behind just Phillip Rivers.
+ Colts are 2-10 against the first half spread this season and are 2-12 in their last 14 first halves ATS dating back to last year.
In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-3 2H ATS, including covering vs. the Steelers last week.
+ Colts are 9-3 to the under this season and have gone under in 14 of the last 17 games.
+ In the first half, the under is 10-2 in the Colts 12 games this season, second-best first half under win pct this season.
+ Ryan hasn’t had a lot of success vs. good teams. He is 6-11-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU since 2020, second-least profitable QB in the NFL ahead of just Matthew Stafford.
He’s 3-7-1 ATS in his last 11 starts vs. above .500 SU teams
+ In December or later, Matt Ryan has faced a defense allowing less than 20 PPG 20 times, he is 7-13 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in those games
+ Cowboys after Thanksgiving.
- Won six of last eight games SU.
- At home after Thanksgiving over the last 20 years: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS
+ Dak Prescott at home in prime time: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS
When listed as a favorite: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
+ Cowboys are 9-14 ATS at home in prime time when they are above .500 SU, the third-worst team ATS in that spot over the last 20 years.
+ December home overs have cashed in five straight games for Cowboys and is 6-1 since 2018.
+ Dak Prescott as a 7-pt favorite or greater: 17-3 SU, 13-6-1 ATS
In December or later: 5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
+ Dak Prescott is 51-42-2 ATS (54.8%) in his career.
23-9-2 ATS (71.9%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
- +$1,284 – second to Brady since 2005 ($3,109)
15-24 ATS (39%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
- -$982 – 111th of 112 QBs since he was drafted in 2016
+ Prescott on extended rest (eight days or more), including season opener: 11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS
Since he was drafted in 2016, Prescott is second-best QB ATS on extended rest, behind just Tom Brady.
+ Cowboys have 10 days rest, Colts are on just six days rest. Teams with more than a full week rest are just 46-61-1 ATS vs. teams with less than a full week rest over the last 20 years.
|Andy Dalton, NO|
|Tom Brady, TB|
+ Saints have failed to cover the spread in five straight road games — the first time they’ve done that as a franchise since failing to cover six in a row on the road back in 2013.
+ Andy Dalton has lost his last 10 starts SU vs. teams allowing fewer than 20 PPG (3-7 ATS). Since 2016, Dalton is 5-19 SU vs. teams allowing fewer than 20 PPG.
+ Teams after facing the 49ers this season are 1-9-1 SU in their next game.
+ Saints can go under their preseason win total (9) with a loss vs. Buccaneers.
Saints haven’t gone under their preseason win total since 2015 (4-0-2 to over since then)
+ Andy Dalton has struggled in his career in prime time. He is 6-20 SU and 9-17 ATS. His 9-17 ATS mark makes him the second-least profitable QB ATS at night over the last 20 years (Carson Palmer).
Dalton on MNF: 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS (lost 6 straight games on MNF SU)
+ Saints were shutout last week against the 49ers.
- Teams to score 6 pts or less are 10-2 1H ATS this season in their next game and 106-73-7 1H ATS (59%) since 2014.
- Teams after being shutout are just 51-51-3 1H ATS in next game, 27-12 ATS on the road and 24-38-3 ATS when playing at home.
- Seven teams in the last decade have been shutout on the road and then played on the road again. They are 6-1 against 1H spread.
- Teams after being shutout are 26-11-3 ATS (70%) since 2015.
+ Saints are 300-1 to win the Super Bowl, their longest odds of the season. They opened at 40-1 to win it all.
+ Tom Brady on Monday Night Football: 19-8 SU, 15-11-1 ATS
+ Brady in his last 16 games at night: 7-9 SU, 2-14 ATS
+ Brady has faced the Saints in prime time three times: 0-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 26.2 PPG.
Brady is 1-4 SU/ATS vs. Saints in the regular season while with the Buccaneers
+ Over the last 20 years, Brady is 35-20-4 ATS on extended rest in the regular season
+ Brady on extended rest (8+ days) with Bucs: 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS
+ In his career, Tom Brady-led teams are 16-3-2 to the over on their preseason win total (14-3-2 NE, 2-0 TB). The Bucs are one loss away from going under their win total (11) this season – the first time Brady has gone under his teams preseason win total since 2009 (his teams win total is 10-0-2 to over since 2009).
+ Bucs team total unders are 10-1 this season.
+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Bucs with just 803 yards.
+ Brady is 25-24-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 3-7-1 ATS this season.
Brady’s worst ATS start to a season since starting 3-8 ATS in 2002.
+ In the first half, the under is 10-1 in the Buccaneers 11 games this season, best 1h under win pct this season.
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Week 13 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 13; not including Thursday Night Football)
|73% of bets at Eagles|
|69% of bets at 49ers|
|69% of bets vs. Jaguars|
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 13
(The most popular bet games for Week 13; not including Thursday Night Football)
|55,000 betting tickets|
|50,000 betting tickets|
|48,000 betting tickets|
Biggest Line Moves in Week 13
Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines; not including Thursday Night Football):
|8-pt move vs. Colts|
|8-pt move vs. Broncos|
|4-pt move at Rams|
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Week 13 picks -> PRO Access
Top Props for Week 12: D.J. Chark, Detroit Lions
Bet: Under 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 13, the Dolphins are charging, while the Packers are simply out.
SB: 12-1 (Shortest odds to win it all in 15 years)
SB: 300-1 (Longest odds to win it all since 2018)
Super Bowl Futures: Let’s look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
60%+ – 33-40-2 ATS
66%+ – 18-25-1 ATS
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
NFL Win Total Tracker
Here are your results through 12 weeks:
- Over: Jets, Seahawks, Falcons
- Under: Rams, Packers, Colts, Broncos
So far this season, home underdogs have been cashing for bettors.
Home underdogs against the spread this season:
- All games: 40-28-2 (59%) ATS
- Dogs of 3 or more pts: 28-13-2 (68%) ATS
- Dogs of 7 or more pts: 7-0 ATS
It’s Weather Season!
Games with 10+ MPH winds are 88-57 (60.7%) to the under over the last 2 seasons.
Here are potential matches for Week 13: IND/DAL, GB/CHI, BUF/NE, CLE/HOU
Outdoor divisional unders are 23-10 this season and 59-38 over the last two seasons.
Matches for Week 13: BUF/NE, GB/CHI, WAS/NYG, NO/TB
- The Favorites Podcast: With some tantalizing marquee matchups, this week’s NFL slate is loaded with betting possibilities. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to preview the full board, and give some of their favorite early picks against the spread. The Bengals and Chiefs clash in an AFC showdown, while the 49ers and Dolphins look to silence doubters.
- Action Network Podcast: As the calendar turns to December we start with a Buffalo vs New England matchup on Thursday night. But Action Network hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey go through every game through Sunday night, building their Sunday Six Pack of spread bets to go along with their favorite total, teasers and more. Plus, we hear some sharp criticism of Matt Ryan, praise for the Detroit Lions, and reasons to hammer an under in an AFC West rematch.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.