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NFL Week 15 Survivor Pool Analysis, Percentages & Pick: Rams Offering Prime Value

NFL Week 15 Survivor Pool Analysis, Percentages & Pick: Rams Offering Prime Value article feature image

Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff dives into the end zone.

There are just three weeks remaining in the NFL regular season. To get through 14 weeks of Survivor action is quite an accomplishment, but losing now pays the same as it does in August: zero.

You should have know who you plan to take over these next three weeks, with the caveat being Week 17 could see some teams resting. With only one bye in each conference, it could be less of an issue than in previous seasons.

The most likely teams to rest are the upper-echelon franchises that you have likely already used like the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints or Green Bay Packers.

However, there could be some surprises. Make sure to leave yourself with multiple options in the final week.

Here are the projected win percentages for the final three weeks of play.

And here are the top options and their projected pick percentages and expected value. Note that expected value could be drastically different in your league depending on the number of entries left and what options are still available to your opponents.

Team Pick % Model EV
Rams 24.2% 91.8% 1.19
Steelers 6.8% 88.7% 1.18
Ravens 17.7% 83.8% 1.06
Titans 19.1% 75.0% 0.93
Packers 2.5% 70.6% 0.94
Colts 3.1% 70.1% 0.92

Just like last week, the best chance to move on is to take the team playing the New York Jets. This week, that’s the Los Angeles Rams. Simply put,  take the Rams if you have them available.

If you don’t have the Rams as an option, there are two others with a projected win percentage more than 80 percent in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Steelers are an automatic play, but the Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule and all three games are viable options.

If you have Baltimore as a possibility, you should be using it over the next three weeks, but which one depends on your other options.

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The other plays remaining have a negative expected value, but that’s only because the top options are so much better. If you take a team like the Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts, it’s not a bad play if it’s the best option.

If you have to dip into teams in the 60% range, the Buffalo Bills are a good option to take now because they have games left against divisional opponents and Week 17 could see them locked into the No. 3 seed.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel? The San Francisco 49ers could be your best bet. Nick Mullens on the road isn’t an ideal situation, but they have a 60% chance to win in Dallas and will be big underdogs the next two weeks.

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