NFL Week 3 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Week 1 in the NFL was all about unders, which went 12-4. Week 2 turned out to be an over-fest, with 13 of 16 games going over the total.
Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Welcome to Week 3 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, September 24, 8 a.m. ET.
Back and Forth
Overs or Unders?
In Week 1, unders went 12-4 — the best opening week for unders since 2006. Now, in Week 2, overs went 13-3 — the most overs in a single week in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
Road teams have also had their way. Road teams are 19-13 SU, 19-12-1 ATS. The 19 road wins SU through two weeks is most in Wild Card era.
We Meet Once Again
Mike Vrabel has been listed as an underdog in 45 games entering this week against the Browns.
His 23-22 SU record makes him the only coach above .500 SU as a dog in the last 20 years (min. 20 games coached as an underdog).
The Arizona Cardinals are 0-2 SU. As we all predicted.
But they're 2-0 against the spread.
This week as double-digit home underdogs vs. the Cowboys, they become the first team in the Wild Card era to be a double-digit home dog after starting 2-0 ATS.
Arizona currently has just 11% of the betting tickets this week at home vs. Cowboys. No team has closed with 11% of tickets or fewer since 2008 in any game.
End The Madness
DJ Nap Time
Daniel Jones enters Thursday Night Football 1-11 SU in night games.
Over the last 20 years, 96 QBs have made five-plus starts at night, Jones’ 1-11 SU (8%) win percentage is the lowest among all QBs — next closest with a minimum of 10 starts is Andy Dalton at 6-21 SU (22.2%).
Every NFL Game For Week 3
|Daniel Jones, NYG|
|Brock Purdy, SF|
Get back on track with an inflated number? Winless teams ATS are 20-14-1 ATS on the road when playing on short rest since 2003. Week 3 matches: NYG, NO, CAR
Staying West: Teams who are on a road trip (second road game or more) where the previous game was in MST/PST and the current game is also in MST/PST are 37-27-2 ATS, including 16-9-1 ATS since 2017. The Giants played in Arizona and are now in San Francisco.
Night Games: NFL first half unders are now 77-53-2 (59.2%) in night games since 2021, including 23-11-1 (68%) on TNF in that span.
More on GMEN: The Giants are now 6-1-1 SU and 7-1 ATS off of a straight-up loss under Brian Daboll. The Giants are just 6-4 ATS after a SU win under Daboll.
- Jones' career: 23-33-1 SU, 32-25 ATS
- Home: 13-16 ATS (-$413)
- Road/Neutral: 19-8 ATS (+$870) – No. 2 of 99 QBs since he was drafted behind Jimmy Garoppolo.
- Giants got embarrassed vs. Cowboys in Week 1, 40-0. Jones is 21-11 ATS in his career after a SU loss, including 18-6 ATS over the last four seasons after winning. But he failed to cover the spread in Week 2 at the Cardinals – Jones is the most profitable QB ATS after a loss since 2020.
- After the Week 2 win, Jones is just 10-10 ATS after a SU win in his career.
- Jones has been sacked 10 times this season, T-2nd most in NFL.
- Jones is 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS at night in his career
- Jones has played four Thursday games. He's 0-4 SU, 3-1 ATS.
- Jones has played four night games on short rest, and he's 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS.
- Jones has played 12 games on short rest with the Giants and he's 4-8 SU, but 9-3 ATS – 9-1 ATS on short rest since 2020. Since his first start in 2019, Jones is most profitable QB ATS on short rest.
The 49ers have covered the spread in seven consecutive home games dating back to last season, the longest home cover streak in the NFL (T-with 2011-12 streak of seven for 49ers' longest home cover streak since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970).
- How Shanahan's 49ers team performs early in the season:
- Week 1: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
- Week 2: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS
- Week 3: 2-4 SU/ATS
- Week 4: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS
- 49ers went 7-0 ATS vs. the NFC West last season. After the Rams' late cover in Week 2, the 49ers are 0-1 ATS vs. the NFC West this season.
- After a Shanahan 49ers team faces an NFC West opponent, San Francisco is 22-11-1 ATS in its next game.
- Shanahan in night games with 49ers: 8-11 ATS as favorite | 7-2 ATS as underdog
- He’s coached eight games at night, which have also come on short rest: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
- Dating back to their playoff game in 2022 vs. Packers, Shanahan has covered five straight games ATS on short rest.
- Purdy is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in his career – 9-0 SU in games he finished.
- Third NFL night game. He’s 2-0 SU/ATS
- Third NFL game on short rest. He’s 2-0 SU/ATS.
- College night game at home: 6-0 SU
- Longest win streaks to start career – Starting QBs since 1966
- Roethlisberger, PIT 15
- Livingston, KC 10
- Tomczak, CHI 10
- Purdy, SF 7
- Garoppolo 7
- Culpepper 7
- Dieter Brock, STL 7
- In games McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 14-1 SU, 11-4 ATS.
- McCaffrey has a TD in 11 consecutive games (12 total TDs).
- McCaffrey has scored a TD in 11 straight games (including playoffs). The only 49ers player with a longer streak is Jerry Rice (12). The NFL record is 15 held by John Riggins and O.J. Simpson.
- McCaffrey is currently -320 to score a TD this week It would be the shortest odds of any anytime TD scorer over the past three seasons (via Gilles Gallant).
Thursday home teams are just 20-33 ATS since 2020, including 18-29 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of the week for home teams at night).
|Justin Herbert, LAC|
|Kirk Cousins, MIN|
+ Highest O/U this season at 54.5. Four games have closed 54 or higher since start of last season, under is 4-0.
- After starting 0-2, Herbert is now just 5-5 SU/ATS in Weeks 1-3 in his career.
- Herbert is 15-11 ATS on the road, and only 12-13-1 ATS at home in his career.
- The Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.
- Herbert by time zone:
- EST/CST: 12-6 ATS
- MST/PST: 15-18-1 ATS
- Herbert has played six career games on a “road trip” (second straight road game or later). The Chargers are 2-4 SU in those games, losing three straight and four of five.
- Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite:
- Underdog: 12-6 ATS, 16-2 in 6-pt teasers
- Favorite: 15-18-1 ATS, 24-8 in 6-pt teasers
- Herbert and the Chargers haven’t performed well off of close games lately. They're 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games coming off of a three-point decision either way in their last game.
- Herbert is 9-14-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of three points or less. That would be an issue, except Kirk Cousins is 24-31-1 ATS in these exact such games.
- Herbert is 15-32-5 against the second-half spread in his career. Since 2005, he’s 244th of 248 QBs in 2H ATS profitability.
- Herbert can't hold a lead, as he’s 7-22-2 2H ATS when leading at halftime (-$1,555, worst in NFL since he was drafted).
- Herbert 2H ATS Career
- 2023: 0-1-1 ATS
- 2022: 6-10-2 ATS
- 2021: 5-12 ATS
- 2020: 4-9-2 ATS
The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Between their playoff game against the Giants, Week 1 against the Bucs and Week 2 against the Eagles, they’ve now lost three straight one-score games.
Minnesota won only two games by more than one score last year, including 11-1 SU in one-score games. The Vikings ended up with -10 point diff.
The Vikings are 0-2 SU to start the year for the third time in the last four seasons (1-7 SU in first two games of the year in that span).
Cousins has started 0-2 SU three times – 2016, 2020, 2021. He’s 3-0 ATS in Week 3, covering by 7.5 PPG.
Early rest is good. Teams on 10+ days of rest in the first three games of the year are 31-24-2 ATS and 18-11-1 ATS off of a loss in the last 20 years.
Teams after playing the Eagles have struggled in recent years. They are 19-33 ATS since 2020, the 3rd-least profitable previous opponent in the NFL.
- Cousins is 69-72-2 ATS in his career – 30-28 ATS w/ WAS, 39-44-2 ATS w/ MIN
- Since 2020 – home: 10-17 ATS | road: 12-11-1 ATS
- Cousins and the Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Covered Week 18 vs. Bears.
- No two QBs hate a losing streak more than Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Both face maybe their toughest tests of that. In the last 20 years, they're No. 2 and No. 4 ATS of 241 QBs on a two-plus game SU losing streak. The best QB in this spot is Drew Brees. Wilson is 14-4-1 ATS, Cousins is 17-7 ATS.
- In Cousins’ career, he's just 11-18 SU, 9-20 ATS on extended rest (8+ days).
- In the last 20 years, Cousins is the second-least profitable QB (-$1,136) on extended rest of 217 qualified QBs (only ahead of Tony Romo).
- How many QBs are seven games under .500 SU on extended rest? Three in the last 20 years.
- Cousins: 7 (11-18)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7 (7-14-1)
- Andy Dalton: 7 (11-18)
- The over is 23-13 in Cousins’ 36 starts since 2021 – making him the most profitable QB to the over in that span.
- No bounce back. Cousins 15-14 SU, 14-15 ATS after a night game, but with Vikings, that’s 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS.
- In his NFL career, Kirk Cousins is 37-24 ATS after a SU loss, the fifth-most profitable QB ATS in this spot over the last 20 years.
- Can Cousins get his first win? Kirk is just 11-17-1 SU in “toss up” games with the Vikings – spread of three points or less either way – making him the least profitable QB on the moneyline in that spot.
- As a Dog: 24-44-1 SU, 36-33 ATS (9-23 SU, 14-18 ATS w/ MIN)
- As a Home dog in his career: 9-11 SU, 11-9 ATS (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS w/ MIN)
- Cousins is 49-24-1 SU as a favorite in his career (67.1%)
- How Cousins performs based on the time of day:
- 1p ET or earlier: 48-38-2 ATS
- 4p ET or later: 21-34 ATS
Justin Jefferson becomes the first player with 150+ receiving yards in the first two games of a season since Steve Smith Sr. in 2011.
- Week 1: 9 catches, 150 yards
- Week 2: 11 catches, 159 yards
|Ryan Tannehill, TEN|
|Deshaun Watson, CLE|
The Titans are 2-0 ATS. It’s their first 2-0 ATS start since 2013.
Tyjae Spears played more snaps than Derrick Henry in Week 1 (34 to 30). In Week 2, Henry got his role back with 46 snaps to 24.
Don’t make the Titans dogs early in the year. Over the last 20 years, they're 25-12 ATS as dogs in the first three weeks, including 7-1 ATS under Mike Vrabel.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Titans have been dogs in their first three games of the season.
- Vrabel is 49-35 SU, 44-38-2 ATS as the Titans' coach
- As an underdog, he’s 23-22 SU and 27-17-1 ATS, including 23-9-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher in the regular season.
- Vrabel is 12-7 SU in September – profiting $100 bettor $991 – best of any coach straight up in the last 20 years and he’s 35-23 SU in Sept, Oct and Nov. in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).
- Vrabel is 23-22 SU as an underdog, and is the only coach above .500 SU as an underdog with a minimum of 20 games coached as a dog (90+ coaches).
- Vrabel is 2-4 SU/ATS in Week 1 – he’s 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS in Week 2
- Vrabel by game number:
- 1-2: 5-7 ATS
- 3rd game on: 41-34-2 ATS
- Vrabel is coming off a win as an underdog last week against the Chargers. The public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Vrabel is 14-8 ATS in this spot, covering by 6.8 PPG. Vrabel is second-best ATS in this spot since his first year behind just Ron Rivera.
- After a win as a dog SU, Vrabel is 9-3 ATS when listed as a dog again.
- Tannehill is 74-72-4 ATS in his career – 33-27-2 ATS w TEN, 41-45-2 ATS w/ MIA
- Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season: 55-43-2 ATS in Sept-Nov | 19-29-2 ATS in Dec or later
- Tannehill is 30-19 against the 1H spread in the last four yrs, which is best in the NFL.
- In that same span, he’s 21-27-1 against the 2H spread.
- Tannehill was +100 to throw an INT in Week 1 and he threw 3 of them. In Week 2, he was -145 to throw an INT and he threw none.
The Browns won their opener the last two years now. They are 2-16-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005 and 3-22-1 SU in openers since 1995.
In Weeks 2-4, the Browns went 1-2 SU last year. Between 2019-21, they were 8-1 SU in these games.
The Browns are now 1-10-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 2005 and 2-15-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 1999. After Week 1, the Browns are 25-14 SU at home since 2018.
Browns haven’t had an opponent run a play in the red zone this season.
- Watson is 3-6 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 and he’s 7-10 ATS in the first four games of the year in his career.
- The Browns are 1-1 ATS this season. Watson hasn’t finished above .500 ATS since his rookie year (2017).
- Watson is 17-17-2 ATS in his career vs. teams that are .500 SU or worse.
- Watson has started 12 games on short rest. His teams are 10-1 SU, 6-3-2 ATS on short rest in his career.
- Watson’s 90.9% SU win percentage in this spot is the highest in the NFL over the last 20 years.
- Kevin Stefanski is 6-1 SU on short rest. His only loss was a two-point road loss in Green Bay.
- Watson’s 10.5 intended air yards per attempt is the highest in the NFL.
- Watson has struggled recently. Out of 35 QBs with 200 pass attempts since the start of 2022 (via Rodger Sherman).
- 33rd in yards/attempt (just below Carson Wentz)
- 33rd in passer rating (just below Davis Mills)
- 33rd in ANY/A
- 34th in sack rate
- 34th in completion %
- 30th in Success Rate
- Stefanksi is 5-1 ATS in the game after playing the Steelers or Ravens on the road as coach of the Browns.
- The Browns are 6-14 ATS vs. the AFC North under Stefanski.
- Of 144 head coaches in the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable coach.
- Stefanski is 17-15-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
- Stefanski with the Browns:
- Favorite: 19-10 SU, 10-19 ATS
- Dog: 7-15 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
|CJ Stroud, HOU|
|Trevor Lawrence, JAC|
The Texans have won four games or less SU in three straight years (2020-22) – last team to do it four straight years? 1972-75 Bears.
The Texans are one of eight teams that don’t have a SU or ATS win and they are one of six teams facing an opponent not in that spot – HOU, DEN, NE, CAR, CHI, CIN. Those winless teams are 141-108–5 ATS (56.6%) in the last 20 years, including 50-29-1 ATS (63.3%) since 2016.
A fun trip to Florida. Teams who go from a home game to a road game in Florida (TB, JAC, MIA) are just 155-139-10 ATS over the last 20 years. But earlier in the season is another story. Week 3 matches: DEN, HOU, PHI
- Sept-Oct: 72-43-3 ATS
- Nov on: 83-96-7 ATS
- Stroud is fourth in passing yards this season and has no interceptions on 91 pass attempts.
- Stroud’s 91 pass attempts is the most by a QB in his first two starts without an interception. Record through three games is Warren Moon with 103.
- Ohio State first round picks (Fields, D. Haskins, Art Schlister, Stroud) are 8-40 straight up in their NFL careers.
- An Ohio State quarterback hasn’t won his first career NFL start since Craig Krenzel in 2004.
- Stroud has 0 interceptions through his first two starts on 91 pass attempts.
- Stroud had 28 completions with no INT in the loss to Baltimore in Week 1. Since 1970, the only other quarterbacks with 25-plus completions and zero interceptions in their NFL debut were Mac Jones in 2021 and Dak Prescott in 2016.
Some relief? Teams are 23-11 SU the week after facing the Chiefs over the last three seasons.
- Lawrence is 16-22 ATS in his career – 11-10 ATS w/ Doug Pederson, 5-12 ATS w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer.
- Lawrence is 16-22 against the 1H spread in his career – since drafted in 2021, he's third-worst of 88 QBs ahead of just Tom Brady and Justin Fields. Lawrence is 2-0 against the 1H ATS so far in 2023.
- Lawrence is 23-15 to the under in the last three seasons, the most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 88 QBs).
- Lawrence is just 3-5 SU as a favorite in his NFL career.
- Since he was drafted in 2021, QBs at least two games below .500 SU as a favorite include Lawrence, Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Newton and Sam Ehlinger.
- Lawrence is 14-6-1 against the second-half spread since the start of last season – the 2nd-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Joe Burrow.
- Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 4-10 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and he's under .500 ATS in this spot all three years of his career.
- Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just six of 38 career games.
- Lawrence by opponent in the AFC South. He’s only under .500 SU vs. Texans.
- HOU: 1-3 SU/ATS
- TEN: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
- IND: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS
- The Jaguars are 7-15 SU off a loss under Lawrence. They are 6-7 SU off of a win. Lawrence is 8-14 ATS in his career off a loss, but he’s on a three-game SU/ATS win streak in this spot currently.
- Pederson ATS in his career: 54-53 ATS
- Sept-Nov: 30-38 ATS
- Dec on: 24-15 ATS
- Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite:
- Underdog: 30-23 ATS
- Favorite: 24-30 ATS
|Mac Jones, NE|
|Zach Wilson, NYJ|
The Patriots have lost six consecutive games against the spread dating back to last season, the longest ATS losing streak in the NFL (NE is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games).
The Patriots haven’t lost six straight ATS since their seven-game ATS losing streak back in 2007-08 when they went 19-1 and lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots are 0-2 SU to start the season for the first time since 2001. They went on to win the Super Bowl that season.
- Jones is 14-19-1 ATS career – the least profitable QB in the last 20 years under Bill Belichick
- Mac is 4-0 ATS vs. Jets, Zach Wilson is 10-19-1 ATS vs. all other QBs
- Mac is 11-7-1 ATS as a favorite and 3-12 ATS as an underdog. Jones has lost 11 consecutive starts ATS as an underdog.
- Since Brady left, Belichick and NE are 25-28 SU, 24-28-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick without Brady as head coach: 43-46 SU w/ NE, 36-44 SU w/ CLE.
- Between 2003 and 2020, Bill Belichick was 42-16 SU in September, but recently, the trend has fallen by the wayside, as he’s 2-6 SU in September over the past three years.
Least Profitable Coaches SU in Sept Since 2021
- Urban Meyer: 0-4 SU
- Frank Reich: 1-6-1 SU
- Bill Belichick: 2-6 SU
Patriots since 2020 without Tom Brady
- 5-1 ATS vs. Jets
- 3-11 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins
The Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2015. That's 14 consecutive losses for New York against New England.
Since 2014, they are 1-17 SU vs. the Patriots. NE is 23-2 against the Jets since Dec. 2010.
- With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. The Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 3-25 SU, 10-18 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
- 34 QBs have had 300+ plays since start of last season, Wilson has the 2nd-lowest EPA/play. Lowest? Deshaun Watson.
- Wilson has zero completions of 20+ yards this season.
- Wilson has thrown seven INT vs. Patriots. That is 30% of his career INT all vs. NE.
- Saleh is 0-4 SU vs. Patriots. In the last 20 years, only one Jets coach is worse vs. NE, Herm Edwards went 0-6 SU vs. Patriots in that span.
- In 13 division games, Saleh is 3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS. The Jets are 3-4 SU at home and 0-6 SU on the road vs. the AFC East.
- There have been six different Jets coaches in the last 20 years and none have been profitable ATS with New York. Saleh is 16-20 ATS with Jets.
|Derek Carr, NO|
|Jordan Love, GB|
The Saints are 30-12 SU, 27-14-1 ATS on the road since 2018, the second-most profitable team ATS on the road in that span (Bengals are first; second-most profitable on ML, Titans are first).
In this span, the Saints are 13-3 SU, 12-4 ATS on the second game or later of a road trip.
The Saints are 2-0 SU to start the season for the first time since 2013 and just the second time since 2010.
The Saints have held opponents under 21 points in 10 consecutive games — only the Patriots have a better streak with 11 in the last decade.
- The Saints picked up the narrow win against the Titans in Week 1 and then again over the Panthers in Week 2, winning but not covering. In Derek Carr’s career, he is 26-35-1 ATS after a SU win, seventh-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003.
- Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints, he is 0-1-1 ATS as a favorite.
- Carr is the third-least profitable (211 of 213) QB as a favorite in the past 20 years. He’s ahead of just Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler.
- Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016.
- As an underdog, Carr is 51-44-1 ATS in his career.
- Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career. He's 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 0-1-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
- 15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 0-1-1 ATS
- Carr is 19-30-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (122 of 122 QBs). He’s 22-21-1 ATS at home in that span.
- Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season in the Packers – he's 31-52-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 254 QBs in Bet Labs' database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
- Allen is 17-38 (31%) SU, 21-32-2 (40%) ATS
- As a favorite: 9-5 SU, 4-9-1 ATS
- Dog of more than FG: 5-23 SU
- After a SU win: 4-12 SU
- Allen has coached seven career games on short rest and his teams are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
- Allen’s longest SU win streak as a coach is three with Saints, which was done at the end of last season.
- Allen-coached teams are 0-4 toward the over on their preseason win total.
The Packers were projected in the preseason to be favored in two of their first 13 games to start the season. This is the first. The second is Week 9 vs. Rams.
The Packers are 2-0 ATS to open the season for first time since 2020. They were an underdog in both of those games while covering for the first time since 2007.
The Packers play their first home game in Week 3 – only the second time in the last 20 years that they have opened at home this late into the season (2016).
- Love has 3 TD, 0 INT in consecutive games. Only one Green Bay QB has done that in the first two games of the season – Brett Favre, 1996.
- Only 12 drop backs under pressure for Love, which is second-fewest of any QB minimum 50 drop backs (fewest is Jimmy Garoppolo).
- LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He's 15-5 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 3-0 with Jordan Love.
- As a favorite, he's 29-24 ATS.
- Overall, LaFleur is the sixth-most profitable coach ATS over the last 20 years at 44-29 ATS.
- The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 3 will be their first game as a favorite this year.
- Between 2019-21, the Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
The Packers were +6600 to win the Super Bowl, their longest odds since being listed at 100-1 in 2006 in preseason. Their win total of 7.5 was their lowest since 2007 (won 13 games).
The Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season.
|Russell Wilson, DEN|
|Tua Tagovailoa, MIA|
- On a two-game or more SU losing streak, Wilson is 14-5 SU, 14-4-1 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, only Drew Brees is better ATS. His head coach? Sean Payton.
- Wilson is 10-21 SU over the last three seasons. He was 107-52-1 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
- Wilson has lost five consecutive starts on the road SU (1-8 SU on road in his last nine starts)
- No two QBs hate a losing streak more than Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Both face maybe their toughest tests of that. In the last 20 years, they are No. 2 and No. 4 ATS of 241 QBs on a two-plus game SU losing streak. Best QB in this spot is Drew Brees. Wilson is 14-4-1 ATS, Cousins is 17-7 ATS.
- Wilson is 8-15-1 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 in his career – over the last 20 years, that is the second-worst ATS mark of 163 QBs in the NFL.
- In Weeks 3 and 4, Wilson is 15-7 ATS, third-best in the last 20 years.
- Wilson has started 0-2 twice prior to 2023, and he’s 2-0 SU/ATS in those games back in 2015 and 2018.
- Payton is 17-11 SU, 19-9 ATS on a two-plus game losing streak in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is know as the king of the underdogs. He’s 54-31-4 ATS in the last 20 years as a dog, best coach in the NFL. Who is second-best? Sean Payton, 50-30-2 ATS.
- After losing in Week 1, Payton is now 2-6 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.9 PPG.
- Payton is 4-12 ATS in Week 2, worst of any coach over the last 20 years
- Payton has started 0-2 five times prior to 2023, and he’s only 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS in those games, but 2-0 ATS when listed as an underdog.
- Payton ATS by QB:
- Brees: 122-104-3 ATS
- All others: 18-13 ATS
- Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Payton
- Payton has gone seven straight years with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
- In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
Broncos First Two Games – Last Two Seasons (Payton vs. Hackett)
- SU: 0-2 vs. 1-1
- ATS: 0-2 vs. 0-2
- Yards: 659 vs. 783
- Pts: 49-52 vs. 32-36
Can the hype get bigger? Last time the Dolphins were undefeated with a point spread of six points or more came back in Week 3 of 2002 against the Jets. They were -6, 2-0 and won at home 30-3.
The Dolphins are still the favorites to win the AFC East. Miami hasn’t been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they haven’t been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008.
They haven't the won AFC East in 14 seasons (fifth-longest active streak in NFL).
Historically, betting the Dolphins at home has been only profitable later in the season, but more recently under Mike McDaniel and Tua, Miami has won early at home.
- Last 20 years at home, Miami is 27-39 SU in Sept-Oct and 56-37 SU from November on.
- Since 2017, the Dolphins are 6-1 SU as home favorites in Sept-Oct.
Teams after facing the Patriots in New England are 16-23-1 ATS since 2018. In the last 20 years, the Dolphins are 5-11 ATS in this spot, worst of any team in the NFL
The Dolphins haven’t handled expectations well. In the last 20 years, they have been favored by five points or more seven times in their first three games. They are 2-5 SU, 0-7 ATS.
They haven’t closed -6 or higher in their first three games since 2016
- Tua was 18-1 to win MVP entering Week 1, 7-1 entering Week 2 and is now the favorite at +550.
- Tua prefers South Florida when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-5 ATS at home and 9-9-1 ATS away from home in his career.
- The Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. They're 33-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
- Tua by time zone:
- 18-7-1 ATS in EST
- 3-6 ATS in all other time zones
- Tua is 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS as a favorite of over four points. In his career, he's avoided the big upset bug.
- Follow the line with Tua? The Dolphins opened at -3.5 vs. the Broncos and are now up to a 6+-point favorite. When the line moves towards Tua (ex. -3 to -5), he’s won 10 of his last 11 starts straight up.
|Josh Allen, BUF|
|Sam Howell, WAS|
- Allen has 57 wins in his career. 43 of those 57 wins have been by seven points or more.
- Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career. He's 29-16-3 ATS on seven days rest. He’s 7-8-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
- The biggest advantage in Buffalo? That might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 51-32-3 against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the third-most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
- Allen is 16-5 SU, 13-7-1 ATS vs. the NFC in his career.
- Since 2018, Allen has 63 INT, second-most in the NFL behind Baker Mayfield.
- Rivera is coming off of a win as an underdog last week against the Broncos. Public would assume there's a step back the following week, but Rivera is 12-3-1 ATS in this spot since 2018 – the best ATS in this spot in that span.
- Rivera is 25-9-1 ATS in this spot for his career, most profitable coach in the NFL. After a win as a dog SU, Rivera is 12-4-1 ATS when listed as a dog again.
- Get out of the thin air. Last five years, teams after playing in Denver are 24-10 ATS in their next game – most profitable previous road opponent in the NFL.
- Ride The Wave. Commanders are 7-2-1 ATS on a two-plus game SU win streak under Ron Rivera.
- Rivera is 57-42-2 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career, includes a 22-16-1 ATS mark as a home dog.
- Being a home dog at 2-0 doesn’t happen often. In the last 20 years, only nine teams have been undefeated SU on the season and a home underdog of six points or more. Those teams are 7-2 ATS.
|Desmond Ridder, ATL|
|Jared Goff, DET|
- Ridder has still never lost a home game as a starting QB in college or the NFL:
- NFL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
- CFB: 26-0 SU, 17-9 ATS
- Total: 30-0 SU, 19-11 ATS
- On the road, though, has been a different story so far in the NFL:
- NFL: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
- CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
- Total: 15-6 SU, 10-11 ATS
Ridder Home/Road NFL Career (Home vs. Road)
- W-L: 3-0 vs. 0-2
- ATS: 2-1 vs. 1-1
- PPG: 24.8 vs. 13.5
- TD-INT: 4-1 vs. 0-0
- Y/A: 7 vs. 5.3
- Smith is 9-9 SU, 6-12 ATS at home as a head coach (7-11 SU, 10-7-1 ATS road/neutral)
- He's the worst Falcons HC ATS at home in the last 20 years. Since being hired in 2021, he's the least profitable coach ATS at home.
- Smith ATS by month:
- Sept-Oct: 10-7 ATS
- From Nov. on: 6-12-1 ATS
- Falcons are 4-10 SU, 4-9-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith. His 4-9-1 ATS mark is third-worst of any head coach last 3 seasons.
- In 53 seasons since the merger, six rookies have led the NFL in rushing: Earl Campbell (1978), George Rogers (1981), Eric Dickerson (1983), Edgerrin James (1999), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Kareem Hunt (2017). Bijan Robinson is second in the league in rushing entering Week 3. Robinson is 14-1 to lead the league in rushing entering the week (Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL).
What an unusual spot for the Lions. They are favored in their third game or later against an undefeated team for just the second time in the last 20 years. It last happened in 2013 at home vs. the 3-0 Bears and Jay Cutler. The Lions won and covered, 40-32.
- Goff is now 11-3 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 in his career – second-best ATS of any QB in the last 20 years (Aaron Rodgers is first).
- Goff is just 5-7 ATS in Weeks 3 and 4
- Goff is 15-7 ATS in September – best of any month — and 11-14 ATS in October — worst of any month.
- Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years (40-24-1 ATS, +$1,329).
- The Lions are facing the Falcons indoors in Detroit this week. Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor:
- Indoor: 26-14 ATS (16-6 ATS last 2 seasons)
- Outdoor: 32-33-2 ATS
- Goff broke his interception streak last week against the Seahawks. In 2023, he's +0.55 units betting the yes INT prop. If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB). The second-worst was Kenny Pickett at -6.3U.
- Goff is 17-8 ATS at home since 2020, second-most profitable QB in the NFL behind Jalen Hurts.
- This would be the fourth time Goff is favored by a FG or more with the Lions, Detroit is 1-2 SU/ATS.
- Goff has faced a team with a 75%+ win percentage six times over the last three seasons. He's 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS.
- Over in home games, under in road games. That's been a trend for Campbell with the Lions:
- Home: 13-11 to over
- Road: 14-10 to under
|Lamar Jackson, BAL|
The Baltimore Colts went to Indianapolis in 1984. Baltimore then got the Ravens in 1996. The Ravens are just 7-10 SU, 6-11 ATS vs. the Colts since moving. In Baltimore, the Ravens are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS.
The Colts play back-to-back road games, with the Texans next week and the Ravens this week. Teams playing back-to-back road games within the first three games of the season are 92-64-5 ATS (59%) in the last 20 years.
Week 3 matches: NYG, NO, LAC, IND, CHI
Since 2008, the Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1. They are now 10-6 ATS in Week 2 after beating the Texans. After Indy’s tough starts, it usually keeps the train running. The Colts are 11-4 ATS in Week 3 and 21-10 ATS in Weeks 2 and 3 since 2008.
- Gardner Minshew is 1-10 SU in his last 11 starts – lost eight consecutive starts SU as a dog. He’s 1-9 ATS in his last 10 starts (3-9 ATS since 2020).
- Minshew has faced six teams above .500 SU in his career; his teams are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS.
- Colts QBs have struggled in the backup role. They are 4-14 SU (8-8 ATS) since 2017.
- Anthony Richardson hasn’t attempted a pass 20+ yards downfield this season.
- Fewest college starts by first-round QB in the last 20 years
- 2023 Anthony Richardson, 13 (started Week 1) | Lost first start SU/ATS. Won second start SU/ATS.
- 2017 Mitch Trubisky, 13 (started Week 5) | Lost first start SU. Won second start SU. Covered first three starts of career.
- 2019 Dwayne Haskins, 14 (started Week 9) | Started career 0-2 SU/ATS.
- Jackson is 17-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. In all other spots, he's 18-26 ATS career. He’s 2-11 ATS as a favorite of three points or more since 2021, second-worst in the NFL ahead of just Patrick Mahomes
- Jackson is 23-8 SU and 11-20 ATS as a home favorite. Of 210 QBs over the last 20 years, he's ranked 204th ATS as a home favorite.
- Lamar as a seven-point favorite or higher: 24-4 SU, 16-2 SU at home & 13-15 ATS, 8-10 ATS at home.
- He’s just 9-15 ATS playing a home game at 1P ET
- Jackson is 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) after facing the Bengals. After facing an AFC North team on the road, Jackson is 5-1 ATS.
- Jackson vs. the NFC: 15-1 SU, 7-9 ATS. He’s 33-18 SU, 28-23 ATS vs. the AFC
- Jackson has scored one rush TD in his last 11 games.
- In Week 2 vs. the Bengals, Jackson broke a 4four-game 1H ATS losing streak. He was 1-8 against 1H ATS before covering 1H vs. CIN.
- Lamar covers 1H early in year:
- Games 1-4 = 12-5-1 1H ATS
- Lamar 1H ATS – Road: 22-10-1 | Home: 17-16-1
- Has Lamar lost the 1H charm?
- 2021-23: 11-14-1 1H ATS
- 2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
- Under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 12-4 ATS in Week 1, the most profitable Week 1 coach in the Bet Labs database.
- Harbaugh is 10-6 SU, ATS in Week 2 as the coach of the Ravens.
- Between Weeks 1 and 2, Harbaugh is 22-10 ATS, best coach ATS in the NFL.
- In Week 3, he’s 7-7-1 ATS and Weeks 3-4, he’s 13-15-1 ATS.
- Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and four games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
- Harbaugh is 147-107-9 1H ATS with a $100 bettor up $3,287, most of any coach in the NFL since 2005.
- In Harbaugh’s career, he's 49-8 SU, 22-34-1 ATS at home against opponents .500 SU or worse. Baltimore is 1-7 ATS in this spot since 2021 and 8-15 ATS since 2017.
- Of 141 coaches in the last 20 years, Harbaugh is second-worst ATS ahead of just Mike Shanahan.
The Ravens are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog, including 19-5 ATS as a dog since 2018 – second-best in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers. Since 2018, Baltimore is 29-36 ATS as a favorite.
Todd Monken and the Ravens covered in Week 1 and Week 2. Monken is the new OC in BAL. His fifth OC-type stint in the NFL, and his teams' ATS results haven’t been great in the NFL prior to this season.
- 2023: BAL 2-0 ATS
- 2019 CLE: 5-10-1 ATS
- 2018 TB: 5-9-2 ATS
- 2017 TB: 6-9-1 ATS
- 2016 TB: 9-7 ATS
- Total: 27-35-4 ATS
|Andy Dalton, CAR|
|Geno Smith, Sea|
The Panthers are 0-2 SU for the fourth time in five seasons.
Frank Reich by game number:
- Opener: 0-5-1 SU
- Week 2: 4-2 SU
- Week 3: 4-1 SU
Don’t fear the EST to PST trip for Carolina. Teams to do this and play on the road in PST in first four weeks are 39-29-1 ATS. In Sept, Oct and Nov, they are 18 games above .500 ATS. In Dec. or later, they are 14 games below .500 ATS.
- In Carroll’s 13 years as head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total – never won less than seven games
- Carroll after losing Week 1: 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS
- Carroll is 5-9 ATS in Week 2
- Carroll in Weeks 1 and 2: 11-16-1 ATS
- Carroll in Week 3 and on: 107-89-7 ATS
- Smith is 20-14-2 ATS as a dog, but only 7-11 ATS as a favorite
- Smith and the Seahawks may have covered last week, but Geno is 2-9 ATS in his last nine starts.
- Geno has only been favored by more than four points four times in his career, with -6.5 happening twice in 2014 and 2022. As a favorite of over four points, Geno is 0-4 ATS.
|Dak Prescott, DAL|
|Joshua Dobbs, ARI|
- Dak is 4-6-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 53-40-1 ATS in EST and CST.
- Prescott has been a double-digit favorite nine times entering this week, and the Cowboys are 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS. Their only loss came against the Broncos in 2021.
- This would be Dak’s third game as a double-digit road favorite, winning by a combined 48-19 score in his previous two games.
- The Cowboys will be the ninth team last 20 years to be a double-digit road favorite in the first three weeks. Those teams are 8-0 SU and 3-5 ATS.
- This line initially opened at Dallas -7 and has ballooned to -12 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Dak. His teams are 16-8 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Dak between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 26-18-1 ATS in his career.
- Dak does well vs. bad teams. He's 26-12-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 17-25 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. The 26-12-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
In the Wild Card era, no 2-0 ATS team has been a double-digit home underdog in Week 3. Arizona would be just the fourth 2-0 ATS team to be a double-digit underdog at all since 1990:
- 2013 Raiders
- 2010 Lions
- 2004 49ers
Double-digit underdogs are 72-51 ATS at home over the last 20 years.
Nobody wants to bet on the Cardinals.
- Week 1: ARI +7 at WAS, 22% tickets
- Week 2: ARI +4.5 vs. NYG, 18% tickets
- Week 3: ARI +12.5 vs. DAL, 16% tickets
If the Cardinals close with 25% of tickets or fewer on Action Network, they would join these three other teams with less than 25% of tickets in their first three games of the season over the last 20 years.
- 2023 Cardinals
- 2012 Dolphins
- 2010 Bills
- 2005 Browns
With Kyler Murray hurt, Arizona will start a “backup QB” in Week 2. The Cardinals are 3-8 SU, 7-4 ATS with a backup QB in the Kyler Murray era (since 2019).
Points scored in ARI games since start of last year without Kyler: 13, 19, 16, 15, 10, 27, 16, 28
The team with the lowest win total opens the year with a cover. In 17-game schedule era, five teams to have a win total of 4.5 or less are 39-31 ATS, including starting 9-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season.
Lowest Win Total in 17-Game Schedule Era (Since 2021)
- 4 – 2021 Texans (3 wins, 8-9 ATS – started 2-0 ATS)
- 4.5 – 2023 Cardinals (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)
- 4.5 – 2022 Falcons (7 wins, 9-8 ATS – started 2-0 ATS)
- 4.5 – 2022 Texans (3 wins, 9-8 ATS – started 2-0 ATS)
- 4.5 – 2021 Lions (4 wins, 11-6 ATS – started 1-1 ATS)
|Justin Fields, CHI|
|Patrick Mahomes, KC|
The Bears have lost five consecutive games against the spread dating back to last season, the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL behind just the Patriots (6).
Chicago is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Bears haven’t lost six straight ATS since 2009, when they lost seven straight games ATS.
- Fields has just two total designed runs this season for one yard.
- In his final nine games of last season, Fields had 31 designed runs (3.4 per game) for 310 yards (34 yards per game) – via Connor Allen.
- Fields has started 27 games. He’s 5-22 SU, he’s been sacked 101 times and he's averaging 156 pass yds per game with 26 pass TD and 24 INT.
- The Bears haven’t scored more than 20 points in eight straight games. Their last win was October 24, 2022.
The Chiefs' next six opponents and their current W-L record:
- Bears (0-2)
- @ Jets (1-1)
- @ Vikings (0-2)
- Broncos (0-2)
- Chargers (0-2)
- @ Broncos (0-2)
- Percentage of passes dropped per drop back: 9.1% for Mahomes, highest in NFL
- Patrick Mahomes as a double-digit favorite: 21-2 SU, 9-13-1 ATS
- Mahomes starts' by point spread
- Favorite: 86 (42-43-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
- -10 or higher: 23 (9-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 73 (41-31-1 ATS)
- -3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 70 (31-38-1 ATS)
- Mahomes is 29-21-1 to the under in his home starts. He's 9-2 to the under at home over the last two seasons.
- Mahomes is just 4-12 ATS in his last 16 games after a SU win dating back to 2022.
- Andy Reid is 45-23 SU in September since 2003, including 17-4 SU since 2017-18. His 45-23 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $981 — second-most of any coach in the Bet Labs database, behind Mike Vrabel.
- Mahomes is 20-4 SU, 12-11-1 ATS vs. the NFC in his career. He’s 13-0 SU as a favorite of six or more vs. NFC.
|Kenny Pickett, PIT|
|Jimmy Garoppolo, LV|
Tough trip for the Steelers in Vegas and Panthers in Seattle. Teams going from EST to PST, playing on the road on short rest are 8-16 ATS in the last 20 years, failing to cover the spread by 5.5 PPG.
- Tomlin road unders. He's 77-59-1 (56.6%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach in the last 20 years. He's 52-25-1 (68%) since 2014.
- The Steelers are 54-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,090. That makes him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years.
- The Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
- PIT is 1-1 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
- Tomlin is 44-45 SU as an underdog. He’s been profitable SU as a dog in seven straight seasons.
- The Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 31-20-3 ATS, covering by two PPG.
- Tomlin is 6-13 SU in MST and PST time zones in his career with Steelers, including 0-4 SU within the first four weeks of the regular season.
- Pickett is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in night games with Steelers. In the last 20 years, he’s the only QB 4-0 ATS or better at night over the last 20 years.
- In college at Pitt at night: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS
Buyer Beware: teams to open as the underdog and close as the favorite are 45-83 ATS (35%) since 2018.
Former rushing champ has struggled this season. Josh Jacobs has 46 rushing yards on 28 attempts in 2023 (1.6 Y/A). He’s never finished a season with below 3.9 Y/A. In Week 2, he rushed for -2 yards on nine carries, becoming the first defending rush champ to finish with negative rush yards since the merger.
- Jimmy G is 16-8 straight up and 18-6 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career. As a favorite, he's 29-12 SU, 20-20-1 ATS.
- Garoppolo is 7-9 ATS in September and 31-17-1 ATS in all other months
- Garoppolo in night games: 13-7 SU, 11-9 ATS
- Garoppolo bounces back well. He’s 5-1 SU after losing by double-digits in his previous game, winning by 6.2 PPG.
- Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas:
- Raiders at home in Vegas: 11-14 SU, 13-12 ATS
- On road/neutral: 14-14 SU, 12-16 ATS
- Vegas is most profitable road/neutral team on ML since moving to Vegas (+$807)
|Jalen Hurts, PHI|
|Baker Mayfield, TB|
The Eagles are 2-0 SU and ATS after covering the closing spread of 5.5 points against the Vikings last week. The Eagles are 2-0 SU in consecutive years for the first time since 1992-93.
The Eagles haven’t started 2-0 SU/ATS since 2016
Teams to start 2-0 SU/ATS after winning by seven pts or less in Week 2 are 23-13 ATS in the last 20 years in Week 3. Week 3 matches: PHI, MIA, BAL
The Eagles' defense allowed 28 points in Week 2 vs. Vikings. Here are Philly D points allowed in Hurts' starts after allowing 28+ points the previous game last year: 10, 16, 7
- Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
- Home: 14-5-1 ATS (best of 88 QBs since 2020)
- Road/Neutral: 7-13 ATS (worst of 90 QBs since 2020)
- Eagles played at home last week and now hit the road for the second time this year. Hurts is just 5-10 ATS in his first road game off of a home game.
- Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 23-5 SU as a favorite with Hurts as the starter, including 23-3 SU when the Eagles are favored by 3 points or more (21-1 SU in last 22 starts).
- Hurts' career on extended rest (8+ days): 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
- Hurts has only played one road game on 10+ days rest – 2021 in Vegas. The Eagles lost 33-22. He played all six games on extended rest at home last year.
- Hurts has won 19 out of his last 20 regular season starts. He's the sixth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have that stretch, with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Montana and Jim McMahon.
Teams are 12-6 ATS after playing the Bears since the start of last season, third-best record in the NFL.
- Baker Mayfield is first Buccaneers QB to start season 2-0 with no INTs since Shaun King in 2000.
- Mayfield will be making his 13th start at night. His teams are 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS.
- Mayfield won his first MNF start in 2019 and has since gone 0-4 SU/ATS on MNF.
- Mayfield is 0-2 SU/ATS as a home dog at night.
- Baker is 31-41-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,141 (116th of 119 QBs since he’s been in the league).
- Baker is 13-20-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s 1-0 ATS in 2023 and he’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home.
- Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog | 13-36 SU, 19-27-3 ATS as an underdog (23-15 SU as a favorite)
- Bowles has gone 2-0 SU to start the year twice, in 2015 and 2022. He lost at home in Week 3 both times.
|Matthew Stafford, LAR|
The Rams played the 49ers last week. After playing the 49ers, teams were 1-16 SU last season. This year, they are 1-0 SU, but overall, they are 10-27 SU since the start of the 2021 season.
- Stafford is 13-20 SU, 14-19 ATS in night games. He's 7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS on Monday Night Football.
- As an underdog at night, Stafford is 4-16 SU, 7-13 ATS
- Of 190 QBs to make a start at night as an underdog, Stafford’s 7-13 ATS mark is worst in the NFL
- You can't forget about Mr. Backdoor himself: McVay. He’s 20-13 SU, 17-15-1 ATS in night games. He’s 17-6 SU as a favorite and just 3-7 SU as an underdog.
- This line opened Rams +7.5 and has been as low as +2 early in the week.
- McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards them (ex. -5 to -7).
- McVay is 15-4 SU when the line moves two-plus points towards him. Some of the best coaches:
- Pete Carroll, 31-8
- Bill Belichick: 32-11
- Matt LaFleur: 10-1
- Nick Sirianni: 17-4
- Mike Tomlin: 23-11
The Bengals are seventh team since 2002 to open season with two straight division losses. The previous six teams missed the playoffs:
- 2020 DET & MIA
- 2019 WAS
- 2017 CLE
- 2013 MIN
- 2003 SD
The Bengals are 0-2 SU to start the season. Since 1990, 31 of 270 teams (11.5%) that started 0-2 made the playoffs. The Bengals did so last season. The 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants actually went on to win the Super Bowl after starting 0-2.
- Burrow has made eight night starts, and he's just 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS.
- Burrow has made three home starts at night; the Bengals are 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS.
- During Burrow’s tenure, the Bengals have went to a backup QB in seven starts (Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen) and they went 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS, scoring 16.3 PPG. Burrow is 32-19 ATS in his career.
- Since he was drafted, Burrow is the most profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
- Burrow has lost three straight ATS currently, the longest losing streak of his career (1-5 ATS last six starts).
- Burrow has yet to complete a pass 20+ yards downfield (0-6).
- Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. the AFC North and 23-10 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents
- Burrow is 15-3 SU and 16-2 ATS in his last 18 games vs. non-divisional opponents
- In Burrow’s career, he's 34-16-1 (68%) against the second-half spread in his career. He's 0-2 2H ATS in 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS 2021-22.
- Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 30 times in his career; he's 21-9 ATS, including 15-3 in his last 18 starts.
Since 2002, 99 teams have started 0-3. Just one of those teams (2018 Texans) has made it to the playoffs (via Bill Barnwell).
An 0-2 team has made the playoffs in seven of the last 10 seasons.
The Bengals are 0-2 for the fourth time in five years.
The Bengals were the most popular Super Bowl bet before the season at DraftKings.
The Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought without double-digit win total in NFL – DET). They are 0-2 to open the season.
The Betting Markets
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️
|Biggest NFL Week 3 Public Sides|
Cowboys (-12.5) at ARI
|83% of bets|
Seahawks (-5) vs. CAR
|80% of bets|
|Biggest NFL Week 3 Line Moves|
Patriots (+4.5 to -2.5) at NYJ
Cowboys (-7 to -12.5) at ARI
NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️
|Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 3|
Falcons at Lions (-3)
Bills at Commanders (+6)
|Biggest NFL Week 3 Public Totals|
LAC-MIN (O/U: 54)
|81% of bets to over|
DEN-MIA (O/U: 47.5)
|76% of bets to over|
NFL Betting Systems
System: Can't Cover. Smaller sized underdogs early in the season, facing a team who is favored that maybe shouldn't be based off the first two weeks.
Matches: PIT, CAR, ATL, NYJ, LAR
System: Bet The Bad. These are the teams you don't want to bet. Off a double-digit loss early in the year and on the road the following week.
Matches: CHI, HOU
System: Just Makes Sense. An oldie but a goodie. Take the dog in low total games.
Matches: NYJ, TENN
NFL Anytime TD & First TD Data
Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.
- A new leader! Pierre Strong Jr. scores at +2800 on MNF. Of the top-10, no one has scored in both weeks.
- Most profitable player that scored in both W1 and W2? Kyren Williams at +5.2U.
- TD Scorers with minus odds after W2: 10-7 (58%).
Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.
- Jaleel McLaughlin comes through big time with a 60-1 hit!
- Two Saints in the top-10 with Shaheed & Jones.
- 3 defenses in Top 10 (PIT, DAL, PHI)
- No player has scored first TD of game two weeks in a row.
- Five players have scored their teams first TD in 2023: Hunter Henry, Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, Garrett Wilson, Anthony Richardson.
The Big Picture
League Trends ⤵️
Fade Late Home Openers
Teams playing their first home game in Week 3 are 21-34-2 ATS over the last 20 years. When those teams are listed as a favorite, they are 14-26-2 ATS. As a favorite of three or more, they are 12-21-2 ATS.
Underdogs of three or more facing that opening home team are 29-6 in a six-point teaser over the last 20 years, too.
Week 3 matches: SF, GB, MIA, LV
The public tends to overrate favorites and home-field advantage, no matter what time of year it is. And early in the season, the public also tends to overrate what happened the year prior.
Road underdogs in Week 1 are 113-96-8 ATS over the past 20 years. If you split those road dogs by whether that team made the playoffs the year prior, you see a drastic change:
- Made playoffs year before: 23-37-3 ATS
- Missed playoffs year before: 90-59-5 ATS
Road dogs continue to eat in Weeks 2 and 3. They are 236-196-13 ATS, for a +6.5% ROI last 20 years, including 56-35 ATS (62%) since 2019.
Off a Loss as a Favorite
The bounce-back for favorites still works early in the season. A team who lost as a favorite the previous week is 307-255-16 ATS (54.6%) in their next game during the first six games of the season last 20 years. It is profitable in all six weeks individually, too.
Week 3 matches: LAC, HOU, DEN, DET, CLE, CIN
Super Bowl Futures ⤵️
Biggest Super Bowl Riser
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 66-1 (TB was 150-1 to win SB last week)
Biggest Super Bowl Faller
Denver Broncos: 100-1 (DEN was 45-1 to win SB entering the season)
Win Total Tracker ⤵️
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL Win Totals, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets.
NFL Win Total Grid & Progress
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ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️
For more information on NFL Against The Spread standings, check out the Action Network page on the website.
Award Betting Progress ⤵️
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL award odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets.
NFL Awards Matrix
2nd In Odds
3rd In Odds
|NFL MVP||Tua Tagovailoa (+500)||Patrick Mahomes (+650)||Jalen Hurts (+900)|
|Offensive POY||Justin Jefferson (+600)||Christian McCaffrey (+650)||Tyreek Hill (+700)|
|Defensive POY||Micah Parsons (+200)||Myles Garrett (+600)||T.J. Watt (+700)|
|Offensive ROY||Bijan Robinson (+180||Anthony Richardson (+300)||Puka Nacua (+600)|
|Defensive ROY||Jalen Carter (+225)||Will Anderson (+450)||Christian Gonzalez (+1200)|
|Comeback POY||Damar Hamlin (-120)||Tua Tagovailoa (+250)||Calvin Ridley (+1500)|
|Coach Of The Year||Mike McDaniel (+750)||Arthur Smith (+900)||Dan Campbell (+900)|
|Updated as of September 19th|
Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:
- Story of the week in the awards world is Tua Tagovailoa is the new favorite to win NFL MVP. Tua is also now 2nd in odds for Comeback Player of the Year.
- The other story? Welcome to the welcome to the awards world, Puka Nacua, who is now +600 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after starting the year off the board.
- After starting at 20-1 odds, Mike McDaniel is now the favorite to win Coach of the Year.
For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer
Trivia Question: Over the last 20 years, only ONE quarterback is 5-0 straight up or better as a favorite in September. Hint: he's a favorite this week.
❌ Click This Button For Trivia Answer ✅
Jalen Hurts (5-0 SU)