Cardinals vs Seahawks NFL Week 9 Odds & Picks
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray.
- The Seahawks look to sweep their season series against the Cardinals today.
- Seattle sits atop the NFC West, while Arizona has underwhelmed this season.
- Cody Goggin breaks down both sides and lays out a player prop he's betting below.
Cardinals vs Seahawks Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Looking forward to this second battle, the Cardinals will need to figure out those offensive woes in order to have a shot, but Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t shown a propensity to adjust his game plans in his time as an NFL coach. If he fails to adjust yet again this weekend, the same problems that Arizona faced on offense in Week 6 will pop back up again, leading to another tough day for the Cardinals offense.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Seahawks and Cardinals match up statistically:
Seahawks vs. Cardinals DVOA Breakdown
In the first battle of these two teams, the Cardinals were completely shut down on offense. They were held to a 32% success rate on offense for -0.20 EPA per play. Kyler was held to -0.26 EPA per play and wasn’t able to get anything going all day.
The key component in that game was the success of Seattle’s defense on early downs. Arizona ran the ball 19% more than expected on first down in this game based on the game situation.
Not only was their play selection bad on first down, but they were also highly ineffective when they did run. Arizona averaged a 29% success rate when running the ball on early downs for -0.32 EPA per play.
These issues have plagued the Cardinals all season. Arizona is ranked 31st in PFF run blocking grade with a 45.2 grade. In this game specifically, left tackle D.J. Humphries struggled with a 28.9 run blocking grade, while left guard Max Garcia, who came into the game in relief, also had an abysmal 29.4 run blocking grade. The whole left side of the line was getting blown up in the run game in this one.
Seahawks +1.5 | Cardinals -1.5
This offensive line is still beat up, as Max Garcia and Rodney Hudson are questionable and didn’t practice at all this week, while Humphries is questionable but was able to be a limited participant in practice on Friday. Justin Pugh also suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the first matchup between these teams.
Over the last three weeks, Arizona has had three of their four worst PFF run blocking grades of the season. Since their 39.9 run blocking grade in the first Seattle game, they have also posted grades of 42.7 and 34.7 over the next two weeks. If the offensive line is still as injured as they have been, I would expect that this may continue.
The problems that Arizona had in the first game may carry over to this week as well if the Cardinals keep leaning into these tendencies. According to PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Cardinals offensive line has the biggest disadvantage in the run game of any team this week. James Conner potentially being back this week may help Arizona on early downs, but it may also cause them to lean into this first down tendency.
Due to the problems moving the ball on early downs, this forced Kyler into worse situations on late downs. Arizona was 4-for-16 on third down in this game and 1-for-5 on fourth down. On these third downs, the Cardinals faced an average distance of 8.44 yards, putting Murray in an almost impossible situation.
On late down passes in this game the Cardinals had just a 17% success rate and averaged -0.92 EPA per play.
I expect that Kliff Kingsbury will fail to adjust and this pattern will repeat itself again this weekend. With that being said, I like taking Kyler’s passing yards under this week. He will be put into some poor situations again if the Cardinals aren’t able to convert on their early down runs, leading to less success for this offense overall.
Prior to last week, Kyler had gone under each of the last four games. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins to this offense may be the X-factor that helps to convert on third and long, but I’m willing to take this chance. Seattle has also allowed less passing yards than this in five of their eight games this season, including in three of their last four.