Nico Collins Player Props: Expert Backing WR in Commanders vs Texans

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Nico Collins Receiving Yards

Before pausing his breakout year due to a groin injury, Nico Collins consistently put up strong numbers as a reliable WR2 next to Brandin Cooks. The speedster went over 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games and averaged 55.5 receiving yards per game on 5.4 targets.

In his recent return from injury, Collins was immediately utilized and, for the first time this season, ran the most routes (33) and hauled in the most receptions (10) out of all receivers in the offense. His 27% Target Share and heavy involvement in his first game back was a massive sign of big things to come in a rebuilding offense.

Collins' Week 10 utilization is important to talk about because it emphasizes his teammate Brandin Cooks's current situation. He was stripped of his captain status after the NFL trade deadline and ran his lowest snap percentage this entire season. It appears that he is mentally checked out with the team, which is only better for Collins and his opportunity.

The matchup against the Commanders will likely require Davis Mills to air it out rather than run it on the ground. The Commanders this season have been very stout vs. the run, ranking second in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric vs. the run and 20th in their DVOA metric vs. the passing game.

The defense is also 26th DVOA ranked vs. deep passes. Collins' 12.53 Average Depth-of-Target is not only the most on his team but ranks 10th-most among all receivers with at least 20 receptions. I love his chances to reel in some long ones to add to his total.

With a negative game script in store for the Texans, I like for the breakout season to continue for the Wolverine product, and I love him to go over his receiving yards prop today.