Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Preview: 15 Betting Facts & Trends for Chiefs vs 49ers
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Preview: 15 Betting Facts & Trends for Chiefs vs 49ers
In Patrick Mahomes' NFL career, he has won almost 78% of his games — straight up (SU) on the moneyline that is. Mahomes is 88-25 SU (77.9%), including the playoffs.
For some perspective, only one quarterback since 1950 has a better win percentage than Mahomes in at least 30 starts — Otto Graham at 61-16-1 (78.8%).
Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 starts, he has the second-best win percentage in the playoffs at 82.4% (14-3) — just behind Bart Starr (9-1 SU) — and with a Super Bowl win, Mahomes would move into sole possession of third place all-time in playoff wins (he has 14 currently), behind Joe Montana (16) and Tom Brady (35).
We know Mahomes is a winner. But does he cover?
In his 108 career starts (regular season and playoffs), he is 60-50-3 (55%) against the spread (ATS). When it comes to profitability, a consistent $100 spread bettor would be up $670 backing Mahomes in each of his starts.
How to Bet Patrick Mahomes
Let's go through 15 trends, notes and facts for Mahomes and Super Bowl 58:
1. What A Spot
This is a very successful spot for Mahomes. He’s 4-0 SU at Allegiant Stadium, 3-0 SU against the 49ers and 3-0 SU as an underdog in the playoffs.
Mahomes’ three playoff games as an underdog: 2022-23 Super Bowl vs. Eagles, 2023-24 Divisional Round at Bills, 2023-24 Conference Championship at Ravens.
Patrick Mahomes' four games in Allegiant Stadium: 114-for-155 (74%) for 1,256 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception.
2. Not So Neutral
Mahomes has played four neutral-site games in his career — two Super Bowls and two international games against the Chargers and Dolphins — and is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.8 points per game.
The Chiefs have scored 21 points or more in all four neutral games.
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3. Playing For Keeps
Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in six straight playoff games. He has 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in his past six playoff games.
In Mahomes' two previous Super Bowls, he has thrown four interceptions, two in each game.
Just this season, Mahomes has been on a similar run. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas — five straight games.
4. Markets vs. Bettors
The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs and are now sitting at +2. Only two times in Mahomes' career has he closed as an underdog with the line moving in his direction (+2.5 to +2 or -3.5 to -4) from the opening to closing lines.
2022 at Buccaneers: Kansas City closed +2 and won 41-31.
2018 at Steelers: Kansas City closed +4.5 and won 42-37.
5. Going West
Mahomes has played 21 games in his pro career in either the Pacific or Mountain Standard time zone. Mahomes is 18-3 straight up in those games (12-8-1 ATS).
His three losses? This year against the Broncos and back in 2018 against the Rams and Seahawks. Mahomes is 14-1 SU in PST and MST since the start of the 2019 season.
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6. Dog Eat Dog World
The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. It's just the 11th time Mahomes has opened at +2.5 or higher and he is 9-0-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in those games after defeating the Ravens in the AFC Championship. Mahomes has started 26 games either as a 'dog or favored by 2.5 or less and is 17-6-1 ATS and 21-3-2 (88%) in a 6-point teaser. In Mahomes’ 12 games as an underdog, he is 12-0 in a 6-point teaser.
In the past 20 years, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 60-24-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those quarterbacks are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a 'dog before winning the ring, and 35-16-2 ATS (69%) after the ring — including 13-4 ATS since the 2018 playoffs.
7. Stepping Up
Mahomes is 26-5 SU and 19-12 ATS against defenses allowing fewer than 20 points per game in his career. This season, the 49ers are allowing 18.4 points per game. When these games are played on the road or in a neutral site, Mahomes is 16-1 SU. His one loss was vs. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans in 2019.
Mahomes has won 14 straight starts in this spot. In January and February, Mahomes has faced seven defenses allowing fewer than 20 points per game — he's 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS.
8. Super Bowl Comeback?
Is some of the magic gone? Between 2019 and 2022, the Chiefs were 31-12 SU when trailing by seven points or more at any point in the game — finishing at least three games above .500 SU in all four seasons.
This year, the Chiefs are 5-5 SU in this spot. To be fair, that 50% win percentage is still fifth-best among all teams this season (49ers are first at 5-3 SU in this spot).
Overall, Mahomes is 8-2 SU in the playoffs when trailing by at least seven points at any point. His two losses are against Tom Brady.
9. The Underdog On Top
Mahomes is the +130 favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, though his team is listed as the underdog in the game. This will be just the third time in the past 20 years that the MVP favorite is listed as the underdog in the game itself.
Lowest Odds to Win SB MVP — Team Listed as Underdog
2024 Patrick Mahomes, KC, +130*
2023 Patrick Mahomes, KC, +130 (Won)*
2021 Tom Brady, NE, +190 (Won)
*Super Bowl MVP Favorite
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10. Fast Track
Mahomes has started 12 NFL games played indoors in his career. He is 11-1 SU, winning by 8.1 points per game. His only loss came against the Colts in Indianapolis back in September 2022, against Matt Ryan. The Chiefs are averaging 31.5 points per game in those 12 games.
11. Road Trip
How have the Chiefs, under Mahomes, performed when trying to win back-to-back road games?
The AFC Championship was Mahomes’ 15th game on a road trip (2+ road games). He is 13-2 SU and 8-7 ATS. He was listed as an underdog in four of those games, going 4-0 SU.
Super Bowl 58 will be the fourth game of Mahomes’ career in which he will play his third straight game away from home. He is 3-0 SU in the previous three games in this spot, but only won by six points, seven points and five points in the three games.
12. Pat Props
Let's break down a few Mahomes statistical categories.
Here's how Mahomes has performed in two regular-season games against the 49ers:
2018: 24-for-38, 314 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, sacked twice
2022: 25-for-34, 423 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, sacked once
In the February 2020 Super Bowl matchup, Mahomes was 26-for-42 with 286 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, as well as nine carries for 29 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown and one fumble. He was sacked four times.
So, in three games against the 49ers, Mahomes has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions, fumbled once, been sacked seven times and ran 14 times for 36 yards and a touchdown while averaging 341 passing yards.
• He has thrown for more than 240 passing yards in 12-of-19 games this season, including 10-of-15 played on turf. He's thrown for more than 240 passing yards in 14-of-17 career playoff games.
• Mahomes has had at least 29 rushing yards in all three Super Bowl appearances.
• Mahomes hasn't thrown over 1.5 passing touchdowns in his past six starts on turf.
• Mahomes' prop for his longest completion is 33.5 yards. Against Buffalo and Baltimore, his longest completion was 32 yards. Mahomes has gone under 33.5 longest completion in three straight starts just once since the start of the 2021 season.
13. Rock'em, Sock'em
49ers sack the opposing quarterback at a rate of 4.9% this season (the opponents' percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense).
When Mahomes faces teams with a sack rate of 4% or higher on the road or at a neutral site, he is 16-5-1 ATS in his career, including 7-0 ATS in the past two seasons. His 16-5-1 ATS mark is second best in the past 20 years of 213 quarterbacks (the best is Eli Manning).
14. Top Of The Cap
Mahomes takes up 16.8% of the Chiefs salary cap. He took up 17.2% of the cap last year, which was the highest percentage for a quarterback to win the Super Bowl since the salary cap began in 1994. This year, he could be the second highest.
17.2%: Patrick Mahomes, 2022
13.1%: Steve Young, 1994
12.2%: Tom Brady, 2018 and 2020
Percentage of cap taken up by past three Super Bowl Champion quarterbacks:
17%: Patrick Mahomes, 2022
10.7%: Matthew Stafford, 2021
12.2%: Tom Brady, 2020
15. The Money Half
In his playoff career, Mahomes is 12-4-1 ATS in the second half. In the Bet Labs database, Mahomes is the best second-half ATS quarterback in the playoffs.
• When Mahomes is a 'dog full game, he is 3-0 against the 2H spread in the playoffs.
• When he is listed as a pick’em or underdog on the 2H spread, Mahomes is 5-1-1 2H ATS in the playoffs, covering by over a field goal per game (only loss vs. Bengals).
• Mahomes has played four playoff games trailing at half. He only lost the second half to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl.
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