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The Bears host the Patriots in an NFL Week 7 primetime clash on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream live on Prime Video.
The Bears are 3-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Bears -3), with an over/under of 50.5. Chicago is a -158 favorite on the moneyline and New England is a +134 underdog.
Continue below for our Patriots vs Bears picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and props
Patriots vs Bears Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Bears Odds
- Patriots vs Bears Moneyline: Patriots +134, Bears -158
- Patriots vs Bears Total: 50.5
- Patriots vs Bears Spread: Patriots +3 (-115), Bears -3 (-105)
TNF odds via FanDuel — for the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 7 Odds & Action Report.
Patriots vs Bears Spread Prediction
Admittedly, the Bears defense is a very difficult evaluation. They seem to be improving as the season progresses and they are starting to generate more pressure by sending additional rushers under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
However, they rank 31st in both yards per play and yards per pass attempt. If they can’t get home with pressure against Drake Maye, it is very likely their secondary will get shredded.
Maye is averaging more than nine yards per pass attempt when dissecting a defense from a clean pocket. With injuries to the offensive line, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels made some adjustments in his personnel usage a week ago — operating with 13 personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends) on nearly 20% of their offensive plays, which was a season high.
- For additional TNF coverage, check out Sean Koerner's Patriots vs Bears betting guide.
This should help alleviate some of the protection issues Maye has faced this season, as will his propensity to scramble. Maye ranks third in the NFL in scramble yardage.
The Bears have been good getting off the field on third down, but the combination of Maye’s rushing ability with Chicago’s susceptibility to explosive passing plays should lead to ample scoring opportunities for New England.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has been excellent to back when he's an underdog. With a defense allowing just 1.7 points per drive (fourth-best), I am very comfortable taking the points with New England on the road.
Pick: Patriots +3 (-115)
Patriots vs Bears Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Bears' injury report coming into Thursday Night Football effectively consists of backup running back Kyle Monangai and a whole bunch of defensive players. This is helpful for the scoring environment for two reasons.
Obviously, missing defensive pieces boosts the other team’s offense. More importantly, the lack of a trusted backup running back – and the return of Caleb Williams – means Chicago will be more pass-heavy than they would be otherwise.
They’ll also be more throw heavy against a Patriots defense that is extremely banged up, with starting cornerback Carlton Davis and backup cornerback Channing Canada both ruled out. Normally a backup being out doesn’t matter, but when you’re already missing the starter, that means the “next man up” has to come from even further down the depth chart.
The bear case (pun intended) for points in this one is the Patriots' beat up offensive line, which will be missing both starting guards for tonight’s contest. That’s definitely an issue, but the Bears' defensive front isn’t especially intimidating, especially with Montez Sweat suspended and some injuries of their own.
My concern here is the Patriots falling behind and struggling to keep pace, but with a spread of just three points that’s relatively unlikely.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-112)
Anytime Touchdown Prediction
While the Patriots rotate WRs around a lot, DeMario Douglas played 59% of snaps last week and I expect similar participation tonight with Romeo Doubs injured.
Douglas is running routes at a decent rate and he's coming off an eight-target game in which he had seven receptions, 86 yards, and a touchdown. He has three touchdowns in his last two games and has a red-zone target in each of his last 4 games.
- Find First Touchdown edges for TNF and every Week 7 game in our expert's TD model
The Bears secondary isn't good and their offense is great, which should keep this game close. I have the true odds on Douglas around +270.
Pick: DeMario Douglas Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320)
DeMario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop
By Chris Prince
DeMario Douglas should continue to play a near full time role for this Patriots team with both Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins on the shelf, and I love that we are getting plus odds on his receptions tonight.
Over the past two weeks, Douglas has hauled in 11 receptions on 13 targets and we saw him get up to a 74.3% route rate with a strong 25% target share last week after Doubs went out.
It's certainly not an easy matchup with Kyler Gordon back manning the slot for the Bears, but with Drake Maye playing at an MVP level again, combined with the additional routes and potential targets, I'm banking on another busy night for Douglas.
Pick: DeMario Douglas Over 3.5 Receptions (+115)
