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The New England Patriots (4-2) take on the Chicago Bears (4-2) tonight in Week 7 Thursday Night Football . Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Bears are favored by -3 on the spread, with the over/under set at 50.5 points. The Bears are -156 favorites on the moneyline and the Patriots are +132 underdogs.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Bears predictions for Thursday Night Football.
My Patriots vs Bears Prediction
- Patriots vs Bears pick: Patriots 1st Half Spread +2.5
My Patriots vs Bears best bet is the Patriots to cover the first half spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Patriots vs Bears Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +132 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -156 |
- Patriots vs Bears Moneyline: Patriots +132, Bears -156
- Patriots vs Bears Total: 50.5
- Patriots vs Bears Spread: Patriots +3 (-115), Bears -3 (-105)
Patriots vs Bears Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Patriots Have the Ball
After a brutal three-game stretch to open the season, Drake Maye has completely flipped the script. He threw for just one touchdown with six interceptions during New England’s 1-2 start, then he followed that with 10 TDs and only one interception during their current three-game winning streak entering Thursday Night Football.
And, as is usually the case with Maye, the schedule explains a lot of it.
The Patriots' first three came against the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars (all above-average defenses). Then came a much softer stretch against the Bills, Raiders, and Jets.
The Bears are probably closer to league average than either extreme, but I still think this is a matchup where Maye can continue playing well.
A.J. Brown returned to a full-time role in Week 6 but had a brutal game, with just three catches on 10 targets and a couple of bad drops. I wouldn't call myself a Brown apologist, but I expect his connection with Maye to improve.
Remember, the former Eagle has played only two games with his new team and new QB. Maye/Brown might simply need a few games to really start clicking — I’ll leave it to the shouty network shows to dissect that relationship to no end.
The much more important issue for actually handicapping this game is the cluster of injuries along New England’s offensive line.
LG Alijah Vera-Tucker and RG Ben Brown have already been ruled out, while RT Morgan Moses got in a limited practice and is questionable. That sounds ugly on the surface, but I think it’s worth going one layer deeper before assuming the Patriots offense is about to collapse.
Matt Pryor should fill one of the guard spots. He’s bounced around the league for eight seasons but has generally been fine when asked to start — he allowed just one pressure on 24 dropbacks last week.
G Walter Rouse is the bigger concern. He’s allowed four pressures on 26 dropbacks this season — that’s the spot I’d expect Chicago to attack.
If Moses can’t go, New England also has first-round pick Caleb Lomu ready to step in at tackle. That’s essentially why they drafted him with Moses potentially departing after this season, plus Lomu has been excellent in limited work, allowing just three pressures on 76 dropbacks.
Even if Moses plays, Lomu could still factor into the game plan. New England has already used him as an inline TE/sixth offensive lineman for 27 snaps this season, and I think all these injuries could push the Patriots even further toward heavy personnel.
They used 3-TE personnel on a season-high 19% of their snaps last week, and that happens to be one of the better ways to attack the Bears, who have allowed 13.9 yards per pass attempt with four TDs and no interceptions against multiple-TE sets this season.
While the OL injuries are obviously a concern, they could also nudge Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels toward a game plan that naturally helps protect those backups while attacking an area Chicago has struggled to defend.
The Bears rank 13th in pressure rate and third in blitz rate, so on paper they’re certainly capable of testing a banged-up line. But they have issues up front too.
Dayo Odeyingbo is on injured reserve, Montez Sweat is serving a suspension and starting LB T.J. Edwards looks likely to miss a second straight game. Two of Chicago’s top four players in pressures generated are unavailable.
Maye also gives New England margin for error because he can extend plays and has been difficult to take down. He’s taken a sack on just 12% of his pressured dropbacks, the eighth-lowest mark among qualified QBs.
That becomes especially interesting against a Bears defense allowing a league-high 8.2 yards per pass play when the QB holds the ball for 2.5+ seconds.
Again, the Patriots' offensive line situation matters and I’m not hand-waving that away, but when I look at the actual replacements, Chicago own missing pass rushers, Maye’s ability to avoid sacks and the possibility that New England leans into heavier TE personnel, I don’t think the injuries are quite the disaster the surface-level version of this matchup might suggest.
When the Bears Have the Ball
Caleb Williams returned last week after missing three games with the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 2 and immediately gave Chicago’s offense a boost in a 31-23 win over Atlanta.
But there were a couple things that stood out…
Williams rushed for only four yards and took four sacks. That matters because one of his biggest strengths under head coach Ben Johnson has been the ability to create with his legs while also avoiding sacks.
Last week, Williams posted a 24% pressure-to-sack rate, and between that and the lack of rushing production, I’m not convinced he’s 100% over the hamstring injury quite yet.
Maybe it was simply rust after the three-game absence. Either way, on a short week it’s tough for me to assume he suddenly gets all of that mobility back.
If anything, it may force Williams to play more within structure, which probably isn’t the worst thing for his development in Johnson’s offense.
The matchup also gets tougher with CB Christian Gonzalez back for New England. Chicago has enough weapons that Gonzalez can’t just erase the entire passing game by himself, but having a shutdown corner back obviously gives the Patriots more flexibility with how they defend everyone else.
I’m also interested in the run game.
Kyle Monangai will miss another game, and D'Andre Swift has struggled enough without him that Roschon Johnson has started carving out a bigger role.
Monangai gives the Bears an element I think they’ll miss against a Patriots defense that is more vulnerable on the ground than through the air.
While I think Chicago has plenty of ways to move the ball, I’m not sure we immediately get the fully unleashed version of this offense with Williams still coming off the hamstring injury and Monangai unavailable.
Patriots vs Bears Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’m pretty much in line with the full-game market — the Patriots around +3 and the total around 50.5 both make sense to me.
The more interesting angle is isolating New England in the first half.
There isn’t one magical stat driving this. It’s more about how I think the first half sets up compared to the second.
The Patriots’ OL injuries are the biggest concern, but I think they’re much better equipped to mask those issues early with scripting, heavy personnel and a game plan designed around the backups.
That’s where Josh McDaniels factors into this for me.
Drake Maye has averaged 0.50 EPA per dropback on opening drives this season — second-highest in the league — despite being pressured on 55% of those dropbacks. He still hasn’t been sacked on an opening drive.
Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed 7.0 yards per play on opening drives, second-worst in the league.
We’re dealing with tiny samples when we start talking about opening drives, so I’m not pretending those numbers are predictive by themselves. But I think they fit the broader idea that McDaniels has consistently been excellent at scripting the beginning of games.
Great OC. Disaster HC. I think we’ve gathered enough evidence on that front.
The fact that New England has already been able to function so well early despite Maye facing a ton of pressure is especially relevant here. If the OL injuries create problems, I think those problems are more likely to become increasingly difficult to hide as the game goes on.
That’s one reason I prefer the first half.
There’s also been a broader trend under Mike Vrabel/McDaniels. New England went 14-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in the first half last season and is 5-1 ATS in the first half this year.
New England has been very good in the scripted portion of games, while Chicago has often been at its best once things become a little more chaotic.
Last season, the Bears were 8-11 ATS in the first half but 13-6 ATS in the second half. Caleb Williams has historically been at his most dangerous when a play breaks down and he starts creating outside structure.
Chicago is already 2-1 ATS in the first half in his three starts this season, and I fully expect him to improve in Year 2 playing in Ben Johnson’s offense, so I’m not treating last year’s splits as some permanent trait either.
- Find all the betting edges for Week 7 in our NFL Luck Dashboard
But I do think the basic dynamic could show up here.
Early on, New England gets the benefit of McDaniels’ script, can lean into heavy personnel, and has a better chance to hide the weakened OL.
As the game progresses, Chicago gets more opportunities to adjust, Williams gets more chances to create outside structure and the New England’s lack of OL depth becomes more dangerous. If the Patriots lose another lineman in-game, that obviously exacerbates the problem.
That risk is naturally lower in the first half.
I’m basically neutral on the full-game spread and I think the matchup gives New England a better chance to hang around early than the market is giving them credit for.
Patriots 1H +2.5 is the play for now. I’m also watching the +3.5 price, which is currently around -144. If that price improves enough throughout the day, I may pay up for the extra point.
Either way, I want my exposure on New England in the first half rather than the full game.
Pick: Patriots 1st Half Spread +2.5
