NFL Week 7 Luck Rankings Dashboard: Edges for Games, INTs, Sacks, FGs, More

Welcome to the Action Network NFL Luck Rankings dashboard for Week 7!

This dashboard will be updated weekly throughout the NFL season to provide you a full look into many — but not all — of the luck elements that go into Action Network's Luck Rankings.

I say not all, because this Luck Dashboard is focused on the most common luck elements that are either:

1. Out of a team's control, or
2. Above or below the predictable level of a player or team's performance

For example, we can't expect a kicker to make every single kick forever. There's some natural kicking performance level that a kicker could exceed or fail to meet on any given week that depends on a plethora of factors.

So when I talk about kicking luck, I'm not just looking at opposing kicking luck, where a team has almost no control over whether the other team's kicker makes a kick, but also the kicker's own luck above or below his own performance level.

And this expected performance level can move as the kicker's performance level changes.

To get the most out of these dashboards, make sure you use the following features:

1. Dropdowns: Click on a team or table element and a dropdown will appear with a more in-depth breakdown
2. Backup mode: For teams that have had multiple QBs play so far this year, toggle backup mode on in the QB INT and QB Sack tables to see the backup QB's luck and projection should they become the starter that week.
3. Bye weeks toggle: Uncheck "hide byes" if you want to see a players stats even if they are on a bye week (they of course won't have a projection).
4. WP/EP mode: WP mode is for win probability. Fumbles in high-leverage situations add or take away win probability more in late-game situations when it's close. But in terms of expected points — EP mode — it would be a similar number of expected points regardless of game situation.
5. Sorting: Click a column header to sort the table by that column's values
6. Night mode: Toggle night mode on or off both on mobile and desktop.
7. Over/Under percentages: For tabs with a projection (QB INT, QB sacks, Kickers), there are dropdowns to choose a market line over or under, and an associated percentage will display with it.
8. Hyperlinks: Click a team name to go to the team page, or in some of the clickable dropdowns there are hyperlinks to other pages in the dashboard.
9. Team colors: If you have a favorite NFL team, you can choose theme in the "theme" dropdown and click their helmet once to have the table header display in their colors. In dark mode, you can also click a second time for the full table, not just the headers, to display in their colors.

Also, there are two new tabs this week.

1. RATINGS: This has my model's power ratings for each team. The column "POWER" is the fully-healthy version of the team's power rating (other than QB which is using the current QB), and the "POWER WK X" is specific to the current week with adjustments to each team for injuries.
2. MODEL: This is my model's predicted spread and total for each game. The model uses schedule-adjusted Expected Scores which powers the Luck Rankings, and adjusts for injuries and weather.

I've also moved one feature this week and going forward.

1. 1st TD Model: This will now be its own dashboard and piece coming out on Thursday before TNF and will be updated daily, with more frequent updates when inactives are announced before each game. The 1st TD Model is on a roll and quite popular, so we wanted to break it out into its own featured dashboard and article!

So here is the NFL Luck Rankings Dashboard for Week 7. I'm happy to receive any feedback about bugs, improvements, or things you'd like to see on it going forward!

NFL Luck Rankings Dashboard