NFL Super Bowl Futures: Contender Rankings, Odds and Best Bets Before Week 7

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We are one-third of the way through the NFL season, and it has officially become a league of haves and have-nots. There are only two 3-3 teams left entering Week 7, the fewest since 2006.

Right now, I have exactly 13 teams with at least a 5% chance of making it to the Super Bowl.

Let’s zoom out, rank those 13 teams from most likely to least likely to get there, and find the futures value on the board.

Ranking the 13 NFL Teams Most Likely to Make the Super Bowl

Tier I — The Towering NFC Favorite (over 35% likely)

1. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers offense got anything it wanted in the first half against the Commanders on Monday night. Nine plays for 64 yards and a touchdown. Eight plays for 72 yards and a touchdown. Seven plays for 66 yards before a rare Christian McCaffrey fumble. Fourteen plays for 69 yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers were up 20-3 at the half, and honestly, it could have been any score they wanted. This is by far the best team in the league right now — No. 1 in offensive DVOA and No. 3 in defensive DVOA. The defense continues to surprise, allowing the fewest explosive plays in the entire NFL.

Despite the numbers, everyone seems to be shrugging off the 49ers because of injuries and substations, but I'm not sure folks have taken into account just how unbelievable a position they are in.

With both the Seahawks and the Rams losing in Week 6, the 49ers are up 3.5 and 4.5 games in the division, respectively. FTN has them at 95% to win the division, an overwhelming favorite far ahead of any other team in the league.

That gives San Francisco a 92% chance for a top-two seed in the watered-down NFC and a 74% chance for the 1-seed. The 49ers are projected for 14 wins — the next highest is Minnesota at 11. That is a massive cushion.

A 1-seed means a bye and rest, and they are about to get some of that right now with a game at Atlanta followed by a well-timed bye week.

The 49ers should honestly be mostly healthy after that. Nick Bosa, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, DeMarcus Robinson, Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, and Marcus Sigle are all expected back soon. They just survived their rough injury stretch, and now they have a top-five easiest schedule left by DVOA.

San Francisco is the clear favorite for the 1-seed, and grabbing them to win the NFC at 25% on Kalshi implies massive value. In the NFC, it's San Francisco versus the field for me, close to a coin flip.

If the 49ers get the 1-seed, they get a bye, and then they're big home favorites, maybe against an NFC South or East team. Now you've got the home favorites in the in the NFC Championship Game — and you're gonna want that +300 moneyline ticket in your pocket.

Verdict: 49ers to win NFC at 25% (+300 at Kalshi)

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Tier II — Well, This Feels Familiar (20-30% likely)

2. Buffalo Bills | 3. Kansas City Chiefs

Already, you can see a big difference between the conferences.

We don't have one towering giant in the AFC. We have two: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

We've seen this movie many times before. The Chiefs are 5-0 coming off their bye, and the Bills are 5-1 heading into theirs. Buffalo just survived its rough scheduling start, while Kansas City's schedule is about to get tougher.

The Bills defense is the weakest unit between teams by far, but their offense is the strongest, especially given the injuries to the Chiefs' receiving corps.

Still, neither of these teams is in quite as good a position as the 49ers.

Buffalo is only one game up on the Patriots (who beat them head-to-head), and Kansas City is one win up on the Broncos (though the Chiefs hold the head-to-head tiebreaker). The Bills and Chiefs have each other to deal with, plus the rest of the AFC competition.

There is no rush to invest right now at their peak. There will be chances to buy later.

Combined, these teams have 65% odds for the AFC 1-seed at FTN. The road to the Super Bowl still runs through Allen or Mahomes, and you might have to beat both of them.

Verdict: Wait to buy later.

Tier III — The Most Likely Underdogs (8-10% likely)

4. Minnesota Vikings | 5. Detroit Lions | 6. New England Patriots | 7. Jacksonville Jaguars

Notice the huge drop in chances after Tier II.

By my math, there's around a 25% chance the Super Bowl is either 49ers vs. Chiefs or 49ers vs. Bills, and a 75% chance we get at least one of those three teams in the finale.

If we do get a surprise, it's most likely coming from this tier. These teams largely share common traits: strong starts despite missing key players, good reasons to believe they'll improve going forward, and soft, winnable schedules ahead.

I am as surprised as anyone to have the Vikings at No. 4, but it’s just basic logic. At 5-0, they are the clear NFC North favorites, making them the last favorite for a top-two seed in the weaker conference.

Minnesota boasts the No. 1 defense and No. 1 special teams by DVOA, but the offense has been mostly terrible.

But I’m honestly not worried about the offense despite the poor metrics. The Vikings have been without Kyler Murray (two games), Justin Jefferson (two games), Jordan Mason (four games), Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Jauan Jennings at various points this season. Let's see what they look like healthy after a bye week and real time to practice together.

If someone catches the Vikings in the North, it's most likely the Lions.

You don't even have to think Detroit is the better team — their schedule is just so incredibly nice. Detroit is struggling on defense, but it faces the softest remaining offensive schedule in the league.

Coming off the bye, the Lions will get center Cade Mays and safety Brian Branch back, and Branch changes everything for this defense.

Since 2023, the Lions ranked 30th in defensive success rate without Branch, but third with him, per TruMedia. Their young offensive line is playing well, and they’re up to fourth in my power ratings just in time for big home games against Green Bay and Minnesota.

This team has a real shot to make the Super Bowl, though I prefer betting the NFC Championship Game Qualifier at 12%. That’s one less game you have to win with that defense.

The Patriots and Jaguars are also north of 75% to make the playoffs, holding the fourth and first easiest remaining schedules by DVOA. Both have young quarterbacks in Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence making the leap along with top-10 defenses.

I like the Jaguars slightly better as a team because of their coaching and versatility, but the Patriots have a better path to a top-two seed because of their head-to-head win over the Bills. But neither has much value in these markets right now.

Verdict: NFC Championship Game Qualifiers: Lions 12% (+733 at Polymarket)

Tier IV — A Lot Still Has to Go Right (6-7% likely)

8. Baltimore Ravens | 9. Houston Texans | 10. Chicago Bears | 11. Cincinnati Bengals

This isn't a massive drop from the last group — think of it more like Tier 3B — but these teams have bigger flaws and deeper reasons for concern.

The Ravens' betting odds to win the conference technically put them up in the Bills/Chiefs tier (+520 at DraftKings, implied 16%), but I have them closer to 7%. That is outlandish and totally wrong — it's the worst price on the board.

Baltimore just gave away the Browns game, and while it's not the end of the world to lose a game without Lamar Jackson, that loss is still incredibly damaging for their win projection. The entire AFC North is above .500, meaning lots of tough, tight games remain.

The Ravens have blown two big leads and lost tight fourth-quarter games — same old Ravens. They've had the second-easiest schedule so far, but now face the toughest remaining schedule going forward, and that starts right now with Cincinnati off a bye, at Buffalo off a bye, and then Jacksonville on TNF soon after a bye.

Play the Ravens game-to-game if you like, but stay away from their futures for now.

The Texans had to win on Sunday in London, and they did it, beating the Jaguars 34-31. That felt like a playoff game, even AFC Championship Game caliber.

The Texans posted 7.2 yards per play against a really good defense, C.J. Stroud is balling, and they are a top-five passing offense by DVOA. Now they are just 1.5 games back of Jacksonville in the division, with the Colts and Titans dead in the water.

Houston's next four games are against the Giants, Chargers, Browns, and Colts. That gets you to 6-4 against the second-easiest remaining schedule by DVOA. At +1700 at DraftKings to win the AFC (5.6% implied), the Texans have some value.

This is a clear top-10 team now right back in the mix. I prefer betting the AFC Championship Game Qualifier at 4% so we don't have to win that final road game against Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. I have Houston closer to 15% at making that game.

The Bears and Bengals have similar profiles: all offense, not much defense, and both in loaded divisions. That likely means three road games to reach the Super Bowl.

Dennis Allen is doing work for Chicago's defense, and getting Kyler Gordon back is huge, but I'm not seeing value for a Super Bowl trip for either team. If you want to invest in Cincinnati, look toward the regular season, like a Joe Burrow MVP ticket.

Verdict: AFC Championship Game Qualifiers: Texans 4% (+2400 at Polymarket)

Tier V — Last Season Is a Distant Memory (5% likely)

12. Los Angeles Rams | 13. Seattle Seahawks

It's crazy how fast we got here, but I have both of these teams down to about a 5% chance each just to make the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks are barely above 50% to make the playoffs, and the Rams are now below that threshold.

It's FINALLY time to panic on the Rams. They just lost as 13.5-point home favorites to an Arizona team that kicked six field goals, the biggest division upset in the NFL since Carolina beat Tom Brady’s Bucs in 2022.

Special teams cost the Rams again. Their kicker got injured, and Arizona gained a 46% win probability advantage just on special teams.

The Cardinals now have more wins at SoFi Stadium this year (2) than the Rams and Chargers combined (1). This was the easiest win on the schedule, dropping L.A.'s playoff odds from 67% to 43%.

Per Doug Clawson, the Rams are the fifth Super Bowl favorite in the last five decades to have a losing record through six games. Two of those four teams missed the playoffs entirely, and two others each won a single wildcard playoff game.

Now add the catastrophic Monday injury news: Davante Adams is out 6-10 weeks with a hamstring injury, Kobie Turner is out 4-6 weeks with a groin injury, and Poona Ford is out for the season.

Ford was a top-5 defensive lineman by PFF grade the last two years, and Turner has been top-16 his entire career. Behind Puka Nacua, the Rams' wideouts are now Konata Mumpfield, Jordan Whittington, and Tutu Atwell.

Those injuries drop the Rams outside the top five offenses and outside the top 10 defenses, representing a downgrade in win probability about 5% per game. That may not seem like much, but those percentages add up over 11 more games.

The Rams likely need to go 7-4 or 8-3 down the stretch to make the playoffs, and by that win probability drop, the odds of that just dropped by 25%. LA is not a bad team. The Rams are +644 in yardage differential on the season, best in the NFL — though that conveniently ignores special teams, of course.

Neither offense in this tier looks quite right. Both the Rams and the Seahawks rank in the bottom half of the league in explosives for both the run and pass, a big drop from last season.

The division is gone with San Francisco sitting at 95%, meaning it's a brutal road to January and a near impossible path to February. These teams play each other twice in the final three weeks, and that could end up for one spot — maybe even the NFC 7-seed and a terrible path.

The Rams and Seahawks are ludicrously overpriced right now at +650 and +700 to win the NFC, second and third highest in the conference. Their terrible odds imply serious value elsewhere in the conference.

Verdict: Wait to bet Rams "No" on playoffs/division until after this next softer month, and look for value elsewhere in the NFC

Brandon's Futures Placed in This Article

• 49ers to win NFC at 25%: +300 (Kalshi)
• NFC Championship Game Qualifiers: Lions 12%, or +733 (Polymarket)
• AFC Championship Game Qualifiers: Texans 4%, or +2400 (Polymarket)