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Week 7 of the NFL season starts with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
Our player props for Thursday Night Football tonight target D'Andre Swift, AJ Brown and Eli Raridon.
Let's dive into our Patriots vs Bears player props for Thursday night.
Patriots vs Bears Player Props
- D’Andre Swift Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Bet365)
- AJ Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+124, DraftKings)
- AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown (+145, BetMGM)
- Eli Raridon Anytime Touchdown (+600, BetMGM)
Patriots vs Bears Prop Picks, Preview
D'Andre Swift Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
We’ve seen how important running backs are to Ben Johnson’s system for the Bears, but one thing that needs to be considered here is what D’Andre Swift offers as a pass catcher.
Swift's averaged 3.6 targets per game this season — that’s ramped up over the past two weeks with four catches and five targets in each game.
In those two games, he’s had 30 and 26 yards, and last week his five targets actually ranked third on the team, behind only Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.
That matters because the Patriots have given up the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs, an average of 39.3 per game, at an average of 8.7 yards per catch. Even a modest workload here gives Swift a good chance of hitting that mark.
Pick: D'Andre Swift Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115, bet365)
A.J. Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+125)
In his first game this season, A.J. Brown got four targets early against the Seahawks before getting injured. After missing four games, we saw Brown return in Week 6 for an underwhelming performance.
He only made three catches for 27 yards and made some bad drops — but what really matters is how he was used.
The Patriots didn’t try and ease Brown back in against the Jets — he got serious work immediately. He had 10 targets, had a 33% target share, and ran routes on 91% of Drake Maye’s dropbacks.
This is a guy that they are very clearly trying to get the ball and with volume, comes opportunity.
Pick: A.J. Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+125, DraftKings)
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+145)
In addition to taking Brown to cover his receptions line, I’m also having a sprinkle on him to find the end zone.
Despite missing four games, Brown's has just two fewer red-zone targets than team leaders Romeo Doubs and Hunter Henry (5). Brown also should have scored last week, were it not for a poor drop.
Pick: A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+145 at BetMGM)
Eli Raridon Anytime Touchdown (+600)
In addition to Brown, I’m also putting in a small bet on Patriots tight end Eli Raridon to find the end zone.
What really stands out is how often the rookie Raridon is on the field, and how much the Pats are favoring 13 personnel. Last week, the Patriots ran it on 19% of their plays — up 4.5% from the week before — while not using it once in the month beforehand.
With TEs on the field more, I want to be backing one of them to find the end zone.
Hunter Henry is the obvious choice and is tied for the most red-zone targets (5) on the Patriots, but that comes at a cost and his odds are less than half that of the rookie.
Meanwhile, Raridon only has one fewer touchdown and red-zone target than Henry despite missing a game. I wouldn’t recommend a big stake on this anytime TD, but it’s a strong value play.
Pick: Eli Raridon Anytime Touchdown (+600 at BetMGM)
Patriots vs Bears Prop Bets
- D’Andre Swift Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Bet365)
- AJ Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+124, DraftKings)
- AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown (+145, BetMGM)
- Eli Raridon Anytime Touchdown (+600, BetMGM)
