Patriots vs. Raiders Odds, Picks, Predictions

If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.

The clash between the Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) and the New England Patriots (2-2) at Gillette Stadium is shaping up to be a fascinating battle of opposing trends, pitting Las Vegas’s high-powered offense against the defensive discipline of the Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel. While the Patriots enter as heavy favorites on Kalshi, this matchup carries plenty of volatility and could deliver a few surprises ahead.

Before we dive in, don't forget to download the Action Network App to keep track of the best NFL props and picks.

Let's get into my Raiders vs. Patriots prediction and my NFL predictions for Week 5.

The New England Patriots open as 3.5-point home favorites. Laying points on a New England team averaging under 17 points per game carries inherent risk, but Mike Vrabel’s squad is solid at controlling the game at Gillette Stadium.

The key structural angle for covering the spread lies in New England's ground attack with Rhamondre Stevenson. If the Patriots can establish early positive gains on first down, they can force Las Vegas into predictable passing situations, allowing their pass rush to generate pressure.

Backing the Patriots at -3.5 is a solid position, but it carries more risk than its 50-cent share price suggests.

The moneyline is completely logical if we take into account New England’s strong historical record when playing as home favorites. However, the Raiders present a major wildcard. Las Vegas possesses higher top-end talent at skill positions and has demonstrated the ability to win shootout scenarios, like their 35-27 victory over the Saints. Again, backing the Patriots is the logical approach, but expect a difficult, highly physical game.

My favorite position for this game is focusing on Totals.

The game total is set at 44.5 points, reflecting a collision between high-octane offense and slow-paced defense. However, I believe the game will play out as a much more chaotic, higher-scoring affair. Targeting Over 46.5 Points at 46 cents sounds perfect to me.

My Pick: Over 46.5 Points

NFL Week 5 Picks

The Las Vegas Raiders started the season strong, stringing together convincing victories against the Dolphins (27-13), Chargers (26-14), and Saints (35-27). However, they are coming off their first stumble in a tight 30-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.

Kirk Cousins has spearheaded Las Vegas's high-powered offense, eclipsing the 1,000-passing-yard milestone through four weeks. His go-to target remains tight end Brock Bowers, who, alongside wide receiver Tre Tucker, provides dynamic playmaking on intermediate and deep passes.

The Raiders rank among the top passing offenses in the league, averaging 28.8 points per game, a pace that could pose serious problems for an inconsistent team like the Patriots.

The home squad has experienced an up-and-down start defined by low-scoring affairs, averaging just 16.2 points per contest. After falling to the Jaguars in Week 3, they bounced back with a valuable road win against the Buffalo Bills, proving that their defense and run game can compete against high-caliber opponents.

An intriguing player to keep an eye on is TreVeyon Henderson, particularly in the Anytime Touchdown market. The Patriots running back has recorded just one touchdown so far this season, but this matchup could pave the way for him to find the end zone again. His Yes shares are trading at 50 cents, which isn't cheap, but it remains a solid position nonetheless.

Continuing in the touchdown market, Brock Bowers stands out as a name you must keep in your radar. The Raiders tight end remains Kirk Cousins’ primary target, with 4 touchdowns in his last 5 games and a high target share in the red zone.

His Yes shares for 1 touchdown are trading at 39 cents, an offer that is hard to pass up. At the same time, targeting 90+ receiving yards makes for a great combination if you expect Bowers to have a big game on Sunday.

Pick: TreVeyon Henderson 1 Touchdown. Brock Bowers 1 Touchdown, 90+ Receiving Yards. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS is scheduled for SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11 1:00 p.m. ET, live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.. The game is live on CBS.