The tenth week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 10, including picks for Panthers vs. Saints, Chiefs vs Falcons, Jaguars vs Titans.
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NFL Player Props — Week 10
- Bryce Young Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Jahan Dotson Under 2.5 Receptions (-176 at DraftKings)
- Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-105 at bet365; -111 at BetMGM)
Bryce Young Rushing Yards
We hit Bryce Young's over last week, and I'm going right back to the well with an even better matchup for Young this week against New Orleans.
The Saints allow the most scrambles in the league when adjusting for the QB faced, both in an absolute and relative basis. In absolute terms, they allow a 4% scramble rate over expected and in a relative sense, QBs more than double their normal scramble count against the saints.
Young has also faced a relatively stingy schedule despite facing a generous Broncos defense last week when it comes to QB rushing, which is depressing Young's rushing numbers a bit over all. You can see that from him jumping from 4.9 yards per game heading into last week to 5.9 yards per game just one week later.
Young is on the road, indoors, and an underdog, so there should be plenty of dropbacks for him to scramble on, especially given the Saints' up-tempo play has led to opponents averaging three plays more per game than they normally run.
I'm projecting Young for 13.3 yards with a median of 10, clearing 7.5 around 61% of the time
Pick: Bryce Young Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Jahan Dotson Under Receptions
I know people don’t love laying big minus numbers, but I’m showing a ton of value on this market so I figured it’s worth a blurb.
The Chiefs have been the No. 1 defense in preventing opportunity to outside WRs, allowing a Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) of 26.6%.
While you might think that would dock Drake London, he drifts into the slot more than Dotson does. Additionally, outside WR1s against the Chiefs have actually held their own compared to WR2s who have struggled to hit their mark.
The outside WR2 in offenses against the Chiefs have a WOPR around 85% of their normal opportunity, meaning Dotson is the guy that bears the brunt of the matchup factors.
The reason I’m going with receptions here instead of yards is that Dotson is a deep ball threat (aDOT of 15.6), so he could clear his yardage on just two catches.
While the Chiefs do allow the second-lowest aDOT in the league, that’s because they funnel passes over the middle and in the backfield. Out wide, the Chiefs allow the 10th-highest target depth in the league.
The deep balls could hurt the yardage, but those are also the ones less likely to be caught, which is why I have his expected catch rate at just 55% for this game.
I have Dotson projected for 1.8 catches with around a 72% chance to stay under 2.5 catches, which is more like -260 as fair odds.
Pick: Jahan Dotson Under 2.5 Receptions (-176 at DraftKings)
Jakobi Meyers Receptions
Jakobi Meyers' production in terms of targets and receptions this season has been more defense dependent than game script dependent.
This season, he’s faced five defenses that rank inside the bottom nine in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) to outside WRs, and in those games he had a maximum of four targets, an average of 2.6 targets. Those targets turned into a maximum of three receptions with an average of 2.0.
But against the other three defenses, he averaged eight targets per game and 5.3 receptions per game despite two of the three games resulting in Jaguars wins by at least three possessions or more.
The game script doesn’t worry me here and Tennessee ranks No. 1 in WOPR to outside WRs.
This is a ladderable spot.
Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-105)
