Best NFL Week 4 Player Props: Saquon Barkley Over/Under 55.5 Receiving Yards
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saquon Barkley
- We use the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool to highlight five props with betting value in Week 4.
- This piece will analyze the following props: RB James White's receptions, WR Josh Gordon's receiving yards, RB Saquon Barkley's receiving yards, WR Michael Gallup's receiving yards and QB Matt Ryan's passing touchdowns.
Player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so it’s not as imperative for the sportsbooks to hang accurate lines.
This is where the FantasyLabs’ Player Props Tool comes in handy.
We take each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverage them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a grade, with 10 being the absolute best.
Our Props Tool has been killing it to start the season, with props graded a 10 covering at a 60.0% clip (60-36) against the closing number.
Here’s a sampling of five props offering betting value according to our tool.
>> Check out the FantasyLabs Prop Tool to see all of the NFL Week 4 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 10 a.m. ET on Sunday.
Patriots RB James White
The pick: Over 3.5 receptions
Rex Burkhead joined Jeremy Hill on injured reserve this week, so things are looking thin for this Patriots backfield in Week 4.
One data point I am paying attention to is pass protection. White is the 11th-highest graded running back in that category this season, whereas Sony Michel is merely 31st.
So it is pretty clear who will continue to see the majority of the usage in passing situations.
White is already averaging 4.7 receptions per game this season, so this prop seems pretty safe even after taking into consideration the juice.
Patriots WR Josh Gordon
The pick: Under 40.5 receiving yards (-120 @ Sportsbook.com)
The addition of Gordon will probably have more impact on Rob Gronkowski’s numbers this week than anything, with the former Browns’ field-stretcher giving Brady more space to work in the short-to-intermediate game.
Miami ranks second-best in the league this year at defending deep passes of 15 or more yards, per Football Outsiders. Gordon boasts a 17.3 yards per reception in his polarizing career.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley
The pick: Under 55.5 receiving yards (-115 @ Sportsbook.com)
Barkley is locked into a solid role in the passing game, but his massive target games have likely been heavily skewed by defensive scheme.
For example, the Cowboys’ zone looks took away the short-intermediate game for the Giants wide receivers in Week 3, which opened the door for a big game from Barkley through the air out of the backfield.
He saw a more reasonable five targets last week against Houston’s man coverage unit, as expected, and we could see a lot of the same this week against New Orleans, which runs a similar system on defense.
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup
The pick: Over 16.5 receiving yards
Terrance Williams will be inactive Sunday, so recently re-signed Brice Butler is likely to be active.
That said, despite the Cowboys’ lackluster passing attack, the team will continue to use a wide-receiver-by-committee approach.
Gallup is a third-round pick and was a preseason star, so it’s reasonable to believe he could build on his four targets last week and smash this prop as a solid value bet.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan
The pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
The Bengals have a ferocious pass rush, but they have also allowed an average of 2.0 passing touchdowns per game over the first three weeks, tied for 11th-most in the NFL.
Placing a bet on a Steve Sarkisian-led offense never gives you the warm and fuzzies, but in the short term, it appears the Falcons have turned the corner on their former red-zone inefficiencies.