Raheem Mostert Prop Bets, Odds & Picks for Super Bowl 54

Credit:

Randy Vazquez/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert (31).

Action Network Staff

Feb 02, 2020, 12:00 PM EST

Looking for Raheem Mostert prop bets ahead of Super Bowl 54? We’ve got you covered.

Find an expert pick as well as odds on all of Mostert’s props at FanDuel below.

Raheem Mostert Prop Bet Picks

Sean Koerner: Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Mostert is a bit tricky to project given that we don’t know Tevin Coleman’s status for Sunday quite yet. Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC title game and it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to play in the Super Bowl, if at all. But this prop is offering enough value that it likely won’t matter whether Coleman plays or is ruled out.

I have Mostert projected for 1.9 receptions and a 7.8 yards per reception rate. You might be thinking, “If 1.9 multiplied by 7.8 equals 14.8 yards, how is that screaming value on the under 12.5?”

Well, this prop is low enough that it’s easy to break down a few better ways to analyze this market.

Mostert has a 15.6% chance of ending with zero catches — that’s an instant win scenario as he’ll have zero yards.
There’s a 44.5% chance he’ll finish with one or zero catches. And the odds of just one reception being fewer than 12.5 yards would be about 83%, which would bring his overall odds of getting fewer than 12.5 yards on one or zero receptions to 52.9%
Even still, there are plenty of scenarios in which he can catch two passes and still finish with fewer than 12.5 yards. He would finish with under 12.5 yards with exactly two receptions 47% of the time.

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We have a lot of cushion with this prop, and it’s really not until he catches three or more passes that this bet becomes a loser. Mostert really hasn’t shown the underlying usage as a pass-catching back to be too concerned with the chances of three or more catches happening (28.5%) to be scared away by this number.

Every yard matters in a market like this — a line of 10.5 would see the chances of the under hitting fall to 63.4%. That’s why it’s critical to make sure you are getting the best number(s).

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]