Our Experts’ Favorite Super Bowl 54 Cross-Sport Props
Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Zion Williamson
The betting offerings for the Super Bowl are vast, and they include cross-sport props, where you can wager on a prop in the Super Bowl vs. a prop in golf, tennis, hockey, basketball, etc.
Our experts give their favorites of the weekend below.
Matt Moore: First half Chiefs-49ers total -4.5 vs. Zion Williamson total points
Williamson is on a minutes restriction and is still in a usage battle with a lot of other good players on the Pels. He scored 25 vs. the Grizzlies, but Memphis was without Jaren Jackson Jr. The Rockets aren’t a great defensive team, but I can’t see him putting up 20-plus. Meanwhile, I think there’s likely a turnover in the first half of Chiefs-Niners.
Jimmy Garoppolo threw 14 picks this season, and the Niners’ cover-3 is going to dare Patrick Mahomes to throw underneath. Mahomes has a tendency to get frustrated and go for the big play, which could set up a pick.
The Chiefs defense is opportunistic. I don’t think a pick-6 is out of the question in the first half, meaning we just need two other touchdowns. It might be tight given that I’m expecting a long drive from the Niners bridging the first and second quarters, but the Chiefs score so fast I think we’re in good shape.
THE PICK: First half Chiefs-49ers total
Wob: Suns-Bucks +75.5 total points vs. Patrick Mahomes passing yards
Hello there, sports fans. The Milwaukee Bucks are currently in the midst of a I-lost-track-game streak in which they score at least 100 points before the final buzzer. As for the Suns … they can score in bunches, too, but let me be polite about their defense … it’s not great.
This game is going to have a total in the mid-to-high 200s for a reason. That’s because they’re going to score 230 total points. If we get to that number, that means Mahomes has to throw for 306 yards to beat us.
This is a number that feels like it can be broken at any time by a man of his prowess, but the 49ers defense is just too solid to give up one of those nuclear plays. You’re not dinking and dunking to 306. Sign me up.
THE PICK: Suns-Bucks +75.5 total points
Mike Randle: Illinois-Iowa total points vs. 49ers rushing yards
Playing in Carver Hawkeye Arena means an uptempo game with Iowa All-American candidate Luka Garza (23 PPG) leading the way. Iowa has reached 85 points or more in two of its past three Big 10 home games and buried the Fighting Illini 95-71 last year.
This year’s Illinois team is much more talented, ranking 38th overall in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Illini have reached 70 or more points in two of their past three conference road games, including a 71-70 win at snail-paced Wisconsin.
San Francisco averaged 159 rushing yards per game on the season, but I expect Kansas City to limit the 49ers’ strength, as is typical in Super Bowls. I’ll take the combined points of two strong Big 10 teams over the 49ers rushing attack in a projected high-scoring Super Bowl 54.
THE PICK: Illinois-Iowa total points
Jason Sobel: Patrick Mahomes (KC) passing yards vs. winning score of Waste Management Phoenix Open
Most golf-related Super Bowl props are head-to-head: the final round vs. the big game for a total number. Examples include Travis Kelce’s receiving yards (-2.5) against Dustin Johnson’s final-round score in Saudi Arabia or Emmanuel Sanders’ total receptions against Jon Rahm’s total number of birdies (-0.5) in the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Those are fine — and sure, if you’re studying each sport, you can find an edge somewhere.
What I like about the prop I’ve picked, though, is that we’ve already watched two rounds in Phoenix and should have a good idea of where that side of the prop will land. J.B. Holmes currently leads at 13-under, and with similar weather conditions for the final two rounds, we shouldn’t expect double that number; it should take a score of somewhere in the 18- or 20-under range to win this golf tournament.
With TPC Scottsdale playing as a par-71, that means a four-day total of 264-266.
In the 15 regular season and playoff games in which Mahomes played from start to finish this season, he surpassed this number on all but 11 occasions.
Even against the 49ers’ vaunted defense, it’s tough to expect a letdown game from Mahomes where he isn’t airing it out at times.
I’ll take the Chiefs QB in this prop — and maybe J.B. Holmes or another contender in Phoenix can help us out and get the number down to even 260 or 262.
THE PICK: Patrick Mahomes (KC) passing yards
Justin Bailey: SF-KC 1Q points (-1.5) vs. Justin Thomas Round 4 fairways hit
At the time of writing this prop, Justin Thomas has hit just 10 of 21 fairways (47.62%). His average amount of fairways hit is 60% over the last 75 weeks, but he’s really struggling off the tee this tournament. Even if we think he hits 50-60% of fairways on Sunday, that puts him at seven or eight.
At that rate, we’d need just 10 points to win this prop. If he’s even more erratic off the tee, it could be even fewer. It’s also worth noting that golfers typically hit 57.5% of fairways at TPC Scottsdale, which is 4% lower than an average tour event, per Fantasy National. In a game that’s projected to be high scoring, I’ll take the chance that the Chiefs and 49ers offenses show up in the first quarter.
THE PICK: SF-KC first quarter points
Michael Leboff: George Kittle receptions (-115) vs. Pitt/Wash total goals
To a casual fan, this may seem like an offensive showdown. The Pittsburgh Penguins have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, while the Washington Capitals are led by Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nick Backstrom and T.J. Oshie.
In reality, the Penguins are one of the league’s best teams at suppressing scoring chances, and they are terrific at controlling play at 5-on-5, so I think this will be a pretty low event — somewhere in the 4-5 goal range. Even if it goes beyond that, I still think Kittle should be involved enough to give his side of this prop value.
THE PICK: George Kittle receptions