Rams vs 49ers Picks: 3 Monday Night Football Best Bets
- The 49ers are favored tonight against the Rams on Monday Night Football.
- San Francisco beat Los Angeles twice last season but fell in the NFC Championship Game.
- Our three best bets for tonight's game are below.
Rams vs. 49ers Odds
|Moneyline||+110 / -130|
Rams vs. 49ers Picks
Brandon Anderson: Normally, this matchup is a no brainer. Kyle Shanahan has dominated Sean McVay at 8-3 against the spread (ATS), including 7-2 as an underdog, and had beaten him six times in a row until that late NFC Championship Game collapse.
But this is not normal. Shanahan is the favorite this time, and he's an ugly 15-26-1 ATS (37%) as a favorite. These are not the normal 49ers either. San Francisco is short its best player in LT Trent Williams, and they're also missing Trey Lance and Elijah Mitchell. That cripples a rushing attack that's usually the key matchup advantage Shanahan has against McVay, and the Rams have been terrific against the run this season anyway.
Besides, Shanahan hasn't been as dominant as it seems in this rivalry. Four of the last six have come down to a field goal, and McVay is 68% ATS as a division underdog, with short road division underdogs covering 65% of the time in Monday night games. Normally the Rams are favored in this matchup. This time the roles are switched, and I still prefer the underdog.
If San Francisco does win this game, it'll have to be because DeMeco Ryans' incredible defense dominates and forces a few turnovers. This is yet another primetime game that leans under, with both defenses better than the offenses right now. If Matt Stafford takes care of the ball, the healthier Rams should win.
Nick Giffen: The Rams have been awful against WRs so far in 2022. They've allowed over 220 yards per game to wideouts while shutting down tight ends to the tune of only 74 receiving yards total (24.7 per game)
Jennings has lined up in the slot over 60% of the time, meaning he has a prime matchup against nickel back Cobie Durant. Durant has struggled this year, giving up two yards per route run.
Additionally, my in-game model forecasts a lean to the over for Jimmy Garoppolo's passing attempts, meaning there should be a few extra passes to go around. That would bump up Jennings projection even more from the 21 median yards he's already projected for.
Sean Koerner: In the Rams offense, running back Cam Akers operates exclusively as the early-down back, while Darrell Henderson is the predominant third down and two-minute offense back.
Generally, this contributes to the fact that Akers doesn't run many pass-catching routes. Last week, he only ran five routes.
Matt Stafford is also a quarterback that doesn't like to target the running back on early downs. He's targeting backs at the third-lowest clip in the league on first and second down.
To clear two receptions, Akers needs a lot of things to go his way, and I put the fair odds on this pick closer to -230.