Ravens vs Saints Player Props: Expert Fading Chris Olave on Monday Night Football
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Olave.
Chris Olave Receptions
|Prop||Chris Olave Under 5.5 Receptions (-120)|
|Matchup||Ravens vs. Saints|
|Day, Time||Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
To be clear, this isn’t me necessarily fading Olave. He’s one of the top WRs in what has been a pretty good 2022 draft class. I’m actually showing one yard of value on his receiving yards over.
I’m also showing a 61% chance he stays under 5.5 receptions.
The reason my projections like that specific under is that he typically sees his targets downfield, on average 16.2 yards from the line of scrimmage. His 61.7% catch rate is slightly higher than what we’d expect from a player with an aDot that high. When he does haul a pass in, he tends to make the most of it.
Olave lines up on the outside about 75% of the time, meaning he’ll mostly face Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. Clearly the Saints’ No. 1 target tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens give safety help to whoever is covering him.
I’m not expecting Jarvis Landry to play too many snaps, but any that he plays will help this given his prowess in the slot.
We also need to root for a positive game script. Olave is yet to clear this receptions total in any of the Saints’ three wins this season.
The Ravens are without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman and may struggle to put up points, so it could be a run-heavy game plan that sees the clock bleed, which would help us limit the number of plays for the Saints offense.
Again, I’m showing a 61% chance he stays under 5.5 receptions tonight.