The San Francisco 49ers (1-0) and New Orleans Saints (0-1) face off in NFL Week 2 on Sunday, September 14. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The 49ers are 3-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (49ers -3), with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. San Francisco is a -170 favorite to win outright; New Orleans is +140 to pull off the upset.
49ers vs Saints is a tricky game to project as San Francisco is dealing with a plethora of injuries — notably Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Trent Williams.
Find out how you should approach this game below in my NFL Week 2 preview, which includes two 49ers vs Saints predictions for Sunday afternoon.
49ers vs Saints Prediction
- 49ers vs Saints picks: Ricky Pearsall Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-120), Alvin Kamara Under 3.5 Receptions (+100)
My Saints vs. 49ers best bets are on Ricky Pearsall and Alvin Kamara player props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
49ers vs Saints Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
49ers vs Saints NFL Week 2 Preview
San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview: Opportunity for Pearsall
Ricky Pearsall picked up right where he left off last season in Week 1 for the 49ers, posting 107 receiving yards on four catches and seven targets.
He closed last season with eight catches for 141 yards in Week 17 and six catches for 69 yards in Week 18. His performance in the final game of the season came with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, which is relevant this week since the 49ers are without Brock Purdy.
While Christian McCaffrey paced the team in targets and receptions against Seattle, Pearsall led the team in routes.
Jauan Jennings was third behind McCaffrey, and then it was a bunch of no-name veterans. Russell Gage, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Tonges and Luke Farrell all ran 12-19 routes. Skyy Moore got in there for one route.
With George Kittle on injured reserve and Jennings banged up, Pearsall and McCaffrey basically have zero competition for targets in the passing game.
Saints Betting Preview: Kamara Impacted By Philosophy Shift
At first glance, an over/under of 3.5 receptions seems like a low number for Alvin Kamara. He's been one of the premier pass catchers out of the backfield for the majority of his career.
Even when Sean Payton moved on from the Saints, Kamara maintained an elite pass-catching role.
However, the arrival of head coach Kellen Moore is almost certainly a downgrade for Kamara as a receiver.
Moore had been an offensive coordinator for the past six seasons. Here's where his offenses ranked in running back target share: 27th, 18th, 20th, 26th, 26th, 19th.
Kamara entered the league in 2017. Here are New Orleans' ranks in running back target share since he arrived: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 9th, 10th, 1st.
Last week, the Saints were 31st in running back target share. Even with Spencer Rattler throwing 46 times, Kamara managed just two catches on two targets. He tied for fifth on the team in target share with Devaughn Vele.
49ers vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
Purdy's absence is the main reason Pearsall's receiving yards line (55.5) isn't higher.
Mac Jones will step in for the 49ers. The former Alabama star flamed out in New England, but he was surprisingly competent in Jacksonville.
With the Jaguars, Jones played the majority of eight games and averaged just over 200 passing yards with a completion rate above 65%. Nothing crazy, but perfectly fine quarterback play. Kyle Shanahan has certainly done more with less.
Perhaps more importantly for Pearsall, Jones consistently fed his top target in Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr. averaged 6.5 receptions, 10 targets and 85.9 yards in those games with Jones.
As for Kamara, over/under 3.5 receptions is basically where this prop closed heading into last week's game.
It doesn't seem like the books have adjusted for Moore's impact on Kamara's production in the receiving game yet.
Picks:
- Ricky Pearsall Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Alvin Kamara Under 3.5 Receptions (+100)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this contest.
Moneyline
I will also be staying away from the moneyline market.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
