The San Francisco 49ers (4-1) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) will face off in NFL Week 6. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Buccaneers are 3-point favorites over the 49ers on the spread (Buccaneers -3), with the over/under set at 47.5. Tampa Bay is a -160 moneyline favorite and San Francisco is a +135 underdog.
Below, you can find my 49ers vs Buccaneers prediction for Week 6.
49ers vs Buccaneers Prediction
- 49ers vs Buccaneers pick: 49ers +3 (-110)
My Buccaneers vs. 49ers best bet is on San Francisco to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
49ers vs Buccaneers Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
49ers vs Buccaneers Week 6 Preview
The Buccaneers have been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season. Though in fairness, the 49ers are also ranked pretty high in our Luck Rankings.
However, the Bucs boast a record of 4-1 entering Week 6, and guess how many times they would have covered this number? Zero.
There's a disconnect between the perception and reality of how good the Bucs are because of how clutch quarterback Baker Mayfield has been, and the way he has looked in the last minute or two of games.
However, the Bucs still haven't won a game by more than three points this season.
For the Buccaneers to win by margin against the 49ers, they're going to need to do more than rely on Mayfield magic.
There isn’t much separating these teams. As already noted, they have both been fairly lucky, with the Bucs being a little bit more fortunate thus far.
So there's still the potential for overall regression looming, especially in the turnover department for Mayfield. He was clean last week, but he's been fortunate when it comes to dropped interceptions.
Both of these teams have crowded injury reports.
The 49ers have a few on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, I assume quarterback Mac Jones will play despite being listed as questionable. He's been pretty good while filling for the injured Brock Purdy; the former Patriot is ranked top-five in the league in success rate.
Jones isn't taking as many sacks and seeing less pressure this season. He's getting rid of the ball much quicker than Brock Purdy, which is exactly what you want to do against the Bucs.
Plus, San Francisco could get wide receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings back for this game, with both listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, the Bucs are beat up in the secondary, the offensive line, the backfield and at wide receiver.
The Buccaneers have been incredibly reliant on explosive plays this season, and now they draw a matchup against a San Francisco defense that has been good against the run and uses a lot of zone coverage on the back end to prevent explosives.
According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, Mayfield is 20-32-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite in his career. When coming off a straight up (SU) win, Mayfield is 2-9 ATS in his last 11 starts as a favorite.
49ers vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am ready to get hurt again by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
I’m considering the extra preparation for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, which is important, while the Bucs had a long trip back home after visiting Seattle last week.
According to Evan Abrams, the 49ers are 15-10-1 ATS when playing on short rest under Shanahan – a very respectable mark for the situation. Now, the 49ers are on extended preparation before hitting the road to face Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay's defense is just dreadful right now due to all the injuries. The Seahawks averaged eight yards per play against them last week. The Bucs won that game because they won the turnover battle (2-0), but they couldn't get a stop.
If you just go by DVOA, the Bucs are one of the worst 4-1 teams of all time. They rank 18th in DVOA; the 49ers rank 16th.
I don't think Tampa Bay should be favored by a field goal here.
Pick: 49ers +3 (-110)
Spread
My Buccaneers vs 49ers betting prediction is on San Francisco to cover the spread at +3.
Moneyline
I prefer to take the points with San Francisco as opposed to betting on them to win outright in this matchup.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this spot.
