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Falcons vs Steelers Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Fade Marcus Mariota

Falcons vs Steelers Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Fade Marcus Mariota article feature image

G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Mariota

Falcons vs Steelers Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
1 p.m. ET
Falcons Odds
-110o / -110u
Steelers Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

On a busy sports weekend, it might be easy to overlook Sunday afternoon's matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons. But don't be fooled, both of these teams are still chasing a playoff berth but have uphill battles to get there.

The Steelers are 3-4 since Kenny Pickett took over as the starting quarterback, while the Falcons are sitting just behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the race for the NFC South title.

Which team will gain ground in this one? Let's take a look.

Falcons vs. Steelers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Falcons and Steelers match up statistically:

Falcons vs. Steelers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2130
Pass DVOA2329
Rush DVOA1525
Overall DVOA1314
Pass DVOA1816
Rush DVOA88

The Steelers' offense has struggled this season, but when you consider the quarterback issues they have had, 4-7 is not a bad record. Pickett was tasked with leading a team in his rookie season, and given the pressure that comes with that, his performance has not been poor.

Where Pickett differentiates himself from his peers is his ability to scramble at the site of pressure. Pickett has logged 195 rush yards, ranking him 11th in rush yards among quarterbacks. This is even more impressive when you consider that he has only started seven games.

Bet Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta at FanDuel

Any success that the Steelers have had can be attributed to their defense. They blitz on nearly 30% of their defensive snaps, which has bolstered their rush defense numbers. They currently allow just 4 yards per rush attempt, which is amazing considering they have played potent rush offenses such as the Bills and Browns

Although the Steelers blitz often, their pressure and sack rates leave a lot to be desired. As mentioned before, the Steelers are blitzing on nearly 31% of their defensive snaps, however they are only successfully pressuring the QB on 15.4% of dropbacks.

It seems that the Steelers' blitz heavy scheme benefits them when it comes to stopping the run. Conversely, the lack of pressure they get on the pass rush gives opposing quarterbacks plenty of time to make decisions.

Betting Picks

Opposing QBs have an average of 3.5 rush attempts per game against the Steelers this season. This includes games against mobile QBs such as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow (twice) and Jalen Hurts. Only one QB has rushed seven or more times against Pittsburgh, and that was Mac Jones in Week 2. While the Steelers run a blitz-heavy defense, they aren’t getting home very often, and the mobile quarterbacks have not been forced to scramble. 

Marcus Mariota is not a great pocket passer. However, he only has more than seven rush attempts in four games this season. Tyler Allgeier has seen an increase in rush attempts, even with Cordarrelle Patterson back in the lineup. If the Falcons want to run the ball, it will be with their new found tandem in the backfield, not with their quarterback. I expect to see Mariota spend some more time in the pocket this weekend, and less time scrambling.

BetMGM has this bet at a plus number. You can use our Action Labs props tool to get the best numbers across sportsbooks.

Pick: Marcus Mariota Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (+105) | Bet to Under 6

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