Super Bowl Over/Under: Luck Rankings Show Edge on 49ers-Chiefs Total
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey (left) and Isiah Pacheco.
Super Bowl Over/Under: Luck Rankings Show Edge on 49ers-Chiefs Total
The Action Network Luck Rankings had a great regular season, going 50-30-3 on luck-based sides and totals. The playoffs have been right around the same, hitting at a 5-3 clip.
This year's Super Bowl joins four of the previous five by having a luck-based trend on the total.
For more on how to use the Luck Rankings in the playoffs, check out the piece I wrote ahead of Wild Card Weekend, where I outline the trends we use to evaluate sides and totals in the playoffs.
Super Bowl Over/Under Prediction
The 2024 Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs has a Luck Total of +2.56, putting it well above the +1.0 threshold for a playoff Luck Over. More specifically, Luck Totals above +1.6 are 10-3 to the over in the playoffs since 2018.
Four of the last five Super Bowls have also had a play on the total. Aside from last year, when the Luck Total was -0.05 and not large enough in magnitude to constitute significant luck, the other four title games have all had Luck Totals below -2.5, making all four Luck Unders. In the end, all four of those games stayed under their closing total for a perfect 4-0 record on luck-based plays in the Super Bowl.
This year's Luck Total (+2.56) breaks down as following:
- Kansas City Luck Team Total (+2.75) = Kansas City Offense (+0.77) + San Francisco Defense (+1.98)
- San Francisco Luck Team Total (-0.19) = San Francisco Offense (-0.52) + Kansas City Defense (+0.33)
In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers and Detroit Lions played to a combined total of 65 points, which was 3.5 points above the 61.5 combined Expected Score. However, in the AFC it was Kansas City and the Baltimore Ravens combining for just 27 points compared to a 37.4 combined Expected Score, meaning that game was 10.4 points below expectation.
The question is, should you bet the over here?
My personal model, which uses recency-weighted schedule-adjusted Expected Scores and adjusts for specific roster changes and weather factors, puts this between 47 and 47.5. So, while I won't have a play on the total, it's hard to argue against the luck-based trends that we've seen throughout the history of the Luck Rankings.
A sharper play may be on the first-half total, where we get the scripted plays as well as the fact that these teams play at a faster pace in the first half, as any leading scenario or a close game in the second half shows a slower-than-expected pace.
However, in a game with a plethora of props available to us, I'm staying away from one of the sharpest markets for the Super Bowl. I wouldn't blame you, though, if you tailed the Luck Rankings by taking the over.
What is QuickSlip?
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