NFL Luck Rankings Predictions: Previewing All 6 Wild Card Weekend Games
Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
NFL Luck Rankings Predictions: Previewing All 6 Wild Card Weekend Games
The regular season was a successful one for NFL Luck Rankings predictions.
- Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that met one of our three criteria were 14-10-2 (57.7%) against the spread (ATS)
- Luck Unders were 30-19-1 (61.0%) to the under
- Luck Overs were 6-1-0 (85.7%) to the over
Overall, a bet on any luck-based side or total ended with a 50-30-3 (62.0%) record. Betting to win $100 each at -110 odds equates to $1,700 profit and an ROI of 20.5% over 83 total bets.
The Luck Rankings have proved effective in playoff betting, as well, especially on totals. Of course, you must always consider other factors than just the rankings, but they're a great place to start when handicapping your sides and totals for the playoffs.
Luck Rankings Playoff Trends
Luck Totals
The main playoff trend to worry about in the postseason is around Luck Totals.
Over the last five years (61 games), there has been a statistically significant correlation between the magnitude of the Luck Total and the probability of the game going over or under its closing total.
In the image above, as an example, you see that based on those 61 games, the crosshairs show that a game with a Luck Total of -1.2 has historically had a 60% chance of staying under the closing total. We can slide the reference lines to the left or right along the blue line. Sliding to the right means a higher probability of going over the closing total, which corresponds with a positive Luck Total. Sliding to the left correlates with a higher probability of going under the closing totals.
Using that data, we can break down Luck Totals into the following bins over the last five years.
- Luck Totals of +1 or higher are 9-5 (64.3%) to the over
- Luck Totals of -1 or lower are 20-6 (76.9%) to the under
- Luck Totals between -1 and +1 are 11-10 to the over (52.4%)
So, if the Luck Total has an absolute value greater than one, games are 29-11 (72.5%) directionally either to the over or under, depending on whether the Luck Total is positive or negative.
These are technically predictive results since the Luck Totals stem from regular-season data (and any subsequent rounds of the playoffs) that are then used to "predict" whether the game will go over or under the closing total.
For Wild Card Weekend, five of the six games have a Luck Total not only beyond the one-point threshold, but all are beyond at least the 2.5-point threshold.
Luck Matchups
Luck Matchups theoretically should continue throughout the playoffs since they use the same data that helped the Luck Rankings to a 63% long-term success rate. That means any game with a Luck Difference of at least 24 places or a Luck Gap of at least 30% would qualify.
However, because luck tends to regress over the long run and because over-performing teams tend to end up in the playoffs, it's quite rare to get a luck game in the playoffs. There have only been two since 2018, both occurring on Wild Card Weekend before the playoffs expanded to seven teams in each conference.
In both cases, the unlucky team was a No. 4 seed as a favored home team against the No. 5 seed. Not only did both teams fail to cover, but they lost outright.
- 2018 Ravens vs. Chargers
- 2019 Eagles vs. Seahawks
We do have one luck-based matchup for Wild Card Weekend, but it is not a 4 vs. 5 matchup.
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Wild Card Weekend Luck Rankings Game-by-Game Breakdown
With a Luck Difference of just six and Luck Gap of 7.9%, there isn't enough to use luck as a major factor in picking a side.
On the other hand, the Luck Total of -5.5 is the lowest of all six Wild Card Weekend games, showing a strong signal to the under. In fact, that -5.5 number would qualify as a Luck Under in the regular season since it's below the -5 threshold, of which games are around 60% to the under historically.
A lot of this stems from the last five games for each team. Perhaps not coincidentally, that's also one game after Joe Flacco became the Browns' starting quarterback.
Since Week 14, there have been nine games involving these two teams, and all nine have had a total went above the Expected Score total based on play-by-play data. In fact, the last five games for each team contribute almost exactly half of the -5.5 Luck Total for the game. That means there's probably a significant recency bias effect in play, which seems to be playing out as the majority of bets and money are on the over for this game.
Luck unders are also 21-11 (65.6%) to the under when teams meet for a second time in the same season (including the playoffs). These two teams met back in Week 16 and combined for 58 points in a game that had an Expected Score of 51.9 points.
I've already bet the under since 44 is the third-most key number of all totals since the NFL changed the extra point rules in 2015.
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These two teams met back in Week 9, with Kansas City prevailing 21-14 in Germany. The Luck Difference of just two places and the 1.6% Luck Gap is so minimal that luck isn't a factor in betting a side.
That said, a lot of the same trends that apply to Browns-Texans total apply here.
The Luck Total of -4.6 is the second-lowest of Wild Card Weekend. That low Luck Total based on the 61-game sample size for the last five years of playoffs would typically stay under around 78.6% of the time according to a best-fit logistic regression. It's worth noting, though, that's just a rough estimate based on only this 61-game sample size and should be considered quite fragile until sample sizes are increased.
Luck Totals below -2.5 are 14-3 to the under in the playoffs over the last five years, and we get the repeat matchup angle that should also play a factor toward the under.
Then, there's the weather, which isn't a luck factor but should be taken into strong consideration when analyzing the total. With temperatures near zero degrees and winds into the double digits mph, the total should be lower than a traditional game in comfortable weather.
Using Expected Scores, I get that this game should be around 44 points prior to the weather considerations, so I'll gladly back the under here.
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This is the one game all Wild Card Weekend with no major luck factors for either the side or total. The Luck Difference of five and the Luck Gap of 1.5% are quite minimal with Dallas technically the unlucky team in this one.
The Luck Total is just -0.5 meaning there should be no impact of scoring regression hitting these teams. I personally have the total at 50, which isn't different enough from 50.5. That 0.5 difference between my model and the current total can almost completely be described by the Luck Total, but it's not enough of a difference to bet.
Verdict: Pass
The Luck Difference of eight and Luck Gap of 9.5% are the second-largest of Wild Card Weekend, plus we get the bonus that the Rams are the unlucky team on the road, which has traditionally shown stronger signals than home unlucky teams.
For me, that gives this game a slight luck-based lean on the Rams, but I also like them for other reasons — namely their improved efficiency when all of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, and Puka Nacua are on the field together.
The Luck Total of -4.2 does make the under a bit interesting from a luck perspective, but I'm not quite there on the under yet. While 78% of the Bets are on the over, 50% of the money is on the under showing the under is the sharper side. That said, my model has this at around 51.25 and our PRO Projections are at 51.1.
I'm going to wait this one out and hope the public continues to bet this total up.
Verdict: Lean Rams +3.5; monitor the under
We get a double Luck factor in this game.
If you followed the Luck Rankings during the regular season, you'll know the Steelers have been near the top pretty much the entire campaign. They indeed topped our end-of-season Luck Rankings, while the Bills sit 25th.
That difference of 24 places is enough to consider luck a factor when picking a side in this matchup. I was able to grab the Bills at -7.5 when lines opened on Sunday night but based on schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, recent play, T.J. Watt's absence and QB play with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, I'm projecting this closer to -10.5 for Buffalo.
As far as the total, this is the only game of Wild Card Weekend with a positive Luck Total. The 2.8 number puts this in a pretty moderate signal to the over.
Like Kansas City vs. Miami, there could be impact from the weather as strong winds plus potential snow is forecast. That's rightly why this game's total has lowered from as high as 43 at some places in the lookahead to 36 now.
My model put this closer to 42.5 in normal weather, but adding in the weather factor I can get behind a touchdown lower. Since this game just moved from 36.5 to 36 shortly before I wrote this, I'm willing to wait for 35.5 as 36 is still a relatively key number, but 35 is the least key number from 33 to 37 for totals.
Verdict: Bet the over at 35.5
This game could be considered the Luck Bowl of the playoffs as Philadelphia and Tampa Bay sat at Nos. 2 and 3 in our end-of-season Luck Rankings. Therefore, that Luck Difference of just one place as well as the Luck Gap of 0.1% show there's absolutely no luck factor when picking a side here. Both have equally fraudulent records.
On the other hand, the Luck Total of -3.4 does give a playoff signal to the under, although it's not quite as strong as the other four luck-based unders. The public seems to be betting the under here with 91% of the tickets and 96% of the money on that side of the total, but I'm not there yet.
Again, 44 is such a key number for totals and I have that as the most likely outcome of this game. I make this total 43.8 with a lean toward the over given the Eagles' recent defensive struggles.
I'll pass on this, despite the luck signal to the under.
Verdict: Pass
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