Super Bowl Over/Under, Total Pick: Expert Lays Out Chiefs vs Eagles Edge

Super Bowl Over/Under, Total Pick: Expert Lays Out Chiefs vs Eagles Edge article feature image

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Jones.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds

Chiefs Odds+1.5
Eagles Odds-1.5
Moneyline-100 / -120
TimeSunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet.
The ultimate sports betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our projection model's biggest edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

Both offenses are capable of putting up points, but this total is a bit inflated. I’m projecting it closer to 48.5.

Our Luck Rankings, which have gone 23-7 on totals since Week 12, are showing a -2 rating on the total, which would make this a lean.

The Eagles are able to generate pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL despite blitzing at a league-average rate (16th). This, combined with their excellent secondary is why the Eagles are first in Pass DVOA. This defense could be able to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ top-ranked offense.

The Chiefs will likely use a lot of two- and three-tight end sets and lean on their run game and throw underneath a bit more than usual. Their scoring drives could take a lot of time off the clock.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are likely to lean on their elite run game in an attempt to shorten the game and keep Mahomes off the field.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo disguises coverages well and could frustrate Jalen Hurts. The 49ers did a great job of this in the NFC Championship Game and Hurts struggled. Of course, it didn’t matter since San Francisco didn’t have a quarterback in the second half.

This number went up to the key number of 51 with 58% of the bets and 62% of the money coming in on the over.

As of 11:40 a.m. ET on Sunday, PointsBet, Caesars, DraftKings, BetRivers and bet365 all have the total at 51.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.