The Favorites Pick ’Em Contest: NFL Week 16 Tiebreaker Strategy
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.
With the launch of The Favorites' NFL pick 'em contest, which is free to play, we decided on tiebreaker props to settle the winners of the $3,000 in weekly prizes.
In Week 15, brian_vendetti and joshua_brady tied for first place as they came within a single yard of nailing the passing yards tiebreaker (340). It was a far lower total than projected as most guesses were in the 400s.
This week, we're back to rushing yards for Ravens vs. 49ers on the Christmas edition of Monday Night Football.
Important note: You can sign up for this contest at any point during the season.
Week 15 Tiebreaker: Total Rushing Yards — Ravens vs. 49ers (-5)
With Baltimore losing another running back to injury (Keaton Mitchell; torn ACL), its rushing production is even harder to project than usual. We currently have the trifecta of Justice Hill, Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon combining for 70 yards on the ground. The tough matchup and likely negative game script against the 49ers is one factor — most of the rushing production going through Lamar Jackson is the other.
The Ravens quarterback is projected to add another 43 rushing yards, which brings Baltimore's grand total to 113.
San Francisco is expected to get around nine yards from Brock Purdy and an additional 99 from its combination of running backs and fullback. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel projects for another 14 — that gives the 49ers a final tally of 122.
Both teams combine for 235 projected rushing yards.
My Recommendation: Upper 200s
There's a wider-than-usual range of outcomes thanks to the explosive abilities of the ball-carriers involved. Christian McCaffrey has multiple runs of 60-plus yards and Jackson has two games with at least 97 rushing yards. On the pessimistic side, both teams feature strong defenses, so we could see lowered offensive production in general.
If forced to pick, I slightly prefer going too high over too low. Really though, the best option is to avoid the middle. Not only is that where the bulk of the guesses will come in, it's also less likely to be correct this week.
Trying to correlate your guess with a spread pick is also tricky. San Francisco could cover the five-point spread by shutting down the Ravens' ground game while scoring through the air. Conversely, the 49ers could also rely on a big night from McCaffrey while playing bend-but-don't-break defense that allows the Ravens to pick up yards on the ground.
However, on Baltimore's side, it's a bit harder to see them having a big game through the air. San Francisco has the fourth-best passing defense by DVOA, but ranks just 18th against the run. Coupled with the likelihood that Jackson has a big rushing game in a Ravens win/cover, they probably pick up plenty of rushing yards.
Therefore, if picking the Ravens, I'd almost certainly skew to the high side with the rushing yards tiebreaker. If going with the 49ers, it's less obvious, but I'd lean toward a lower guess.
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