The Favorites Pick’em Contest: NFL Week 17 Tiebreaker Strategy
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers.
With the launch of The Favorites' NFL pick'em contest, which is free to play, we decided on tiebreaker props to settle the winners of the $3,000 in weekly prizes.
In Week 16 the actual rushing yards total on Monday Night Football of 224 came remarkably close to our projections of 235, with Llama_titan taking down the $1,500 top prize by themself. We'll see if anyone can hit the exact mark this week.
With no Monday Night Football in Week 17, we're using passing yards on Sunday Night Football between the Packers and Vikings as our tiebreaker.
Important note: You can sign up for this contest at any point during the season.
Week 17 Tiebreaker: Total Passing Yards — Vikings vs. Packers (+2)
Fortunately for fans of offense, this game is indoors in Minnesota rather than outside at Lambeau, which helps the passing projection for both teams. Minnesota is banged up offensively after losing TJ Hockenson to a torn ACL, but Nick Mullens connected with Justin Jefferson for over 140 yards last week, so that connection seems to be strong.
We have Mullens projected for another 233 yards in Week 17, with 100 of those going to Jefferson. It's worth noting that number two wideout Jordan Addison is also day-to-day with an ankle injury that he suffered in Week 16. If he were to miss, Minnesota would be incredibly thin behind Jefferson which would drag Mullens' projection down considerably.
On the Packers' side, Jordan Love is projecting for an identical 233 passing yards, roughly in line with his seasonal average of 239. However, his projection is also fragile at this point in the week. Three of the Packers' top four wideouts have questionable tags as of Thursday morning. Two of the three (Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks) missed practice on Wednesday, while Jayden Reed got in a limited session.
My Recommendation: Mid 300s
My best recommendation is to wait as late as possible before entering a tiebreaker guess on this game. There's too many moving parts at pass catcher for both teams, and it's pretty easy to see a scenario where both offenses fail. If Green Bay is down both Watson and Wicks while Minnesota is without Addison and Hockenson, this could turn into a pretty miserable game offensively.
By the time we get the final injury report, you'll know if you have a shot at going five for five on spread picks (or you already have) in which case you can go back and edit your tiebreaker suggestion. Keep in mind, that also necessitates updating your picks on any other games that have yet to kick off, so it's probably best to wait until after every other game has started.
Outside of injury concerns, I want to be on the lower side of the field here, though. We've seen plenty of backup quarterbacks play well for a few starts before regressing which could happen to Mullens at any moment. Love could also struggle against a tough Vikings pass defense that ranks seventh in DVOA. Either of those scenarios seem far more plausible than this one turning into a shootout, especially given the injury situation for both receiving corps.
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