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The seventh week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 7, including picks for Steelers vs. Saints, Browns vs. Titans, Colts vs. Vikings, and more.
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NFL Player Props — Week 7
- Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (-122 at FanDuel)
- Cam Ward Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-113 at DraftKings)
- Kyler Murray Over 0.5 Interceptions (+153 at DraftKings)
- Spencer Shrader Over 6.5 Kicking Points (+108 at DraftKings)
Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions
Here I go again, another Rodgers INT under after losing two already this year.
Rodgers has thrown an INT in four of six games, but he has been one of the unluckiest QBs for INTs on the season. His five picks come off just six turnover worth plays (TWPs), which is more than a full INT above expected.
He now faces the Saints who had just one interception on only three TWPs forced in their first five games. Then last week they faced Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy, who own two of the highest career TWP rates among active QBs and ultimately picked them off three times in three games.
Aaron Rodgers' career TWP rate and his rate as a Steeler is 2.3%, or less than half of Winston and McCarthy, who both have a 4.7% career TWP rate.
Also, in those first five Saints games, they defended just 13 passes which translates 2.6 per game.
At a 19% INT rate per pass defended, which is the historic long-term average, that equates to around half an interception per game forced, well below the league average of around 0.7.
Rodgers' deserved INT rate this season is also at around that half an INT mark, showing just how bad his luck has been (especially with his receivers gifting opposing defenses two INTs).
Remember, he's thrown an INT in just 10 of 24 games as a Steeler. So, while we're remembering the four-in-six rate to start the season, it certainly appears as a bad luck anomaly when we look at his longer-term rate.
I have him projected for 0.47 INTs, staying under more than 60% of the time.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (-122 at FanDuel)
Cam Ward Under 31.5 Pass Attempts
I'm honestly shocked Ward's pass attempt line is this high, considering he's averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game this season, despite the Titans' 1-5 record with mostly trailing game scripts.
The most attempts Ward has thrown this year is 36 (twice), but in the two game scripts where the Titans ran offensive plays while tied or leading in the second half, Ward averaged 21 pass attempts in those games.
The Titans actually lead the league in rush rate when tied or leading in the second half, so that's going to be a key to winning this prop.
With Tennessee sitting as underdogs by less than a field goal, this will be one of the better chances for the Titans to roll into the second half with another tied or leading game script, especially when we consider the Browns are No. 1 in our NFL Luck Rankings.
My model, which you can see in the Luck Rankings Dashboard, has the Titans actually slightly favored to win this game. If that's the case, Ward should stay under his pass attempts quite easily.
I'm projecting around 29 pass attempts for Ward — and parlaying this with the Titans to cover the spread is a nicely correlated bet as well, which I gave out on Friday in the SGP Workshop show in the Action Network Discord.
Pick: Cam Ward Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-113 at DraftKings)
Kyler Murray Over 0.5 Interceptions
This is a crazy high price for Murray, who has a 0.8% TWP rate this season but a 2.0% TWP rate since 2023 (when it lowered from the mid-to-high 2s the first four years of his career).
I'd expect Murray to revert to his longer-term form, although we can't rule out a lower rate based off the switch to a new team.
Still, a 0.8% rate would be nearly half a percentage point lower than the lowest TWP rate of the past decade (1.2% by Tom Brady in 2016 and 2017 by Matt Ryan per PFF).
That means we should definitely expect some regression upward for Murray, especially against a Colts defense that has a top-10 pass defended rate this season, and who force their opponents to throw it a bit deeper than average.
Indy has forced a 2.2% higher pass defended rate against opposing QBs than their normal season rates when not facing Indy, which is an important adjustment because aside from Kaliakmanis, they've only faced QBs with league average or lower TWP rates.
The Colts' two INTs on six TWPs and 27 passes defended is on the extremely unlucky side.
That means we're hitting the perfect luck storm: Murray has been extremely lucky with TWP rate, while the Colts defense has been extremely unlucky in converting TWPs and passes defended into INTs.
I have Kyler at around 48% to throw an INT, so this bet is a likely loser. But at +153 odds, we have to take it.
Pick: Kyler Murray Over 0.5 Interceptions (+153 at DraftKings)
Spencer Shrader Over 6.5 Kicking Points
My model projects Shrader for 7.4 kicking points, thanks in part to his leg, and the indoor factor making the 50+ yard field goals quite attainable where he's already six for six on the season and seven for eight in his career (which is his only career FG miss).
The lower total of 41.5 in this game means both teams could potentially settle for field goals as points become more valuable, so if you want to pivot to over 1.5 FGM, those are solid prices at DK and MGM.
The expected ROI on these based off my model is slightly lower, but pretty comparable to the over 6.5 kicking points. The over 1.5 FGM is a bit more likely to hit, so it's a trade-off.
I'll gladly take a kicker that's attempted 32 FGs in 11 games with the Colts and has been as accurate as any kicker in the league during that span.
Pick: Spencer Shrader Over 6.5 Kicking Points (+108 at DraftKings)
