Four NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Quick Over/Under 28.0 Total Saves?
Most people tonight will be watching the national title game between Villanova and Michigan — but don’t forget about hockey! Tonight’s NHL slate features six games, and that is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are four props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 7:30, and 10:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Sabres C Jack Eichel over 3.5 shots on goal (-115 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
Eichel has averaged 4.0 and 3.73 shots on goal over the past month and year, good enough to place in the 99th and 98th percentile in both categories. The matchup is favorable against Toronto, which over the past year is allowing the second-highest Corsi on the slate. Despite the Sabres’ bottom-four Corsi For over the past month, Eichel individually has had over 3.5 shots on goal in six of his past seven games.
Panthers G Roberto Luongo over 31.5 total saves (-110 at Bovada)
7:30 p.m. ET
Luongo should be busy today against the Hurricanes, who (despite having nothing left to play for) own the third-highest Corsi For over the past month (51.78). Further, the Panthers aren’t likely to limit shot attempts, as they have allowed the third-most shot attempts over the past month. Our Save Prediction metric currently projects Luongo for 36.44 saves tonight, most on the slate, with the Hurricanes leading the way in Expected Corsi For even on the road.
Kings D Drew Doughty over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET
As highlighted on today’s Inside the Lab, Doughty is in a smash spot against the Avalanche with Jake Muzzin expected to miss tonight’s game (upper body). Doughty has seen his ice time spike to 29:04 and 29:18 minutes in his past two games without Muzzin, up from his average of 26:47 this season. In his past five games with 29 or more minutes played, Doughty has registered three or more shots four times, and the Avalanche lead the slate in Corsi Against over the past month. With the line set at just 2.5 shots, this looks like a prime opportunity to fire at an 87th percentile shooter with a recently expanded role in a fantastic shots-driven matchup.
Kings G Jonathan Quick under 28.0 total saves (-115 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET
In contrast to Doughty, Quick won’t likely be asked to shoulder a huge load tonight against Colorado. The Avalanche boast the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For, and over the past month they have allowed opposing goaltenders to register more than 28 total saves in only five of 16 games. Quick’s 26.37 Save Prediction is the lowest on the slate, so the path of least resistance could lean to the under, given the matchup and the Kings’ stout defense, which has allowed the fourth-fewest shot attempts over the past month.
Note: Quick is currently expected to start but has not been confirmed. Keep an eye on our Starting Goalies page for further updates on his status.
Pictured above: Jonathan Quick