How Sharps Are Betting Capitals vs. Hurricanes Game 7
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Braden Holtby and Michael Ferland
- Unders have been historically profitable in NHL Game 7s, so are sharps riding that train in tonight's Caps-Canes matchup?
- Betting market percentages and Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal the bet wiseguys are making.
After two NHL series came to an end last night, the third and final first-round Game 7 will take place tonight in Washington.
Home teams have dominated the Caps-Canes battle thus far, going 6-0 and outscoring visitors 26-8. On that note, the Capitals are fairly sizable favorites — listed around -150 — on their home ice tonight.
That moneyline hasn’t been the main target of sharp bettors, though. Instead, their favorite bet has seemed to come on the total of 5.5 goals.
John Ewing wrote earlier today about the historically profitable trend of Game 7 unders, which have hit at a 56% clip since 1996. The question is, are sharps buying into that trend continuing tonight?
In short: yes. In long …
Perhaps thanks to two overs hitting last night, or simply just a general public attraction to overs, only 34% of bettors have faith in this game seeing five goals or fewer. However, the juice on this under has made its way from -110 this morning up to a consensus -120 at the time of writing.
The movement away from the popular side is almost always a result of sharper bettors — whose opinions are much more valued by oddsmakers — being among the minority. Two factors confirm that to be the case tonight: money percentages and Sports Insights Bet Signals.
The 34% of bets on the under have accounted for 55% of actual money being wagered on the total. While that’s not much of a liability for sportsbooks, the discrepancy between tickets and dollars means bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are on the under.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals — triggered by market-wide line movement that stems from professional action — have also revealed smart money hitting the under.
A few shops have even juiced up the under to -125, so it’s certainly possible that the market consensus would continue its line movement leading up to puck drop.